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OOTP Statistical Analysis/Nerding Thread

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
Power 100/80

Doesn't that just shows you stupid your scout is? It's your scouts opinion flying over what's actually possible, isn't it? That's how I understood that setting.

I think our league nailed it from the start with ratings. I use meaningless stars and 20/80 in all my leagues. One of my biggest beefs with other online leagues is they use 1/10 or 1/100 or 1/20. I don't even think I could play in another league for that reason.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
FWIW, the 20-80 scale isn't "out of 80" because it isn't limited on either end, technically. It is where the scale is cut off because there is little point in trying to distinguish if a player is more than 3 stdevs above or below average. in the bottom end it is cut off because there is no sense in rating someone 4stdevs from average because they are so bad they aren't worth scouting. On the top end, there might be one player per generation or two who exceeds 4stdevs from average.

Carrier was over 4 st devs above average last season so he'd technically be a "90" rated player on the 20-80 scale. He was the only player outside 3 stdevs from average.
 

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
motorguide-trolling-motor-300x684.jpg
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
FWIW, the 20-80 scale isn't "out of 80" because it isn't limited on either end, technically. It is where the scale is cut off because there is little point in trying to distinguish if a player is more than 3 stdevs above or below average. in the bottom end it is cut off because there is no sense in rating someone 4stdevs from average because they are so bad they aren't worth scouting. On the top end, there might be one player per generation or two who exceeds 4stdevs from average.

Carrier was over 4 st devs above average last season so he'd technically be a "90" rated player on the 20-80 scale. He was the only player outside 3 stdevs from average.
Idk if this makes you happy or sad but 80 is achieved when the players rating from 0-250 hits 185ish. So 80 can mean 48 HRs or 60 HRs on average for a player using power as an example.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Idk if this makes you happy or sad but 80 is achieved when the players rating from 0-250 hits 185ish. So 80 can mean 48 HRs or 60 HRs on average for a player using power as an example.

Lets not conflate power rating with HR stats (if power = how far a player can hard player can hit a ball then the home run number might not reflect an 80 rating if the other ratings like contact aren't also great), but the idea is that the top end of the "20-80" scale would only be limited by the limits of human physiology, and thus could certainly exceed 3 standard deviations (80) from the average (50). Since these cases are so rare as to not be worth adding extra space on the scale, we simply call them "80" and figure that's descriptive enough.

So the best example I can give is speed since we have hard measurements for that. This isn't opinion. Lets assume the speed of an average (50 rated) baseball player in the 60 yard (55m) dash is like 7 seconds and exceptionally fast (80 rated) players run it in under 6.4 seconds (looking this up there are only handful of prospects per season that run under 6.4 seconds). Lets assume the StDev = 0.2 seconds in the 60 yard dash. Anyone under 6.4 seconds would effectively just be given an 80 and that's that... but technically, a 6.2 or 6.0 time would be 90 and 100 respectively (Bo Jackson ran a 6.18). But there are so few of these cases that it isn't really worth differentiating between them so we just give them 80. Again, lots of assumptions here, but bear with me... so where would Usain bolt rate on this curve if he just decided to try out for baseball?

20 - 7.6 (Anyone slower than this is moo)
30 - 7.4
40 - 7.2
50 - 7.0
60 - 6.8
70 - 6.6
80 - 6.4
90 - 6.2 (Bo Jackson)
100 - 6.0
110 - 5.8 (Which is about where Ussain bolt's 60m split in the world record 100m comes in after adjusted to yards)

Ussain bolt would be 6 standard deviations away from the average MLB player and a full 3 standard deviations away from elite (80 rated) speed players, and thus would be rated 110 if you cared to extend the scale by enough standard deviations to cover his extreme case.
 
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OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Lets not conflate power rating with HR stats (if power = how far a player can hard player can hit a ball then the home run number might not reflect an 80 rating if the other ratings like contact aren't also great), but the idea is that the top end of the "20-80" scale would only be limited by the limits of human physiology, and thus could certainly exceed 3 standard deviations (80) from the average (50). Since these cases are so rare as to not be worth adding extra space on the scale, we simply call them "80" and figure that's descriptive enough.

So the best example I can give is speed since we have hard measurements for that. This isn't opinion. Lets assume the speed of an average (50 rated) baseball player in the 60 yard (55m) dash is like 7 seconds and exceptionally fast (80 rated) players run it in under 6.4 seconds (looking this up there are only handful of prospects per season that run under 6.4 seconds). Lets assume the StDev = 0.2 seconds in the 60 yard dash. Anyone under 6.4 seconds would effectively just be given an 80 and that's that... but technically, a 6.2 or 6.0 time would be 90 and 100 respectively (Bo Jackson ran a 6.18). But there are so few of these cases that it isn't really worth differentiating between them so we just give them 80. Again, lots of assumptions here, but bear with me... so where would Usain bolt rate on this curve if he just decided to try out for baseball?

20 - 7.6
30 - 7.4
40 - 7.2
50 - 7.0
60 - 6.8
70 - 6.6
80 - 6.4
90 - 6.2
100 - 6.0
110 - 5.8 (Which is about where Ussain bolt's 60m split in the world record 100m comes in after adjusted to yards)

Ussain bolt would be 6 standard deviations away from the average MLB player and a full 3 standard deviations away from elite (80 rated) speed players, and thus would be rated 110 if you cared to extend the scale by enough standard deviations to cover his extreme case.

Ok, I was just conflating it because when you change the power number to 185 it shows 48ish homeruns projected, and if you go to 250 it shows 60+ HRs projected. I can't remember the exact HR number

It wasn't a philosophical question, it was a "this is how it is when you get behind the curtain" thing. IIRC each 5 point rating increase is a 10-15 point span on the 0-250 scale, but only to 185ish which is where 80 starts. The front end 80 is a 70 point span on the backend 0-250 scale.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Ok, I was just conflating it because when you change the power number to 185 it shows 48ish homeruns projected, and if you go to 250 it shows 60+ HRs projected. I can't remember the exact HR number

It wasn't a philosophical question, it was a "this is how it is when you get behind the curtain" thing. IIRC each 5 point rating increase is a 10-15 point span on the 0-250 scale, but only to 185ish which is where 80 starts. The front end 80 is a 70 point span on the backend 0-250 scale.

I guess what I'm asking was if you ONLY changed the power rating to 80 to see that projection? What happens to the HR projection if you change all the hitting ratings to 185ish? (lowest 80)?
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
I think if you started another save with a different set up you could really figure out what the ratings meant, and I'm sure contact would affect HRs hit. I was just telling you that the scale on the backend is 0-250 and that 80 starts at 185ish. Idk if that changes anything about your method so I wanted to let you in on that.

If it's the same on the low end, then 65-70 on the 250 scale would be the 20 on the 80 scale but it isn't.
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
I guess what I'm asking was if you ONLY changed the power rating to 80 to see that projection? What happens to the HR projection if you change all the hitting ratings to 185ish? (lowest 80)?

It goes up, I'm sure if you put 1 on their BABIP (most important contact rating) and avoid Ks it would lower it considerably, I was just tom bout an average hitter. 40s or 45s

EDIT, nope I just jumped in my fictional save and they still hit 45 homeruns with a .113 average
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I think if you started another save with a different set up you could really figure out what the ratings meant, and I'm sure contact would affect HRs hit. I was just telling you that the scale on the backend is 0-250 and that 80 starts at 185ish. Idk if that changes anything about your method so I wanted to let you in on that.

If it's the same on the low end, then 65-70 on the 250 scale would be the 20 on the 80 scale but it isn't.

It doesn't change anything, it just confirms that OOTP allows for "freaks of nature" but just lumps them all in as "80 rated" like scouts do in real life because there are so few of them.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I've also seen
---
--
-
0
+
++
+++

I like this better than numerical values as it helps you resist the temptation to do maths on them.
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Yeah I just changed a rando from (BABIP/Ks/POWER) 1/1/185 and 185/185/185 and that ho hit 45 projected home runs either way. I would think in a full season those two would vary significantly but maybe not.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
Every FA is inefficient compared to team controlled but you gotta do something with that extra $120M
Also IMO built into the cost of the FA is the fact you're paying for a player without giving anything up. Even when you have a homegrown player you're giving something up (IFA- money/the chance to sign someone else, Draft- that pick) although it's not as significant as a trade.

I also think that for role players, it's so much easier to go to FA than it is to trade. You can get really cheap guys as your #5 SP, LH specialist, bench players that again cost you nothing and the salaries are low. I also think that teams can steal good vets too for cheap prices (check out False Bay, they've done this really well).

The big ticket items haven't really existed in this league so I think after a couple more off-seasons, we can start to judge them. No offense @osick87 but IMO with DLS, Vis, Fazackerly I liked all three guys but you were in a sense bidding against yourself. I don't think you had to pay those guys as much or as long if you waited it out a little. I do understand that you wanted them and they fit your needs perfectly, but the final figures they got were inflated IMO.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
Separate post and it's just a curiosity of mine... is there anywhere or any data on how many games it takes people to get tired by position?

C gets tired at by far the biggest rate. I'd say SS is next and closely behind it is 2B. Maybe throw in CF/3B next then it seems like guys can play DH, 1B, LF, RF all year without getting tired (off days built in help).
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
I like the first half of doh's post. I think you're wrong about Osick, though, I and maybe others were waiting on some of those guys if the price came down.
That was kinda my point though. I wanted Vis and was thinking about Fazackerly. Their true price point for those guys was much lower so he inflated the price they got.

Obviously there's will be "they're worth whatever they get paid" but I think his prices were such an outlier on what they're probably worth (IMO the AAVs are fine, years are too many) that you can't use them as examples of "overpaid" FAs. If there was a true bidding war, then yes I think they're be examples of that.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
To me it sounds like Doh is mad he got scooped to me. Of course you gonna pay more for the best FA guys, but as long as you've managed you roster as a whole with sound payroll principles (like Osick has for the last 5 years) you have the money to splurge on a "want."
 

Gooksta

Well-Known Member
To me it sounds like Doh is mad he got scooped to me. Of course you gonna pay more for the best FA guys, but as long as you've managed you roster as a whole with sound payroll principles (like Osick has for the last 5 years) you have the money to splurge on a "want."
Payroll flexibility is the biggest weapon..
 

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
Pretty sure I just offered them their asking price (maybe a mil more) so let's not act like I was trying to scare you guys away from them.

Payroll flexibility is the biggest weapon..

These next two years will be tight for me but after selling tickets and DLS and Faz contracts done, I should be back in a more flexible position. If I'm doing well, I'll probably extend Tsao.
 
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doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
This is such a WBL/Utopia argument. I'm not arguing against paying people a lot if you have room. I agree with that.

I'm more saying that Osick's contracts he's given out aren't really a reflection of the cost of top FAs. It's an inflated cost compared to the rest of the league. Just look at Fazackerly year to year. I was just arguing his contracts have been more than those guys would've normally gotten. I'm not saying this a good/bad strategy or whatever... I'm just saying if you want to judge FAs that the price/year values he's paying are not normal.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
Separate post and it's just a curiosity of mine... is there anywhere or any data on how many games it takes people to get tired by position?

C gets tired at by far the biggest rate. I'd say SS is next and closely behind it is 2B. Maybe throw in CF/3B next then it seems like guys can play DH, 1B, LF, RF all year without getting tired (off days built in help).
More importantly is there anything about this in the OOTP forums or anywhere about this?

I'm actually very interested in the effects of catching tons of games. It seems like catchers who catch tons of games decline at a much quicker rate than those who catch less. I don't know if this is also true of other positions like 2B, SS.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
Just went onto the OOTP forums and read a defense post. I immediately had to X out or I'd spend more than 5 minutes a day on it.

Now I know how @OU11 hacks the game.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
green and blue = good

red, yellow, and orange = bad


get green and blue and youll win. OOTP is easy.
Duh. But there aren't enough gr8 players for everyone to have a 4+ WAR player at every position.

Part of the fun to me is finding 1 StaRRrRZ guys who fit in a certain role. Or getting a platoon partner at certain positions or finding a super sub who can give guys rest.
 

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
I'm working on something. It is nowhere near as intense as his shit. It's my usual WAR compared to average thing. Might even make graphs.
 

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
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[/xtable]
@OU11. This should give you some idea on what Rebuilding teams you should talk to for SPs.
 

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
I'm doing Catchers next.


Pitcher WAR should also give him an idea of guys to inquire about.
 
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