Pitcher WAR is kinda dumb tho
I wouldn't mind reading an explanation as to why. I could just do Starter FIP next time.
Pitcher WAR is kinda dumb tho
I wouldn't mind reading about this as wellI wouldn't mind reading an explanation as to why. I could just do Starter FIP next time.
Goes to show my first 3 starters have been about the best in the league but my 4 and 5 starters are killing me. Good stuff
Batter WAR is all about performance.I wouldn't mind reading an explanation as to why. I could just do Starter FIP next time.
Why is that?Pitcher WAR is kinda dumb tho
Murta still may turn it around. It's early so who knows. His FIP and WHIP are pretty high though. He's got some pretty crazy RHB/LHB splits.
I don't really like WAR for pitchers this early in the season and also because it's a counting stat.
Not just murta though. Fishburn started the first 4-5 games out of my 4 spot and he was a ton worse than murat has been. Murta is a strange dude. He showed up on my top prospects list as one of those guys that disappears from your IC and then magically improves. He's done nothing but improve his ratings since then even though he has 40 stamina and no really good pitches. We'll see what happens
Batter WAR is all about performance.
Pitcher WAR is all about IP X FIP which really isn't performance. I believe Pitchers have VORP which is tied to RA.
I also think FIP is flawed. Too much weight given to BB and not enough to HR.
FIP=(13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP) - 2*SO)/IP + Constant[sub]lg[/sub]
FIP Constant = lgERA – (((13*lgHR)+(3*(lgBB+lgHBP))-(2*lgK))/lgIP)
The individual weights for home runs, walks/HBP, and strikeouts are based on the relative values of those actions with respect to run prevention.
Why is that?
Does OOTP WAR use FIP? Assuming so, I think it's silly to base WAR on FIP.
How this Compares to FanGraphs Pitcher WAR
FanGraphs has a long and detailed rundown of their WAR calculation, so I won't fully rehash it here. Our WAR starts with runs allowed by the pitcher and compares it to the league average pitcher (adjusting for quality of opposition), parks pitched in, and quality of defense behind the pitcher.
FanGraphs WAR begins with FIP, which is a fielding independent pitching stat comparable in scale to ERA that is computed using only pitcher dependent stats.
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + lg_specific_constant(around 3.20 or so)
In FIP, hits allowed and non-strikeout outs recorded have no role in the calculation other than in the number of total innings pitched. The assumption is that once the ball is put into play (other than a homerun) the entire outcome is determined by random chance and team defensive quality. This is definitely true to a greater degree than fans likely believe, but we disagree as to whether this is the best measure of the value of a pitcher's historical performance.
I've crafted some admittedly extreme cases below to illustrate situations where the approaches differ. For most situations, FIP and Runs Allowed Average (RA, essentially what we use) will be very close and are strongly correlated, but there are a number of cases each year where there are large disparities between the two metrics.
Situation #1, Pitcher A throws a perfect game with 20 strikeouts, Pitcher B throws a perfect game with no strikeouts.
FIP: Pitcher A -1.40 FIP, Pitcher B, 3.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 0.00 RA, Pitcher B 0.00 RA.
Situation #2, Pitcher A throws one inning w/ sequence, HR, ground out, fly out, BB, BB, BB, fly out, Pitcher B throws one inning w/ sequence BB, BB, BB, HR, SO, SO, SO
FIP: Pitcher A 25.20 FIP, Pitcher B 19.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 9.00 RA, Pitcher B 36.00 RA.
As I said, in the average case the two methods will arrive at similar results, but on the edge cases the differences can be quite dramatic.
No it's not about actual performance. FIP is about predicted performance. Actual performance is something like ERA. At the end of the day, the only stat that really matters is runs against. Of course, better K/BB/HR rates usually mean that, but runs against is the true way to measure a pitcher.Striking guys out and not giving up walks and HRs isn't performance? I assume the IP part is in there so you don't have guys who have 1 inning with 3 Ks in there having crazy values.
Would OOTP have different FIP modifiers than BR and Fangraphs?
I'm assuming the math was sound with this. Although maybe it needs to get looked at again.:
OOTP WAR is based all on FIP and zero on actual runs results. One of the reasons it's a bit silly IMO.Does OOTP WAR use FIP? Assuming so, I think it's silly to base WAR on FIP.
No it's not about actual performance. FIP is about predicted performance. Actual performance is something like ERA. At the end of the day, the only stat that really matters is runs against. Of course, better K/BB/HR rates usually mean that, but runs against is the true way to measure a pitcher.
Another reason I do not love FIP is that certain guys are better pitching out of the stretch. Certain guys are getting higher GB rates (which leads to more GIDP). Certain guys are better about pitching to defense/park. Maybe those things don't exist in the WBL but I think they exist IRL.
I think it's good to compare to regular ERA/shows who is getting screwed by their defense. But I don't buy FIP as the end all. Personally, again I don't think BB are as important and HRs are undervalued from what I've seen in the formula. Just my opinion no real research here though.
Another critique with position WAR this early is that it hasn't allowed some backups to regress. Usher on Seoul comes to mind.
The production I have gotten out of Ramirez has been pretty solid it seems.
I've always wanted to do a post of walk up music of my players... think I'll do it now.That is most definitely his walk up music.
If 1B continues like this. @Travis7401 may get a couple calls on Ridha. @Wendell Gee
I've always wanted to do a post of walk up music of my players... think I'll do it now.
Hates logos. Likes walk up music.I've always wanted to do a post of walk up music of my players... think I'll do it now.
That is most definitely his walk up music.
If 1B continues like this. @Travis7401 may get a couple calls on Ridha. @Wendell Gee
Walk up music will break the leagueHates logos. Likes walk up music.
Actually a great prospect too
Contact
Contact is a measure of how good a player is at getting his bat on the ball. Contact directly affects a player's batting average. Players with high Contact ratings are more likely to put the ball in play and get more hits, with a higher batting average. Contact, however, has no direct effect on what the result of a hit will be.
i was gonna ask to make the same chart but combine with avoid K.Found that the mid 40s and 50s are dependent on K rating. Or i guess i should say lack thereof