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USA National Soccer (M & W) Thread
- Thread starter Yankee151
- Start date
Yeah, you have no idea how this works. Travis is coming at nml for saying he thinks they'll get 3. Therfore it starts at three. I know this from making way too many drunk wagers, someone makes a claim and another challenges. Step your wager game up
ILL GIVE YOU 5;4 odds Ou will not move to Cali in 1 year.
What odds will you give me on a parlay:
OU does not live in California on or before December 31, 2016......AND........the U.S. gets 3 points in the group stage?
No the people claiming dumb things make dumb wagers when i call them out and i get big bottles of patron or whiskey in return
Which is why Tavaris backtracked.
DOumb people.
NML
Well-Known Member
Actually the opposite happened lol
travis said the most likely result is 1. But because I mocked the other teams he told me to "put my money where my mouth is." I called him on his strut attempt, and he backtracked saying the most likely result is 1-3.
Always defend Travis in these threads doe
Look, this only ends with one possible scenario.
US beats Ghana, because white guys don't lose to black guys 3 times in a row. Same reason Obama won't win a third term. And that's really the reason. The Constitutional limit on terms has nothing to do with it. We then draw Portugal after Timmy Chandler bites Ronaldo and puts him out of the game. All of Portugal's subs refuse to take his place, for fear of this:
Look at that fucking tooth on the left side. Perfect for fileting Portuguese flesh. With a man advantage, the US squeaks out a 0-0 draw. Then the Germans, group shampship already in hand, throw their old buddy Jurgen a bone, and pass the ball along their back line like a FIFA troll for 90 minutes. 0-0 again. 5 points. Advancement secured.
US beats Ghana, because white guys don't lose to black guys 3 times in a row. Same reason Obama won't win a third term. And that's really the reason. The Constitutional limit on terms has nothing to do with it. We then draw Portugal after Timmy Chandler bites Ronaldo and puts him out of the game. All of Portugal's subs refuse to take his place, for fear of this:
Look at that fucking tooth on the left side. Perfect for fileting Portuguese flesh. With a man advantage, the US squeaks out a 0-0 draw. Then the Germans, group shampship already in hand, throw their old buddy Jurgen a bone, and pass the ball along their back line like a FIFA troll for 90 minutes. 0-0 again. 5 points. Advancement secured.
The issue comes down to line value. NML and Orlando think Travis comments mean the line should be even money at -1. However Travis is using -3 or -3.5 by his calculations gives him huge value. Jingoism allows him to produce theses lines (the people at work comment) which means Travis is taking advantage of retards for his own gain. Pretty hypocrisy
Orangebird
Premier League Champs
NML
Well-Known Member
All Travis did was turn this into a dick measuring contest for no reason.
PUT UR MONEYZ WHERE UR MOUTH IS
You guys don't understand betting at all. I did say one point is the most likely SINGLE scenario, and I stand by that. If we are looking to make an even money type over/under bet, you have to pick number where all possible outcomes over/under that number are balanced. An over/under of 1 point doesn't make any sense for even the worst teams because there is only one potential winning outcome (0). Any other possible outcome would result in a tie or a loss. Unfortunately, with so few possible outcomes there isn't a proper balance point and a shift of half a point throws a ton of value to one side or the other. You'd be retarded to bet an under if the line was 2.5 and you'd be retarded to bet the over if the line was 3.5. A line of 3 is at least a decent bet because a large possible outcome would just end in a push.
To illustrate the difference, I could say " I predict the most likely outcome for the score of the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburg Steelers game will be 14-7" This is not the same as saying the over/under total score line should be 21 (which would extremely low for a pro football game).
I originally chose a line of 3.5, essentially saying that I get a victory for any combination that gives us 0,1,2, or 3 points. NML would win if we got 4,5,6,7,8, or 9 points. This is the line I have with my friend from work because I'm taking advantage of his homer tinted US glasses. I then "backtracked" when NML was reluctant and gave him a better deal saying I get a victory for 0,1, or 2 points while he still gets a victory for 4,5,6,7,8 or 9 points, and if it lands right on 3 points we kill Yankee. How this is considered "backtracking" only makes sense to you mongoloids, I suppose.
Here are the lines from sky sports:
[xtable=skin1]
{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}0 Points 6/1{/td}
{td}1 Point 3/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}3 Points 13/5{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}4 Points 100/30{/td}
{td}5 Points 22/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}6 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}7 Points 25/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}9 Points 85/1{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
The best way to find a "fair" line would be to find the point where the sum of all odds under = the sum of all odds over, but since there are so few potential outcomes there isn't a good break point and that's why there is no over/under offered. If they set the over/under at 3, every good gambler would bet the under. If they set the over/under line at 2.5, every good gambler would bet the over.
If NML wants me to bet on my single most likely outcome, he can pay me at 3:1 for 1 point exactly. Otherwise, the line is 3 and I'm definitely getting the advantage according to sky (and yankee has a 38% chance of dying)
To illustrate the difference, I could say " I predict the most likely outcome for the score of the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburg Steelers game will be 14-7" This is not the same as saying the over/under total score line should be 21 (which would extremely low for a pro football game).
I originally chose a line of 3.5, essentially saying that I get a victory for any combination that gives us 0,1,2, or 3 points. NML would win if we got 4,5,6,7,8, or 9 points. This is the line I have with my friend from work because I'm taking advantage of his homer tinted US glasses. I then "backtracked" when NML was reluctant and gave him a better deal saying I get a victory for 0,1, or 2 points while he still gets a victory for 4,5,6,7,8 or 9 points, and if it lands right on 3 points we kill Yankee. How this is considered "backtracking" only makes sense to you mongoloids, I suppose.
Here are the lines from sky sports:
[xtable=skin1]
{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}{colgroup}
{col}{/col}
{/colgroup}
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}0 Points 6/1{/td}
{td}1 Point 3/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}3 Points 13/5{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}4 Points 100/30{/td}
{td}5 Points 22/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}6 Points 8/1{/td}
{td}7 Points 25/1{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}9 Points 85/1{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
The best way to find a "fair" line would be to find the point where the sum of all odds under = the sum of all odds over, but since there are so few potential outcomes there isn't a good break point and that's why there is no over/under offered. If they set the over/under at 3, every good gambler would bet the under. If they set the over/under line at 2.5, every good gambler would bet the over.
If NML wants me to bet on my single most likely outcome, he can pay me at 3:1 for 1 point exactly. Otherwise, the line is 3 and I'm definitely getting the advantage according to sky (and yankee has a 38% chance of dying)
You threw up the troll signal when you said travis was backtracking by making it easier for nml to win haha.Travis ends up winning this because I wasted time arguing with someone else about it
OU, please get the betting stuff going so I can take money from these retards. This will be like the time I played the "Shut the box" game at the bar and took money from people who don't understand probability until all my friends drinks were paid for. People looked at me like I was some sort of wizard for understanding which combinations on a pair of dice are most likely to occur.
AHHHH YOU EDITED POST BOY It should be noted that I realize I'm now giving YOU the house edge (add up the rest of the probabilities) but I'm so confident the US is overvaluesd I'll go with it. Dionne at me bro.
I was so tempted to edit the odds in my post to which NML responded with "Deal" without quoting
I'm calling this scenario now: We draw against Ghana, lose against Portugal and NML gets a backdoor cover when we draw against German reserve team since they've already locked up 1st.
Milo
Well-Known Member
The 30-35 minute edits are when I figure out there's a breach and I want to cover myself with argument softeners like most, generally, I think, etc.
The 1-2 hour edits are because I've so hastily tried to cover myself that my sentences are fucked.
The half a day later edits are when I've realized I've opened pandora's box and I want to defend myself from future quoting.
The 1-2 hour edits are because I've so hastily tried to cover myself that my sentences are fucked.
The half a day later edits are when I've realized I've opened pandora's box and I want to defend myself from future quoting.
Nah b. That's not what I meant. I was pointing out Travis being a vagina with the original odds he gave NML based on his own statements moments earlier. He tried to cover it up with "put your monies where your mouth is" tough guy routine. Wasn't referring to when he changed the odds.
Clintmartian
Stringer Bell
God. I'm entirely sorry for the NBA thread now.
