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OOTP Statistical Analysis/Nerding Thread
- Thread starter Travis7401
- Start date
I ran a multi-variable linear regression analysis on the 2049 data vs OSA ratings for all batters who played at least 40 games. I analyzed the following variables and how they relate to WAR:
Contact
Gap
Power
Eye
Ks
Defense (calculated based on listed position, I believe)
Speed
Steals
Base running
So before I reveal the information in a huge press release, I ask Utopian WBL owners the following questions:
1. Rank these ratings in order of importance.
2. Are any of them so irrelevant that they wash out completely when compared to more important variables?
Contact
Gap
Power
Eye
Ks
Defense (calculated based on listed position, I believe)
Speed
Steals
Base running
So before I reveal the information in a huge press release, I ask Utopian WBL owners the following questions:
1. Rank these ratings in order of importance.
2. Are any of them so irrelevant that they wash out completely when compared to more important variables?
Lloyd Carr
Well-Known Member
insider secrets!
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
It's pretty impressive that this league puts heads together to figure out the inner workings of the game and shares so openly. Once we've completely figured out the game we should all go out and dominate other online leagues.
Forget the Spacetopia league, this place is turning into a Jedi Academy.
Forget the Spacetopia league, this place is turning into a Jedi Academy.
Nobody will care
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
To me, it goes like this:
Contact
Power
Eye
Least important is avoid k's- being so afraid of strikeouts really burned me with Tsao.
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
This is awesome
One guess from Karl, any others?
steals dont matter at all when compared to baserunning. Steal 100 bases but get caught 100 times and you still suck.
Speed doesnt matter at all when compared to defense and baserunning either.
I personally rank
Contact
Power
Defense
Ks
Eye
Baserunning
Gap
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
I am OU but I value eye more than he does.
Gooksta got me on the avoid Ks
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
With Richmond I had a guy that was like 45/50 contact, poor eye, and then 80 avoid Ks. He wasn't replacement level I don't think.
I'm not trying to prove a point with that, it just popped in my head.
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Avoid k with high contact and good gap is lethal imo
Speed plays a role in both though
Gooksta posits that with the above average stuff most starters have and the favor they garner with GMs over low stuff high movement, that Ks are more important now than ever. I agree with him on that. Walks are very important, it's hard to rank them. It's why i just trade for guys with all 5 tools
But it isnt worth ranking if it doesnt translate. 80 speed but cant steal at a good clip and sucks at defense? Cool. That's why using the end stats and not the influential stats is my preference
It seems like everyone has a pretty decent fundamental idea of what is important, which really shows what great computers our brains are that they are essentially doing the same regression stuff on the fly. Karl got the top 3 right, OU was pretty close across the board. and Mr Radpants made a good observation about how he values eye more.
For the 2049 data set, here are your most important variables in the correlation between ratings and WAR:
1. Contact
2. Power
3. Eye
4/5. Ks/Defense (basically tied statistically)
6. Gap
Base running, Speed, and Stealing all washed out compared to the others. That isn't to say they aren't important for individual players, just that there are a lot of successful players who don't have good attributes in these areas and a lot of unsuccessful players who do. I think with speed/stealing being related to youth at times could factor in to why this washes out.
Anyone care to take a guess how important contact and power are compared to everything else?
For the 2049 data set, here are your most important variables in the correlation between ratings and WAR:
1. Contact
2. Power
3. Eye
4/5. Ks/Defense (basically tied statistically)
6. Gap
Base running, Speed, and Stealing all washed out compared to the others. That isn't to say they aren't important for individual players, just that there are a lot of successful players who don't have good attributes in these areas and a lot of unsuccessful players who do. I think with speed/stealing being related to youth at times could factor in to why this washes out.
Anyone care to take a guess how important contact and power are compared to everything else?
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Less strikeouts = more batted balls in play. Which can lead to more productive outs/and more hits. Downside, could lead to more double plays
They are the worst without a decent BABIP
The problem is without speed many of those guys don't play to their position or defensive ratings.
Contact and power are obviously way more important.
I also think baserunning would be more important than you think. For ages in the ubl/wbl you couldnt get guys to have positive BsRs because of the way steals were coded. Obviously that's fixed now and i had great success with it. As more people start to steal i think you'll see the value go up.
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Productive outs can lead to runs over a strikeout. A pitcher who can have a 10-12 strike out game that is close to 50% of unproductive outs in a game.. that just kills offensive production.
I'll take a ground out that advances a runner over a strikeout any day of the week.
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But if they have good defensive stats it doesnt matter what their speed is. Also speed has no bearing on steal rating either, not even a little bit. Might on production of course.
I didnt know travis was doing ratings, i thought it was based on stats. If the stats show he can run and play defense then you dont care how fast he is
Most are fast that can do both, but some arent
That's what I'm saying. They don't have good defensive stats without the speed, even if their defensive ratings are good. I'm talking about having bad speed too, not saying they need 80.
Yeah, I think there are really some areas where you just have to look at stats and defense and stealing are two of them, especially when you can establish year over year trends showing the direction they might be moving as well. For instance, There are some guys who have average defensive ratings who put up decent or neutral numbers when they look like they should be a liability and then you've got guys who have good defensive ratings who end up as a liability. I'll believe the stats on those guys over the ratings, honestly.
For me last season, Mike Harris was a neutral defender when his ratings would indicate he should be a liability (45-60-50 Outfield ratings and 55 position). Sean Hollingsworth was a liability when his ratings (50-55-70 Outfield ratings and 60 POS) indicate he should be at least neutral or even + defender. Hollingsworths year over year defensive stats show that he started strong and then has regressed every season. Mike Harris started very poor at defense in the minors and has gradually gotten better every season until now he's only a slight liability to neutral when I played him in the field last season
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Right, avoid k with high contact and great speed and overall baserunning ability can be a game changer.. why I am so excited for rocky and Turtle
Mosterd is good iirc. Ive also had low speed guys have high baserunning and steal well enough. That's what im saying, speed doesnt always translate making it a bad marker. What does translate is looking at their defense, their xbh, and their steals
Btw baserunning doesnt have anything to do with steals either. It's only for the initial hit and once your on base
Gooksta is right in looking for certain combinations that play well too. That's one thing that you miss when you just throw the whole mess together in one pot and perform a regression analysis. Speed/stealing/base running probably matter a lot more for your leadoff types (looking for high OBP) than they do for your power types.
If I didn't have what I have, I would build on types. It's what I look for in guys who don't have a tool or two. Gooksta has probably my favorite type in 3-4 of his prospects with his contact/k/steal combo.
The combo I hate the most is average contact high power.
So if I give "GAP" a baseline importance of "1" here are the relative importance of the other variables in the correlation.
Contact - 4.9
Power - 2.4
Eye - 1.7
Ks/Defense - 1.35
Gap - 1
You can see that GAP is by far the least correlated variable (sorry @Schauwn ). Contact almost 5x as important as Gap and is still almost double as important as power, which surprises me. If you have a player with ++ Contact and Power they will almost always be a positive player.
Contact - 4.9
Power - 2.4
Eye - 1.7
Ks/Defense - 1.35
Gap - 1
You can see that GAP is by far the least correlated variable (sorry @Schauwn ). Contact almost 5x as important as Gap and is still almost double as important as power, which surprises me. If you have a player with ++ Contact and Power they will almost always be a positive player.
Raffy is the best example of a ratings lie. Should be great at SB, 70 speed, 80 BR, 70 steal but you better not give him the green light ever.
http://utopia.allsimbaseball9.com/game/lgreports/players/player_12860.html
http://utopia.allsimbaseball9.com/game/lgreports/players/player_12860.html
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
That's a cool thought.
And it's my favorite
that's why we made for good trade partners.
I'm talking more about defense, as I don't pay attention to steals close enough. I think if you have 25 speed your defensive stats are shit regardless of ratings. I'm sure there are exceptions, but I have seen that trend.
Stat trends seem to definitely be the best indicator though.
That's what I was tom bout. Mosterd +7 ZR in RF but has 25 speed. I'm just saying if you look at speed at all you're going to steer yourself wrong at some point. Influential ratings just aren't important to me. If I had a guy with no stats they would be good to look at, but we don't have those anymore.
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
Not sure what's more annoying, Rene insisting there are no exceptions or him never getting injuries.
It could be an aberration, he was -16ZR at 23 and -7ZR split across RF/LF last year. I don't think his ratings were up to the levels they are now though. In the end speed influences but not as much as you would think. If you gave a guy 0 speed and 250 across the board at SS defensively he would be a boss. Steals are just a different animal though, guys either have the skill or they don't no matter what the rating says.
It is also worth noting that Contact alone seems to be just as good or better at predicting WAR as the player's "Overall" rating. If you take Contact and Power into account it is definitely better than the "overall" for predicting performance.
I'm still working on my overall BTT analysis system to see if any of the other player traits seem to have any positive correlation. Then I'm going to see if there are some combinations that are particularly successful compared to what you'd expect based on the regression analysis.
I'm still working on my overall BTT analysis system to see if any of the other player traits seem to have any positive correlation. Then I'm going to see if there are some combinations that are particularly successful compared to what you'd expect based on the regression analysis.
Brb.
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
@OU11 I disagree with baserunning instincts don't affect base stealing.. In my observations, the better the rating on baserunning instincts, the better the base stealer.. but, it doesn't ensure success, but it helps increase successfullnes in base stealing overall. A guy with 80 in all 3 can have a crappy season, but he is more likely to have succesful base stealing numbers than someone who has 80/80 in speed and base stealing and 50 in baserunning instincts