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OOTP Statistical Analysis/Nerding Thread

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Can you correlate intanginbls to most unexpected player growth? Is there an intangible that would possibly increase the percentage of player developing past their intial ceilings? example Mario Baez on kw

I don't have a good database for testing this, I just have what OOTP devs say are important for Dev (Leadership, Intelligence, Work Ethic). I'm going to create a shortlist for 1st and 2nd round draft picks moving forward so that I can have a database to work with, but it might take several seasons.
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
I don't have a good database for testing this, I just have what OOTP devs say are important for Dev (Leadership, Intelligence, Work Ethic). I'm going to create a shortlist for 1st and 2nd round draft picks moving forward so that I can have a database to work with, but it might take several seasons.
How hard is that to build/keep track of?
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I don't know yet, I'll probably try to start tracking this year's draft when I get home from vacation. Wanted to see who signed first so I'm not tracking a bunch of pool guys too. I tried to look into creating a database based on previous drafts, but it would have basically required me to click into every single player's scouting reports tab and copy/pasting data and then I'd only have Con/pow/eye potential for field players.
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
I don't know yet, I'll probably try to start tracking this year's draft when I get home from vacation. Wanted to see who signed first so I'm not tracking a bunch of pool guys too.
i have the draft pool csv file, i actually have all of the csv files from every draft. Would that tickle ur fancy?
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
That'd actually be perfect. When I get back I'll hit you up for them. Need to start packing now, lol.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Here is a graph showing the results of the Multi-Variable Linear Regression predicted WAR vs the observed WAR in 2049. You can see this fit is quite a lot better than the fit provided by "Overall." The non-linear regression analysis I did is even a little tighter fitting than this, but it is more confusing and not as straight forward to explain.

19366869251_7757d29923_b.jpg


As you can see, the Standard deviation is only 1.5 and the data is well described by a normal distribution, with about 2/3rds of that data fitting inside those red standard deviation bands.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I then re-fuckulated this data into a 20-80 scale, and placed all the players into bins based on a normal distriubtion, in order to land on juniper and arrive at a "BTT RATING," the one rating to rule them all!

19175252908_1b24c3c07c_b.jpg


19366869391_cf9142b51f_b.jpg


As you can see, the distribution is approximately normal with a slight skew toward the higher ratings, as one might expect since this is the top level of baseball and a rating system that can apply to all players from the minors on up. This skew is further explained by the fact that my data set only included players who played in at least 40 games last season at the major league level. Better players play and the borderline guys stay on the bench. The entire data set contains more players in the 30-50 range. Most of the 20 BTT rated players are guys down in A who will never see the any playing time.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
So, what does this all mean to you?

I've created a BTT calculator to share with the league. All of the important cells are locked, so don't worry about fucking anything up. Just paste in a name + all the pertinent ratings and you will receive that player's predicted WAR and BTT rating. The WAR/BTT cells are activated by data in the "Contact" cells, so you can past as many entries as you want. As long as each of the input cells is filled, it will give you an answer.

For display purposes I included the top 5 BTT rating players.

 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
That I'm really good at picking players.

Carrier from Seoul
Haamid from Cairo
Mosterd from Istanbul

Thanks fellas.


What it means to me is that contact and power are da bess. But if one is lower it can be made up slightly by an elite K or BB rating
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Yeah, ratings definitely need to be 20-80 scale because it subtracts the league average from them to normalize and then does the maths.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
And just so you guys don't think the BTT 20-80 scale is broke-dick, the average player in my data set is a 55 OVR in the BTT ratings, because of the slight skew due to what I talked about earlier because I was only using players >40 games.

An all 80 player would project at >5 standard deviations away from the WBL average WAR (9 War versus 1.5 avg and 1.5 St DEV), so 55+(5 x 10) = 105. Even though that rating is >80 the scale is still working correctly, as related to WAR. I could have it capped at 80, but I figured I'd let you guys see if the WBL ever producing some freak of nature that's 80+
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
And just so you guys don't think the BTT 20-80 scale is broke-dick, the average player in my data set is a 55 OVR in the BTT ratings, because of the slight skew due to what I talked about earlier because I was only using players >40 games.

An all 80 player would project at >5 standard deviations away from the WBL average WAR, so 55+(5 x 10) = 105. Even though that rating is >80 the scale is still working correctly.

Well not necessarily. There are some pretty sizable jumps from the low 80 to the high 80. A true all 80 would probably be more than 105
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Or is 105 the cap? IIRC the 180 guys hit like .330ish and the 250 guys hit damn near .400
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Well not necessarily. There are some pretty sizable jumps from the low 80 to the high 80. A true all 80 would probably be more than 105

I think it would me more like there would be an even wider range of potential outcomes. He could still end up -WAR somehow like Jay Brittain did from his 70 BTT rating :laughing:

As the BTT ratings get higher, you can see the spread of potential outcomes seems to increase. I'd say an all 80 OVR player would project at 9 WAR average and you could expect him to land anywhere between about 5 WAR and 20 WAR
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Or is 105 the cap? IIRC the 180 guys hit like .330ish and the 250 guys hit damn near .400


All 80 would be the cap because OOTP's ratings are capped at 80 and that's what I'm using for the calculation. I don't have access to the behind the scenes "real" data that is then fit to that 20-80 scale.
 

Karl Hungus

Here to fix the cable
That I'm really good at picking players.

Carrier from Seoul
Haamid from Cairo
Mosterd from Istanbul

Thanks fellas.


What it means to me is that contact and power are da bess. But if one is lower it can be made up slightly by an elite K or BB rating

Thanks for Ova and Hacksaw. It's a push.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Why is @dirt imagining us so much all of a sudden, dude is our biggest fan aside from Kella and Pavel.

There was a miscommunication, as I believe dirt believed that we were playing a dynasty in The Show and he wanted to join. I sent him the link to OOTP to see if he was interested, cause I'm sure one of you will quit eventually.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Also, I wanted to add a note. If you add previous seasons WARs and weight them, you get a tighter fit to the curve. So if you want to estimate 2050 WAR, I'd recommend doing 40% BTT Estimate, 40% 2049 and 20% 2048. Really nice fit when I backtraced that and predicted the 2049 WAR. Brought the R2 up to almost .6
 

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
There was a miscommunication, as I believe dirt believed that we were playing a dynasty in The Show and he wanted to join. I sent him the link to OOTP to see if he was interested, cause I'm sure one of you will quit eventually.

Get in line, I have two real humans on the wait list.
 

doh

THANK YOU Dermott McHeshi
I think you can see that certain teams got hot while others were cold all season. Orlando's entire lineup for instance, was down -16 WAR between observed and predicted.
Doh's entire lineup was +10 WAR between observed and predicted. There are various ways to explain that. Either doh is good at making sure his players are in the right spots for them to succeed and Orlando is doing a horrible job, or Doh's team got hot and Orlando's got cold, or a little bit of both. Given the fact that Doh and Orlando are both experienced owners with very good management track records in the league, I'd guess Doh's management played a part and luck added some more and then Orlando just got screwed.

When you look at my two major under performers (Caden Trail and Brandon Marsh) they literally spent almost the entire season in "cold streaks." I'd bench them in favor of hot players for a while, but even when I'd try to ease them back in they'd go cold again and again.
I try very hard to platoon guys an not have them in bad positions. I don't play guys out of position (this is absolutely killing certain guy WARs). I don't hit guys like Over vs. LHP. It's probably part of why I was +10 WAR. I've posted this before but Brito is the perfect example. Plays in the field and posts a -3.6 WAR which was by far the worst in '48. This year I think he was 0.1 or 0.2 but was a HR every 17-18 ABs which is damn good.

I'm also not sure when you get the ratings but Gomez' ratings were better than in your chart (that guy is a 5+ WAR player) and I got a couple other guys like Inonu, Juarez, Sauce who were approaching their peak. The only guy I thought had a fluke year was Farid. He'll never do that again. Although again your ratings system had him as a 1 or WAR player and he's always been above that because of his defense. I don't think Larking will as well.

I also maximize LH batters which I think gives a boost for a few reasons primarily my ballpark.

Rest helps a bit. And I pay attention to certain personality traits/keeping guys happy a lot more than I used to. Maybe that's a minor boost? I'm not really sure.

I've always probably cared about my roster 1-25 (i.e. I want my fourth guy on my bench to have a specific role and start 50+ games) more than any other owner and the last few years I've been trying to get every little edge in the game. The league and owners have gotten too good.
 

dirt

Trolltalitarian
yeah, ima read up for a bit. I might get into this like next June when I'm bored af
 
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