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2072 Off Season Thread

NML

Well-Known Member
Inspired by the great deal by @Mr. Radpants for Wadford, I looked for an all-value team in this free agent class. These values are based on their initial demand, so they may have actually signed for higher or lower.

C: Dani Mendoza - Predicted WAR: 2.3, Demand: $1.4m, $/WAR: $611k
- Mendoza is a great option as a back-up, but serviceable as a starter. He's just two years removed from a 3.2 WAR season, and he had an average bat (100 wRC+) last year, but is at a premium position with a + glove. Special mention of Efren Losorata, who is predicted for 2.7 WAR (over 140 games, which he will likely play less), but had a slightly higher demand. Nice snag by @fignuts

1B: Nelson Eastick - Predicted WAR: 2.4, Demand: $9.5m, $/WAR: $3.9m
- It's no surprise that we've seen a few GMs asking for first baseman, since it was Eastick and nobody else in free agency. Eastick himself isn't great value, but the $7.5m that he signed for is more reasonable. Plus, he'll give a bump to fan interest. A couple guys who are not 1B but can play there were/are also available - most notably, Van Halen, PJ Byrne, and Wade Pimblett.

2B: Juan Flores - Predicted WAR: 2.8, Demand: $2.4m, $/WAR: $855k
- Van Halen is actually tops here, but I know his cost has gone way up so I won't include him. Flores has two straight years of a + bat and can play a variety of positions. A great utility infielder, but plenty capable of starting, as well.

SS: Wade Pimblett - Predicted WAR: 3.1, Demand: $1.3m, $/WAR: $407k
- Pimblett is actually going to play third for me, but he's great value across the board. SS actually has five free agents with predicted WARs above 2, including Pimblett, who are all available for under $1.3m; the others are Joly, Requero, Evangelista, and Poore.

3B: Felix Lopez - Predicted WAR: 1.3, Demand: $1.2m, $/WAR: $945k
- Third base does not have a single player with a predicted WAR above 1.4; and Brian Brown's initial demand was $8m. Cross is the only other player predicted a single win above replacement. WOOF

LF: Miguel Gonzalez - Predicted WAR: 2.5, Demand: $3.1m, $/WAR: $1.2m
- Pooky can't play the field, but still has a well above average bat. His demand is higher than other players on this list, but not much else available in left field. Joosten is the only other player predicted above replacement level.

CF: Liam Odgers - Predicted WAR: 1.5, Demand: $1.5m, $/WAR: $980k
- There's two big money players here, and Odgers. He's not quite starter quality, but he's a great utility outfielder with his well-rounded defense and speed.

RF: Ross Wookey - Predicted WAR: 2.4, Demand: $3m, $/WAR: 1.2m
- Wookey is an almost neutral fielder, but has a + bat and is extremely cheap. Cesar Hernandez is actually a cheaper option (1.7/$1.6m), but I tried to go above 2 WAR whenever possible.

DH: Thomas Zinck - Predicted WAR: 1.5, Demand: $2.6m, $/WAR: 1.6m
- Of the three decent DHs, Zinck is basically neck and neck with Muli (1.3/$2.2m) in value. Hubert is a more expensive, but more productive option (2.9/$8.5m).

I only used listed positions for sake of time. Still, there's about 18 WAR here for $25m, most of that Eastick. If you take him off, it's 15.5 WAR for $15.5m. I'll do the pitchers another day, but I know there's some value in the pitching staff that's already signed (Loeve, Wadford), so I imagine you could put together a 70 win team from just free agents.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Lol these non BTT Predicted WARs. Wade Pimblett at 3.1 WARS? WAT? It is 2072, not 2065 right? The official BTT calculator gives him 1.4 BTT wars as a 2B

Similarly Ross Wookey @ 2.4 predicted WARS? He didn't hit that mark in his very best season! If you assume he plays "average" defense he might make it to 1.1-1.3 BTT wars. More likely his defense is BAD and and he's 0.6-0.8 BTT wars
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Pimblett literally had 1.6 WAR in 81 games last year. What do you think that predicts to over a full year

Not so sure on Wooky, they are based on my scouts stats so maybe that’s it? He had a decent bat last year
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
And Wade Pimblett also won 2.3 WARS in his previous 307 games. Since his big drop off in 2067, Pimblett has won 3.9 WARS in 388 games. Assuming a 140 game season (BTT WAR STANDARD) that's 1.4 WARS won per season on average. That matches exactly what the BTT WAR tool predicts for him.

Here are my BTT WARS PREDICTED (140 games/season) for all the above players. My BTT WAR is spot on with Wade's average performance. I'm not saying it is impossible for him to hit 3.1 WARS, he could certainly do that with a great season... but 1.4 WARs is much more reasonable based on both his current ratings and previous performance.



*if I change Mendoza to GREAT defense, which you could argue it puts him at 1.9 WARS in 140. I think that's probably a better prediction. I've also noticed that C seems to get more "position WAR" in the last couple versions of the game. Could bump the position WAR for catcher up to 0.8-1.0 (SS or CF) and he's probably predicted over 2 WARs
 
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NML

Well-Known Member
Yeah I think you might want to reevaluate ur position values and replacement level. IIRC you have it at 15? Last year it was 17.6.

I took everyone player’s wRC+, WAR, Running runs, and ZR from last year and broke each piece down to get accurate numbers for WAR. I also broke down league averages for all those, too. My squared residual was like .001.

I also might need to re-evaluate my defensive runs saved
 

Mr. Radpants

Friendship Drive Charging DUBS
Lol these non BTT Predicted WARs. Wade Pimblett at 3.1 WARS? WAT? It is 2072, not 2065 right? The official BTT calculator gives him 1.4 BTT wars as a 2B

Similarly Ross Wookey @ 2.4 predicted WARS? He didn't hit that mark in his very best season! If you assume he plays "average" defense he might make it to 1.1-1.3 BTT wars. More likely his defense is BAD and and he's 0.6-0.8 BTT wars
Lol at the guy throwing 25 per at closers weighing in on the value discussion
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Lets compare at the end of the season with these predictions and see who needs to re-evaluate what, lol.

I think part of the problem is that you seem to be basing ur calcs on 162 games or something? My BTT calc is based on a 140 game year. If you feel ur player will play more/less games than that you can input that value in the "Games" column and it will scale the prediction up or down. Some injury free DH types can certainly be assumed to play 162 games and you can adjust as you feel is realistic, but generally I think 140 is a good estimate for the average starter.

That likely explains the difference between our replacement level calc. Replacement value of 15 runs is based on 140 games and matches well with 17.6 in 162. I also rounded because I'm not a fan of faux precision.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
I do it based on ABs, and I use 600. I’m also built around runs, not WAR itself.

I’m also based on either 36 or 38 wins being replacement level. If ur using the fangraphs one, I think it’s 46?

Runs per win last year was also 9.56, so that would make all those higher too.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I'd love to see how ur TOOL gets a creature like Felix Lopez over 1 WAR. Mine is pretty transparent and easily changed if you think the values should be different.

I don't think Lopez would make my AAA team.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Actually I went looking for that and couldn’t find anything.

Replacement level is definitely 17.6 - that is based 100% off our league, which is ultimately what the W-L is based on
 

NML

Well-Known Member
@Travis7401 heres my process for batters:

Input: contact, gap, power, eye, avoid ks, wRC+ for the previous season, three speed ones, and defense

Linear: defense and base running

Other six inputs predict wRC+. Translate that to RAA/PA, multiple that by 600. That gives you batting runs above average.

Add that to defensive runs saved, base running runs, position adjustment, and replacement level runs.

That gives you runs above replacement player. Divide that by runs per win (which is based on BR’s formula)
 

NML

Well-Known Member
It takes wRC, which is what FG uses as its basis, but it’s built with BR’s model.

No one likes gambling more than me, but I’m not sure how you could accurately do it with so many variables.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
There aren't that many variables. We'll compare at the end of the season and see who is more accurate for these 9 players. We can scale to 600ABs for ur prediction and 140 games for mine, we can argue about throwing out players with SSS.

I think you are high on all of them, SIGNIFICANTLY high on several.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I would not piss on Felix Lopez if he was on fire! If he wins 1.3 WARS I'll eat my own shit, etc. My backup 3B's backup named CRABMAN is better! I'd rather play my backup Catcher at 3B!
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Well I know Lopez has a 50 contact rating by my scout because he was on my team, so that would be a big part of it.

I’m open to a money mouth but I’d like a big group of players
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Oh we using scouts now? I mean I'll money mouth against any system that thinks PIMPLE gonna win 3.1 WARS as a SS in the year of our squirrel lord 2072.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Yeah that’s from a report I ran when I was looking for potential free agents, so I used my scouts rating. I’ll run these guys again with OSA, but if we money mouth I’ll use my scout
 

NML

Well-Known Member
I would not piss on Felix Lopez if he was on fire! If he wins 1.3 WARS I'll eat my own shit, etc. My backup 3B's backup named CRABMAN is better! I'd rather play my backup Catcher at 3B!
Crabman won 1.5 WARs two seasons ago doe

Oh we using scouts now? I mean I'll money mouth against any system that thinks PIMPLE gonna win 3.1 WARS as a SS in the year of our squirrel lord 2072.
So just comparing our stuff, you've got him as a 2.5 WAR player based on replacement level, defensive, and position (this is for second base, but what he'd lose for defense at SS he'd gain in positional adjustment, or close). I have him at 2.6 - so that's more or less the same (I probably have a higher adjustment for position). You give him -1 for his bat, I give him +.5 or so.

His wRC+ last year was 117 - which would translate to a +1.3 WAR for the season. I predict him to be at 107 - which is also his exact average of the past two seasons. Ur predicting about a 85. He's had that or lower two of the past five seasons, three have been above it. Both of his past two seasons have been over that. His bat seems to really fluctuate doe.

It's worth noting that, according to OSA, his eye bumped up 5 points after the 2069 season, and in 2070/71 he had a better bat. Not sure about gap or avoid K doe.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Here is what I propose.

You and I both use our SPREADSHEET TOOLS to generate predicted WARS WON for the anticipated ND and UK rosters (based on expected game/AB distributions, we'll each use the same). We'll each use OSA's ratings and our scout's ratings just because I've always been interested in that aspect of it as well. At the end of the season we'll see how we did on the predictions. This is just for fun because we'll need to control for injuries and roster moves to get a better apples to apples comparison.

Then to account for injuries and roster moves, etc, we'll input the actual ABs/Games into the spreadsheets and come up with the "predicted" WAR based on the actual distributions of games we were able to achieve. The difference between these and the original predictions could be a cool way to quantify the value lost/gained by roster moves and injuries. I think this is where the BETS should be made and we'll use the SSE differences from predicted vs actual WAR based on the actual #ABs and Games played by the entire roster of both teams. Then whoever wins gets the other person's 2073 first round pick.

You have until opening day to reconfigure ur spreadsheet and we will post our prediction spreadsheets so that they can be seen by others.
 
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Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
http://utopia.allsimbaseball9.com/game/lgreports/players/player_6341.html

2.7

Bat is similar, glove slightly better but he played at a neutral level last year
his range was almost certainly better at the start of last year. 55 range won't put up neutral fielding at SS this coming season.

BTT CALCULATOR would have him at 2.0 predicted based on his ratings now. Pretty markedly better than the 1.4 I predict WADE to have. 2.0 vs 2.7 is a prediction I'm comfortable with, and I think 2.0 WARS is decent going forward.
 

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
Wait...so the same felix lopez who wins ~2.5 WARs in AAA is expected to win 2.7 WARS in the WBL where his best season is an 83 OPS+ and hes average to below average in defense?

lawd...too much logic for me
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Wait...so the same felix lopez who wins ~2.5 WARs in AAA is expected to win 2.7 WARS in the WBL where his best season is an 83 OPS+ and hes average to below average in defense?

lawd...too much logic for me

I think you might have a reading disability, actually. Even NML only has Felix Lopez at 1.3 WARS (about 1.5 WARS TOO HIGH!). I assume ur disability is probably from all those terrible posts you've been making about deviant sexual acts.
 

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
I think you might have a reading disability, actually. Even NML only has Felix Lopez at 1.3 WARS (about 1.5 WARS TOO HIGH!). I assume ur disability is probably from all those terrible posts you've been making about deviant sexual acts.
[characterbreak]you don't pay close enough attention to what I do on this message board. No one does though, so I don't blame you. I get so many laughs throughout a week just by posting absolutely random shit, most of which i don't even agree with in my personal life, and watching all youns get up in arms and huff and puff about it. It really is a fun short little break for a minute or two every so often from my day to day[/characterbreak]

How many of your players are gonna join the AntasBukakkeClub this year? The "ABC" is like a country club for those that take Bukakke shots from Kabul Bulls throughout the season/postseason. Obviously, most of your previous teams are card carrying members. You got lucky last season due to a plethora of injuries. But hey, maybe we meet again this postseason and Avalos can go from a Bukakke giver to a Bukakke taker
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Here is what I propose.

You and I both use our SPREADSHEET TOOLS to generate predicted WARS WON for the anticipated ND and UK rosters (based on expected game/AB distributions, we'll each use the same). We'll each use OSA's ratings and our scout's ratings just because I've always been interested in that aspect of it as well. At the end of the season we'll see how we did on the predictions. This is just for fun because we'll need to control for injuries and roster moves to get a better apples to apples comparison.

Then to account for injuries and roster moves, etc, we'll input the actual ABs/Games into the spreadsheets and come up with the "predicted" WAR based on the actual distributions of games we were able to achieve. The difference between these and the original predictions could be a cool way to quantify the value lost/gained by roster moves and injuries. I think this is where the BETS should be made and we'll use the SSE differences from predicted vs actual WAR based on the actual #ABs and Games played by the entire roster of both teams. Then whoever wins gets the other person's 2073 first round pick.

You have until opening day to reconfigure ur spreadsheet and we will post our prediction spreadsheets so that they can be seen by others.
I’m in but I’d rather do actual money or something less extreme for the game.

I’m gonna guess we are going to very similar predictions and it’s going to be almost pointless doe haha
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I’m in but I’d rather do actual money or something less extreme for the game.

I’m gonna guess we are going to very similar predictions and it’s going to be almost pointless doe haha
I have a feeling your predictions are going to be so far from mine (and reality) that we'll look back and laugh! I also care much more about digital first round picks than mere money, and would feel bad taking $ from ur babbies.