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OOTP Statistical Analysis/Nerding Thread

W

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
Goes to show my first 3 starters have been about the best in the league but my 4 and 5 starters are killing me. Good stuff
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
I know it's largely based off of FIP so I guess if you favor pitch to contact pitchers, then you are likely to have a lower WAR.

I know WAR isn't the end all be all but it's a pretty solid summation so that's why I use it for that.
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
Wolfman21 said:
Goes to show my first 3 starters have been about the best in the league but my 4 and 5 starters are killing me. Good stuff
Click to expand...

Murta still may turn it around. It's early so who knows. His FIP and WHIP are pretty high though. He's got some pretty crazy RHB/LHB splits.
 
doh

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
osick87 said:
I wouldn't mind reading an explanation as to why. I could just do Starter FIP next time.
Click to expand...
Batter WAR is all about performance.

Pitcher WAR is all about IP X FIP which really isn't performance. I believe Pitchers have VORP which is tied to RA.

I also think FIP is flawed. Too much weight given to BB and not enough to HR.
 
Orlando

Orlando

Well-Known Member
Utopia Moderator
I don't really like WAR for pitchers this early in the season and also because it's a counting stat.
 
W

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
osick87 said:
Murta still may turn it around. It's early so who knows. His FIP and WHIP are pretty high though. He's got some pretty crazy RHB/LHB splits.
Click to expand...

Not just murta though. Fishburn started the first 4-5 games out of my 4 spot and he was a ton worse than murat has been. Murta is a strange dude. He showed up on my top prospects list as one of those guys that disappears from your IC and then magically improves. He's done nothing but improve his ratings since then even though he has 40 stamina and no really good pitches. We'll see what happens
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
Wolfman21 said:
Not just murta though. Fishburn started the first 4-5 games out of my 4 spot and he was a ton worse than murat has been. Murta is a strange dude. He showed up on my top prospects list as one of those guys that disappears from your IC and then magically improves. He's done nothing but improve his ratings since then even though he has 40 stamina and no really good pitches. We'll see what happens
Click to expand...

Worst case scenario he's a LOOGY
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
doh said:
Batter WAR is all about performance.

Pitcher WAR is all about IP X FIP which really isn't performance. I believe Pitchers have VORP which is tied to RA.

I also think FIP is flawed. Too much weight given to BB and not enough to HR.
Click to expand...

Striking guys out and not giving up walks and HRs isn't performance? I assume the IP part is in there so you don't have guys who have 1 inning with 3 Ks in there having crazy values.

Would OOTP have different FIP modifiers than BR and Fangraphs?

I'm assuming the math was sound with this. Although maybe it needs to get looked at again.:
FIP=(13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP) - 2*SO)/IP + Constant[sub]lg[/sub]

FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP)

The individual weights for home runs, walks/HBP, and strikeouts are based on the relative values of those actions with respect to run prevention.
Click to expand...
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
The last section explains your guys' beefs well and If I wasn't doing this thing just off the site, I'd probably try to include both.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

How this Compares to FanGraphs Pitcher WAR

FanGraphs has a long and detailed rundown of their WAR calculation, so I won't fully rehash it here. Our WAR starts with runs allowed by the pitcher and compares it to the league average pitcher (adjusting for quality of opposition), parks pitched in, and quality of defense behind the pitcher.
FanGraphs WAR begins with FIP, which is a fielding independent pitching stat comparable in scale to ERA that is computed using only pitcher dependent stats.
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + lg_specific_constant(around 3.20 or so)
In FIP, hits allowed and non-strikeout outs recorded have no role in the calculation other than in the number of total innings pitched. The assumption is that once the ball is put into play (other than a homerun) the entire outcome is determined by random chance and team defensive quality. This is definitely true to a greater degree than fans likely believe, but we disagree as to whether this is the best measure of the value of a pitcher's historical performance.
I've crafted some admittedly extreme cases below to illustrate situations where the approaches differ. For most situations, FIP and Runs Allowed Average (RA, essentially what we use) will be very close and are strongly correlated, but there are a number of cases each year where there are large disparities between the two metrics.
Situation #1, Pitcher A throws a perfect game with 20 strikeouts, Pitcher B throws a perfect game with no strikeouts.
FIP: Pitcher A -1.40 FIP, Pitcher B, 3.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 0.00 RA, Pitcher B 0.00 RA.
Situation #2, Pitcher A throws one inning w/ sequence, HR, ground out, fly out, BB, BB, BB, fly out, Pitcher B throws one inning w/ sequence BB, BB, BB, HR, SO, SO, SO
FIP: Pitcher A 25.20 FIP, Pitcher B 19.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 9.00 RA, Pitcher B 36.00 RA.
As I said, in the average case the two methods will arrive at similar results, but on the edge cases the differences can be quite dramatic.
Click to expand...
 
doh

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
osick87 said:
Striking guys out and not giving up walks and HRs isn't performance? I assume the IP part is in there so you don't have guys who have 1 inning with 3 Ks in there having crazy values.

Would OOTP have different FIP modifiers than BR and Fangraphs?

I'm assuming the math was sound with this. Although maybe it needs to get looked at again.:
Click to expand...
No it's not about actual performance. FIP is about predicted performance. Actual performance is something like ERA. At the end of the day, the only stat that really matters is runs against. Of course, better K/BB/HR rates usually mean that, but runs against is the true way to measure a pitcher.

Another reason I do not love FIP is that certain guys are better pitching out of the stretch. Certain guys are getting higher GB rates (which leads to more GIDP). Certain guys are better about pitching to defense/park. Maybe those things don't exist in the WBL but I think they exist IRL.

I think it's good to compare to regular ERA/shows who is getting screwed by their defense. But I don't buy FIP as the end all. Personally, again I don't think BB are as important and HRs are undervalued from what I've seen in the formula. Just my opinion no real research here though.
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
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{td}Team{/td}
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{td}Total{/td}
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{td}Kabul{/td}
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{td}1.2{/td}
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{td}0.3{/td}
{td}1.5{/td}
{/tr}
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{td}Amsterdam{/td}
{td}Haamid{/td}
{td}1.4{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}1.4{/td}
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{td}Paz{/td}
{td}1.4{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}1.4{/td}
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{td}Helga{/td}
{td}Roddis{/td}
{td}1.3{/td}
{td} {/td}
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{td}1.3{/td}
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{td}Istanbul{/td}
{td}Sanders{/td}
{td}1.3{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}1.3{/td}
{/tr}
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{td}Moscow{/td}
{td}Wong{/td}
{td}0.8{/td}
{td}Anderton{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{td}1.2{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Buenos Aires{/td}
{td}Vis{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Dublin{/td}
{td}Harris{/td}
{td}1{/td}
{td}Nieto{/td}
{td}-0.1{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}ND{/td}
{td}Rodriguez{/td}
{td}0.8{/td}
{td}Grant{/td}
{td}0.1{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Seoul{/td}
{td}Corrigan{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{td}Usher{/td}
{td}0.5{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}SF{/td}
{td}Stares{/td}
{td}0.6{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.6{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Cairo{/td}
{td}Bell{/td}
{td}0.2{/td}
{td}Miranda{/td}
{td}0.3{/td}
{td}0.5{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Berlin{/td}
{td}Adipo{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{td}Chavez{/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Lisbon{/td}
{td}Frank{/td}
{td}0.2{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.2{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}LRM{/td}
{td}Moreno{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td}Kjellsson{/td}
{td}-0.1{/td}
{td}-0.3{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}False Bay{/td}
{td}Charles{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td}O'Quinn{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td}-0.4{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td} {/td}
{td}Avg{/td}
{td}0.7833333333{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}Avg{/td}
{td}0.8888888889{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
 
Last edited:
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
doh said:
No it's not about actual performance. FIP is about predicted performance. Actual performance is something like ERA. At the end of the day, the only stat that really matters is runs against. Of course, better K/BB/HR rates usually mean that, but runs against is the true way to measure a pitcher.

Another reason I do not love FIP is that certain guys are better pitching out of the stretch. Certain guys are getting higher GB rates (which leads to more GIDP). Certain guys are better about pitching to defense/park. Maybe those things don't exist in the WBL but I think they exist IRL.

I think it's good to compare to regular ERA/shows who is getting screwed by their defense. But I don't buy FIP as the end all. Personally, again I don't think BB are as important and HRs are undervalued from what I've seen in the formula. Just my opinion no real research here though.
Click to expand...

I brought up some of those points as to what I feel as valid issues with FIP. I think it's useful when looking at a player on the site when you're trying to get a trade done during work hours since the site for sure doesn't have wRA. "Oh this guy's FIP isn't bad but his ERA and BABIP are high, those should hopefully regress"

I wasn't trying to make it seem like FIP was the end all be all. If OOTP has the stats needed for the BR Pitcher WAR, then I will gladly do it that way as well. If it doesn't then I will try and figure something out. Like I said, this exercise's intention is mostly to use as a snapshot
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
For the Catchers, I sort of just used my judgement on if the backup played a decent number of games at Catcher. Decent is of course subjective so I just added the "Starter Average" If you want, I can sort by that.
 
W

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
Thu...disliked by his teams fans...leads the league in catcher WAR.

hgh-monster.jpg
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
Another critique with position WAR this early is that it hasn't allowed some starters/backups to regress. Usher on Seoul comes to mind.
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
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{td}Team{/td}
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{td}1.4{/td}
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{td}1.4{/td}
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{td}Helga{/td}
{td}Ramirez{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{/tr}
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{td}ND{/td}
{td}Ridha{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
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{td}0.9{/td}
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{td}0.6{/td}
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{td}Baez{/td}
{td}0.5{/td}
{td}Barnes{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{td}0.9{/td}
{/tr}
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{td}Istanbul{/td}
{td}Ruiz{/td}
{td}0.4{/td}
{td} {/td}
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{td}0.4{/td}
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{td}Buenos Aires{/td}
{td}DLS{/td}
{td}0.3{/td}
{td}Sang{/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td}0.3{/td}
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{td}False Bay{/td}
{td}Bernal{/td}
{td}0.3{/td}
{td}Robles{/td}
{td}0.2{/td}
{td}0.5{/td}
{/tr}
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{td}Dublin{/td}
{td}Brodbeck{/td}
{td}0.1{/td}
{td}Marchant{/td}
{td}-0.3{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Cairo{/td}
{td}Verhoeven{/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}LRM{/td}
{td}Ducklow{/td}
{td}0{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0{/td}
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{td}Berlin{/td}
{td}Jones{/td}
{td}-0.1{/td}
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{td}Ammar{/td}
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{td}Lisbon{/td}
{td}Langille{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Moscow{/td}
{td}Schuur{/td}
{td}-0.7{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}-0.7{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.5388888889{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}0.5833333333{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

Sorted this one by Starter WAR. Some interesting trade potential here if things continue.
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
[xtable=border:1|cellpadding:0|cellspacing:0]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Dublin{/td}
{td}Brodbeck{/td}
{td}0.1{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]

:(
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
Yeah I put him in there since I assumed he would be your starter after he gets back.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Alonzo's is forgot about zo with a bad edited cut with zo instead of dre, this year. I thought he was done but it's gettin close to that contract year.
 
Travis7401

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I decided to start my rating vs stat analysis based on one of the more straight forward ratings, at least as described by the OOTP developers.

OOTP Developers Description of Contact Rating:
Contact

Contact is a measure of how good a player is at getting his bat on the ball. Contact directly affects a player's batting average. Players with high Contact ratings are more likely to put the ball in play and get more hits, with a higher batting average. Contact, however, has no direct effect on what the result of a hit will be.
Click to expand...


Here is what I found when I compared Batting Average (2048 Season at least 40 games played) vs Contact ratings (2049 OSA)

Red line is the "average" batting average for each contact rating. Yellow lines are an envelop bracketing +- 1 standard Deviation (Approx 70% of our observed batting averages should lie within this envelope).

18879223295_156fae79c2_b.jpg


Here is a table of the actual numbers that correspond with the Red/Yellow Lines in the Graph above:

18693139569_9c6c78d91e_o.jpg


I see good correlation with a nice fit of the data within the standard deviation curves and then some outliers that are either a result of sample size or the fact that the OSA didn't rate them accurately. Overall I think this rating is very well done by the OOTP Devs. Players with higher contact ratings have higher batting averages, so the ratings are definitely valuable in describing the performance of your player, but there is enough statistical variation that we aren't playing with robots.

It is worth noting that there is FAR more correlation between a player's Contact rating and their WAR than there is between the player's STARZZZZZ rating and their WAR. If you are looking at the single best stat to predict a player's WAR rating, Contact is that stat. This doesn't mean it is the most important rating, just that it is best for prediction.
 
Last edited:
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Found that the mid 40s and 50s are dependent on K rating. Or i guess i should say lack thereof
 
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