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2071 Season Thread

NML

Well-Known Member
#12
Been messing around with some prediction stuff lately. Today, I ran everyone's team through the numbers to spit out a predicted standings for the year - thought I'd say share it with you'll. Some notes first:

1) its based on ur active roster right now. So anyone hanging out in AAA, on assignment, or on the DL, wasn't included. If anyone on ur active roster is hurt, they were included as if they were not

2) for pitchers, all starters have the same weight (200 IP), as do relievers (varied from 55 to 82 depending on ur staff and rotation size). Filling out IP for each role would've made this take way too long.

3) most non-catcher starters got 150 games, sans DH who got 162. Did 110/52 for right/left platoons which is a number I made up. Things like "every fifth start" weren't considered and I would assign the remaining 12 games to obvious backups. For catchers, I looked at current splits and went from there, normally 120/42.

4) since these are median predictions, the standings are more of a cluster than they will be at the end of the year. Some teams will have lots of injuries, some will have several players over-perform, etc.

5) because of the variables - namely last year's production - elite rookies breaking into the majors are likely undervalued. Mediocre rookies are slightly overvalued. Declining veterans are slightly overvalued. Player's with a SSS last year will vary.

6) Elite players - like MVP elite - are undervalued.

7) Fielding production was based off player's position rating. Meaning, if ur starting third baseman is a shortstop in the game, his defensive value was based on him playing at SS with his SS rating.

8) these are schedule-neutral, so playing in varsity means ur real predicted record would be worse, and vice versa for JV


WORLD LEAGUE
Amsterdam: 95-67
False Bay: 88-74
Lisbon: 86-76
Dublin: 85-77
Helsingborg: 80-82
United Kingdom: 80-82
Seoul: 79-83
North Dakota: 75-87

TOPIA LEAGUE
Moscow: 95-67
Las Vegas: 89-73
Kabul: 86-76
Buffalo: 77-85
Cairo: 72-90
Little Rock: 72-90
Miami: 71-91
Istanbul: 65-97
 

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
#17
Been messing around with some prediction stuff lately. Today, I ran everyone's team through the numbers to spit out a predicted standings for the year - thought I'd say share it with you'll. Some notes first:

1) its based on ur active roster right now. So anyone hanging out in AAA, on assignment, or on the DL, wasn't included. If anyone on ur active roster is hurt, they were included as if they were not

2) for pitchers, all starters have the same weight (200 IP), as do relievers (varied from 55 to 82 depending on ur staff and rotation size). Filling out IP for each role would've made this take way too long.

3) most non-catcher starters got 150 games, sans DH who got 162. Did 110/52 for right/left platoons which is a number I made up. Things like "every fifth start" weren't considered and I would assign the remaining 12 games to obvious backups. For catchers, I looked at current splits and went from there, normally 120/42.

4) since these are median predictions, the standings are more of a cluster than they will be at the end of the year. Some teams will have lots of injuries, some will have several players over-perform, etc.

5) because of the variables - namely last year's production - elite rookies breaking into the majors are likely undervalued. Mediocre rookies are slightly overvalued. Declining veterans are slightly overvalued. Player's with a SSS last year will vary.

6) Elite players - like MVP elite - are undervalued.

7) Fielding production was based off player's position rating. Meaning, if ur starting third baseman is a shortstop in the game, his defensive value was based on him playing at SS with his SS rating.

8) these are schedule-neutral, so playing in varsity means ur real predicted record would be worse, and vice versa for JV


WORLD LEAGUE
Amsterdam: 95-67
False Bay: 88-74
Lisbon: 86-76
Dublin: 85-77
Helsingborg: 80-82
United Kingdom: 80-82
Seoul: 79-83
North Dakota: 75-87

TOPIA LEAGUE
Moscow: 95-67
Las Vegas: 89-73
Kabul: 86-76
Buffalo: 77-85
Cairo: 72-90
Little Rock: 72-90
Miami: 71-91
Istanbul: 65-97
you could have saved yourself alot of time and done an NML version of the dohwer rankings and it would have meant just as much
 

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
#22
Again? When was the first time you said it?

And the forum is dead because people have other interests than a simulation baseball game. This game isnt everyones life...which is good as i was told thats what this league needs
 

NML

Well-Known Member
#24
I probably need a second analysis for rookies or those with a small sample size from the previous year, based solely off of ratings
 

Wolfman21

Well-Known Member
#33
enjoying the ride right now...but theres gonna be some obvious rubber banding with this offense incoming. Urgeses is hitting like an MVP candidate and Laikam is playing well above what i would think is his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how long these guys can keep this up.
 

kingssc

Well-Known Member
#34
enjoying the ride right now...but theres gonna be some obvious rubber banding with this offense incoming. Urgeses is hitting like an MVP candidate and Laikam is playing well above what i would think is his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how long these guys can keep this up.
In the same boat, but with regards to my pitching. Was projected to have 63 wins, already about halfway there.
 

Orlando

Well-Known Member
Utopia Moderator
#37
enjoying the ride right now...but theres gonna be some obvious rubber banding with this offense incoming. Urgeses is hitting like an MVP candidate and Laikam is playing well above what i would think is his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how long these guys can keep this up.
Dat sweep