You guys don't understand betting at all. I did say one point is the most likely SINGLE scenario, and I stand by that. If we are looking to make an even money type over/under bet, you have to pick number where all possible outcomes over/under that number are balanced. An over/under of 1 point doesn't make any sense for even the worst teams because there is only one potential winning outcome (0). Any other possible outcome would result in a tie or a loss. Unfortunately, with so few possible outcomes there isn't a proper balance point and a shift of half a point throws a ton of value to one side or the other. You'd be retarded to bet an under if the line was 2.5 and you'd be retarded to bet the over if the line was 3.5. A line of 3 is at least a decent bet because a large possible outcome would just end in a push.
To illustrate the difference, I could say " I predict the most likely outcome for the score of the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburg Steelers game will be 14-7" This is not the same as saying the over/under total score line should be 21 (which would extremely low for a pro football game).
I originally chose a line of 3.5, essentially saying that I get a victory for any combination that gives us 0,1,2, or 3 points. NML would win if we got 4,5,6,7,8, or 9 points. This is the line I have with my friend from work because I'm taking advantage of his homer tinted US glasses. I then "backtracked" when NML was reluctant and gave him a better deal saying I get a victory for 0,1, or 2 points while he still gets a victory for 4,5,6,7,8 or 9 points, and if it lands right on 3 points we kill Yankee. How this is considered "backtracking" only makes sense to you mongoloids, I suppose.
Here are the lines from sky sports:
[xtable=skin1]
{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}
0 Points 6/1{/td}
{td}
1 Point 3/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}
2 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}
3 Points 13/5{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}
4 Points 100/30{/td}
{td}
5 Points 22/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}
6 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}
7 Points 25/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}
9 Points 85/1{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
The best way to find a "fair" line would be to find the point where the sum of all odds under = the sum of all odds over, but since there are so few potential outcomes there isn't a good break point and that's why there is no over/under offered. If they set the over/under at 3, every good gambler would bet the under. If they set the over/under line at 2.5, every good gambler would bet the over.
If NML wants me to bet on my single most likely outcome, he can pay me at 3:1 for 1 point exactly. Otherwise, the line is 3 and I'm definitely getting the advantage according to sky (and yankee has a 38% chance of dying)