Maybe, I haven't really studied it like I have defensive ratings. It seems much more left up to chance. Juarez is just an enigma as he is 70/80/70 and gets caught all of the time. Maybe he's just dumb
-
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OOTP Statistical Analysis/Nerding Thread
- Thread starter Travis7401
- Start date
Maybe, I haven't really studied it like I have defensive ratings. It seems much more left up to chance. Juarez is just an enigma as he is 70/80/70 and gets caught all of the time. Maybe he's just dumb
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
I am really starting to think intelligence is a combination factor in base stealing success. knowing when it's a favorable base stealing situation.
I know speed has nothing to do with XBH though, you really can have a 20 rated speed guy challenge for most xbh in the league. I've done that before. I mean Carrier hits like 30+ doubles a year and he's only a 60 gap player. That's almost all influenced by gap and then there is a speed adjuster that is sometimes used and sometimes not for splitting between doubles and triples. If it's not used then speed doesn't factor into the split.
I misspoke, but not if the ratio is used. If the ratio is used then speed is cut completely out of XBH. I'm about to show you
I knew what you meant. Triples are dependent on speed unless the ratio is used.
Yeah if you get lucky and a guy has a higher ratio you're in business no matter his speed. Those are the rare finds I think though, I have no idea how many guys are based on speed and how many are based on the ratio. I guess you could just look at any slow guys getting more triples than they ever should.
Okay so I used Cabrera and Bogarts. Cabrera had 0 speed, 250 in baserunning/steals/defensive categories at SS and Bogarts the same but with speed at 250.
The Orioles screwed me over by not letting Cabrera run for some reason. I didn't manage them so I couldn't force them to let him run. He had a +23.8 ZR. He was set up with a triple ratio and had 54 doubles and 18 triples
Bogarts stole 93 bases
and had a +23.5 ZR. He had 43 doubles and 25 triples based on no ratio.Speed doesn't matter for defense, jury is still out on the steals but it probably has a good influence on it.
Well in that case then yeah, speed definitely matters in our league for triples
Well often times a reduction in speed does affect the range rating, what I'm saying is if it doesn't and your guy has good defensive stats the lack of speed won't kill him. I mean the extremes are just an easy way to show it but I could change those to whatever I want and as long as the 0 speed guy and the 250 speed guy have the same defensive ratings they'll play the position more or less the same. That's all I'm saying. For defense, the defensive ratings are all that matter. If your guy has low range because he's slow or whatever, then yeah his ZR will take a hit. But if he's slow and has decent range like Mosterd (55) then his speed doesn't matter a bit.
We'll see, he was amazing this year. His defensive ratings were growing those two years as I was getting him up to par in RF/LF (he came in at like 50 for each IIRC) so going forward will be the real test.
Either way I just showed a guy with 0 speed outplaying a guy with 250 speed defensively with the same ratings aside from speed. I could go from 0-250 in increments of one for the defensive ratings and I bet the two would be indistinguishable every time.
The player who most outperformed his ratings last season?
Tin Jong Tsao
The player who most underperformed compared to his ratings last season?
Jay Brittain
Tin Jong Tsao
The player who most underperformed compared to his ratings last season?
Jay Brittain
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Can you do like a top 10 and bottom 10?
I also ran a non-linear regression analysis that improved and tightened up the fit between predicted and observed WAR, but not by enough to be worth the hassle.
2049 Top 10 over performers in WAR compared to ratings, based on multi-variable linear regression analysis....
[xtable=skin1|@x400]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=164x@}Name{/td}
{td=63x@}Team{/td}
{td=76x@}Pos{/td}
{td=64x@}WAR{/td}
{td=64x@}CON{/td}
{td=64x@}GAP{/td}
{td=64x@}POW{/td}
{td=64x@}EYE{/td}
{td=64x@}K{/td}
{td=64x@}DEF{/td}
{td=67x@}Predicted{/td}
{td=76x@}Difference{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Tin-jong Tsao{/td}
{td}BA{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}7.9{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}3.31{/td}
{td}4.59{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Arthur Mwangata{/td}
{td}CAI{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}6.8{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.73{/td}
{td}4.07{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Larry Shaffer{/td}
{td}CAI{/td}
{td}DH{/td}
{td}3.7{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}-0.06{/td}
{td}3.76{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Ronald Riggs{/td}
{td}MOS{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}6.4{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.79{/td}
{td}3.61{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Frédéric Carrier{/td}
{td}AMD{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}8.4{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}80{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}4.91{/td}
{td}3.49{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Enrique Gómez{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}5.7{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.94{/td}
{td}2.76{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Numan Farid{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}3.7{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}1.07{/td}
{td}2.63{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Michel Oversluizen{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}4.1{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}1.48{/td}
{td}2.62{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Miguel Padilla{/td}
{td}BA{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}1.3{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}-1.23{/td}
{td}2.53{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Félix Pérez{/td}
{td}KAB{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}3.53{/td}
{td}2.47{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Stuart Binning{/td}
{td}MOS{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}3.1{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}35{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}0.70{/td}
{td}2.40{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
[xtable=skin1|@x400]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=164x@}Name{/td}
{td=63x@}Team{/td}
{td=76x@}Pos{/td}
{td=64x@}WAR{/td}
{td=64x@}CON{/td}
{td=64x@}GAP{/td}
{td=64x@}POW{/td}
{td=64x@}EYE{/td}
{td=64x@}K{/td}
{td=64x@}DEF{/td}
{td=67x@}Predicted{/td}
{td=76x@}Difference{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Tin-jong Tsao{/td}
{td}BA{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}7.9{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}3.31{/td}
{td}4.59{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Arthur Mwangata{/td}
{td}CAI{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}6.8{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.73{/td}
{td}4.07{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Larry Shaffer{/td}
{td}CAI{/td}
{td}DH{/td}
{td}3.7{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td} {/td}
{td}-0.06{/td}
{td}3.76{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Ronald Riggs{/td}
{td}MOS{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}6.4{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.79{/td}
{td}3.61{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Frédéric Carrier{/td}
{td}AMD{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}8.4{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}80{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}4.91{/td}
{td}3.49{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Enrique Gómez{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}5.7{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}2.94{/td}
{td}2.76{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Numan Farid{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}3.7{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}1.07{/td}
{td}2.63{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Michel Oversluizen{/td}
{td}LV{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}4.1{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}1.48{/td}
{td}2.62{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Miguel Padilla{/td}
{td}BA{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}1.3{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}-1.23{/td}
{td}2.53{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Félix Pérez{/td}
{td}KAB{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}3.53{/td}
{td}2.47{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Stuart Binning{/td}
{td}MOS{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}3.1{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}35{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}0.70{/td}
{td}2.40{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
I like Binning for Moscow a lot @Wendell Gee
2049 Top 10 under performers in WAR compared to ratings, based on multi-variable linear regression analysis....
[xtable=@x254]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=164x@}Name{/td}
{td=63x@}Team{/td}
{td=76x@}Pos{/td}
{td=64x@}WAR{/td}
{td=64x@}CON{/td}
{td=64x@}GAP{/td}
{td=64x@}POW{/td}
{td=64x@}EYE{/td}
{td=64x@}K{/td}
{td=64x@}DEF{/td}
{td=67x@}Predicted{/td}
{td=76x@} Difference{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Jay Brittain{/td}
{td}HEL{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}-0.1{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}4.09{/td}
{td}-4.19{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Danny Worsfold{/td}
{td}HEL{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}-1.3{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}2.08{/td}
{td}-3.38{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Jon Funk{/td}
{td}BER{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}1.9{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}5.19{/td}
{td}-3.29{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Dmitr Vajorov{/td}
{td}FB{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}-0.7{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}2.50{/td}
{td}-3.20{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Ted Carter{/td}
{td}LIS{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}2.61{/td}
{td}-2.81{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Adrián Gutiérrez{/td}
{td}FB{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}-0.8{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}1.66{/td}
{td}-2.46{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Obke van Zon{/td}
{td}LRM{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}-2.0{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}0.43{/td}
{td}-2.43{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Wesley Dalton{/td}
{td}AMD{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}-1.9{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}0.49{/td}
{td}-2.39{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Caden Traill{/td}
{td}NDR{/td}
{td}RF{/td}
{td}-1.0{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}1.34{/td}
{td}-2.34{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Nourreddine Imarika{/td}
{td}IST{/td}
{td}C{/td}
{td}-3.3{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}-1.04{/td}
{td}-2.26{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Brandon Marsh{/td}
{td}NDR{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}-0.3{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}1.91{/td}
{td}-2.21{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
[xtable=@x254]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=164x@}Name{/td}
{td=63x@}Team{/td}
{td=76x@}Pos{/td}
{td=64x@}WAR{/td}
{td=64x@}CON{/td}
{td=64x@}GAP{/td}
{td=64x@}POW{/td}
{td=64x@}EYE{/td}
{td=64x@}K{/td}
{td=64x@}DEF{/td}
{td=67x@}Predicted{/td}
{td=76x@} Difference{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Jay Brittain{/td}
{td}HEL{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}-0.1{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}4.09{/td}
{td}-4.19{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Danny Worsfold{/td}
{td}HEL{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}-1.3{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}2.08{/td}
{td}-3.38{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Jon Funk{/td}
{td}BER{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}1.9{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}5.19{/td}
{td}-3.29{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Dmitr Vajorov{/td}
{td}FB{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}-0.7{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}2.50{/td}
{td}-3.20{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Ted Carter{/td}
{td}LIS{/td}
{td}3B{/td}
{td}-0.2{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}2.61{/td}
{td}-2.81{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Adrián Gutiérrez{/td}
{td}FB{/td}
{td}CF{/td}
{td}-0.8{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}1.66{/td}
{td}-2.46{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Obke van Zon{/td}
{td}LRM{/td}
{td}1B{/td}
{td}-2.0{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}0.43{/td}
{td}-2.43{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Wesley Dalton{/td}
{td}AMD{/td}
{td}2B{/td}
{td}-1.9{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}0.49{/td}
{td}-2.39{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Caden Traill{/td}
{td}NDR{/td}
{td}RF{/td}
{td}-1.0{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}1.34{/td}
{td}-2.34{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Nourreddine Imarika{/td}
{td}IST{/td}
{td}C{/td}
{td}-3.3{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}45{/td}
{td}-1.04{/td}
{td}-2.26{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Brandon Marsh{/td}
{td}NDR{/td}
{td}LF{/td}
{td}-0.3{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}1.91{/td}
{td}-2.21{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
I gave binning away for free too
It is surprising to see Carrier only predicted at 4.91 WAR. Something wrong with yo system. Maybe it's because he plays first?
Carrier has the second highest predicted WAR in the league. Jon Funk has the highest and obviously under performed enough to be on the under performers list.
When you do a regression analysis on all of these things at once, predicted WAR is always going to be closer to the center than your outliers on either end of the performance extremes. Carrier's performances have always been statistical outliers anyway, lol. At least he's in the same galaxy as the top players this year instead of being 4 standard devs out. Prolly dialed back on the PEDs when I raised suspicions on him last season.
Yeah I figured, you can't do a catchall for the greats. They defy logic. I was just curious what in the analysis would have held him back
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
Someone should analyze lineup protection. Look at Over with me before I traded Chong and Tapley, after I traded them, and then Over after I traded him to Doh.
I guess doh was platooning him but still.
To me that means you should just trade everyone at once or not at all.
I guess doh was platooning him but still.
To me that means you should just trade everyone at once or not at all.
His 45K rating and 50 Gap ratings, while in less important categories, are still at or below league average in those categories. He's still got high ratings in the important spots enough to be one of the top predicted players in the league, obviously, but those are what hold his predicted WAR back.
Yeah Carrier pretty much performed as expected.
Whole Borg team prob on that underperformers list if you expand it haha.
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
Wasn't Funk injured?
I think you can see that certain teams got hot while others were cold all season. Orlando's entire lineup for instance, was down -16 WAR between observed and predicted.
Doh's entire lineup was +10 WAR between observed and predicted. There are various ways to explain that. Either doh is good at making sure his players are in the right spots for them to succeed and Orlando is doing a horrible job, or Doh's team got hot and Orlando's got cold, or a little bit of both. Given the fact that Doh and Orlando are both experienced owners with very good management track records in the league, I'd guess Doh's management played a part and luck added some more and then Orlando just got screwed.
When you look at my two major under performers (Caden Trail and Brandon Marsh) they literally spent almost the entire season in "cold streaks." I'd bench them in favor of hot players for a while, but even when I'd try to ease them back in they'd go cold again and again.
Where do you get 50 gap? OSA has him at 55 and so does my scout. I knew the 45 k rating would be a big issue
ZackMills
Have mercy
Those might be my scout ratings, lol. OOOOOPS. I ran them both ways with scout and OSA, but I gotta keep some things as trade secrets
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
Damn Travis just called Notch Qualsson out
I predict a reversion to the mean at least for Orlando this next season, lol.
It's not a big deal or anything haha, I was just curious. I'm not going to get mad at a regression analysis slight towards CarrierThose might be my scout ratings, lol. OOOOOPS. I ran them both ways with scout and OSA, but I gotta keep some things as trade secrets
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
LMao @ notch
Guess Which intangible correlates most to WAR...
Lloyd Carr
Well-Known Member
Desire for Win
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Greed
Who?
Well first of all, none of the intangibles correlate with WAR enough to not wash out compared to the ratings, so keep that in mind.
The greatest correlation was Desire for Winner, like @Lloyd Carr guessed. This is a good example of correlation probably not equaling causation and likely can be explained by selection bias as those players probably tend to play for winners more often. Still, if you are good team with the last pick in the 20th round of the draft and staring at a sea of 30 ratings, might as well pick the dude who aspires to be on your winning team!
Other intangibles have very slight positive correlation in this order:
Leadership
Intelligence
Work Ethic
Loyalty and Greed have zero correlation.
The way these intangibles are described by the OOTP devs, we should not expect them to have much impact at all on the statistical performance of players, and I was pleased to see that. I figured it was worth checking just in case there was some super secret correlation! These ratings all likely have much more to do with the player's development, likelyhood of stabbing theirselves, and contract negations.
The greatest correlation was Desire for Winner, like @Lloyd Carr guessed. This is a good example of correlation probably not equaling causation and likely can be explained by selection bias as those players probably tend to play for winners more often. Still, if you are good team with the last pick in the 20th round of the draft and staring at a sea of 30 ratings, might as well pick the dude who aspires to be on your winning team!
Other intangibles have very slight positive correlation in this order:
Leadership
Intelligence
Work Ethic
Loyalty and Greed have zero correlation.
The way these intangibles are described by the OOTP devs, we should not expect them to have much impact at all on the statistical performance of players, and I was pleased to see that. I figured it was worth checking just in case there was some super secret correlation! These ratings all likely have much more to do with the player's development, likelyhood of stabbing theirselves, and contract negations.
Borg was just deflated and unmotivated after losing to Kabul.
Gooksta
Well-Known Member
Can you correlate intanginbls to most unexpected player growth? Is there an intangible that would possibly increase the percentage of player developing past their intial ceilings? example Mario Baez on kw
I should say while I've been doing this, I've run regression on basically every single rating to see if there happened to be anything really strange going on. There really isn't anything weird in our data set, which is nice. The game largely functions as the developers say it should and that is so cool. Every rating really does function as they say it should. There is enough randomness, error, etc built into the game engine so that it isn't just a slam dunk either. You'll have players who outperform ratings and those who under perform, etc.
Compare that to ratings in EA sports games. I saw a regression analysis someone did on data EA released from FUT matches and it basically showed that in gameplay the only things that really mattered were speed, strength, acceleration, etc. and like 90% of the technical/skill/intelligence/etc attributes just completely washed out to nothing. That's where FUTHead came up with their BEAST rating. Trogs like Emenike, Ibarbo, etc are just infinitely better than they should be because EA don't know how the fuck their own game works.
Compare that to ratings in EA sports games. I saw a regression analysis someone did on data EA released from FUT matches and it basically showed that in gameplay the only things that really mattered were speed, strength, acceleration, etc. and like 90% of the technical/skill/intelligence/etc attributes just completely washed out to nothing. That's where FUTHead came up with their BEAST rating. Trogs like Emenike, Ibarbo, etc are just infinitely better than they should be because EA don't know how the fuck their own game works.