Brick
Well-Known Member
@MSUFanatic
I watched most of the Michigan State game, and all of Oregon's. Some things I'm looking for.
- MSU is missing Lippett at WR. Had more than double the yards, catches, TDs of any other receiver last year. Their talent at WR looks great and I think they'll get much better very quickly, but timing was off on a lot of "simple" throws in their system, especially at the sticks (48.4 completion %) that would have been sure things last year. The offense just never looked consistently comfortable in the pass game that I saw.
Probably had a lot to do with it being the first game, new roles, playing on the road. Oregon plays bend-but-not-break in the pass game so Cook will have to make some difficult timing throws on 2nd/3rd downs. That is the key to the game on offense for MSU. I think their run game will have mixed success against Oregon's defense.
Oregon still looks like they'll struggle to get to the QB this year. One sack on Eastern Washington on 55 attempts. Cook will have time to throw, just as he did last year for most of the game. Oregon's secondary is all freshman and sophomores with the exception of Reggie Daniels. There will be many opportunities for big plays.
I am just hoping MSU is stubborn with the run game Saturday. Oregon should be able to hold serve there. They won't shut MSU down there, but should be able to make enough plays to make the passing game important on third downs.
- When Oregon has the ball, I think how MSU defends the run game is the key. It was Eastern Washington, but Oregon's run game went for 485 yards (8.51 YPC) and I thought Royce Freeman showed marked improvement from last year. Oregon didn't run for more than 301 yards in any game last year. Royce was big last year, but looks more athletic now and definitely one of the best running backs in the country. I bet he will get 25+ carries. Adams ran the ball well too, and the two backups (Beniot and Brooks-James) looked ready.
Michigan State was strong against Western Michigan (18 yards on 23 attempts) and I was really impressed by the athleticism and size of their front. Will they be able to break through and get TFLs and put Adams in situations where he has to make plays with his feet or make risky throws?
Adams did not turn the ball over much at all at Eastern Washington, but he looked excitable at times Saturday and fumbled on a run, as well as throwing a ball that should have been picked. Oregon should be able to move it very well, but turnovers could be an issue.
- Michigan State's biggest issue against teams with offensive talent like Oregon is giving up huge gains in the passing game. Against that type of competition last year:
Oregon went 17/28 for 318 yards and a 3/0 ratio
Ohio State went 16/26 for 300 yards and a 3/0 ratio
Baylor went 37/52 for 603 yards and a 4/1 ratio
TOTALS: 70/106 (66%) for 1221 yards and 10/1 ratio
Oy.
Western Michigan had some good success in the air last week - 33/50 for 365 yards and a 2/2 ratio.
I think Adams can put up very good numbers against Michigan State, but turnovers could be an issue.
Basically, between the inexperience of Michigan State's skill players, and Adams being new to Oregon's system and showing a bit of TO vulnerability last week, I think we'll see one of those sides, if not both, making mistakes with the ball. Neither offense should have trouble moving it most if not all of the game, but I trust MSU will be less prone with it being a home game and Cook's experience.
I think Michigan State will win it close, something like 31-24 maybe? I don't think it will be as high scoring as I'm sure many will predict.
I do feel good about it compared to how I did in the offseason, however. If MSU still had Langford, Hill, Mumphrey, Lippett I'd be terrified. I just think they will take a while to really get going with the new skill guys. But with how horrible Oregon's secondary looked against inexperienced QBs last week, it may not matter.
If Cook is clicking early, it could be a bloodbath. If not, I think it's more of a toss-up.
I watched most of the Michigan State game, and all of Oregon's. Some things I'm looking for.
- MSU is missing Lippett at WR. Had more than double the yards, catches, TDs of any other receiver last year. Their talent at WR looks great and I think they'll get much better very quickly, but timing was off on a lot of "simple" throws in their system, especially at the sticks (48.4 completion %) that would have been sure things last year. The offense just never looked consistently comfortable in the pass game that I saw.
Probably had a lot to do with it being the first game, new roles, playing on the road. Oregon plays bend-but-not-break in the pass game so Cook will have to make some difficult timing throws on 2nd/3rd downs. That is the key to the game on offense for MSU. I think their run game will have mixed success against Oregon's defense.
Oregon still looks like they'll struggle to get to the QB this year. One sack on Eastern Washington on 55 attempts. Cook will have time to throw, just as he did last year for most of the game. Oregon's secondary is all freshman and sophomores with the exception of Reggie Daniels. There will be many opportunities for big plays.
I am just hoping MSU is stubborn with the run game Saturday. Oregon should be able to hold serve there. They won't shut MSU down there, but should be able to make enough plays to make the passing game important on third downs.
- When Oregon has the ball, I think how MSU defends the run game is the key. It was Eastern Washington, but Oregon's run game went for 485 yards (8.51 YPC) and I thought Royce Freeman showed marked improvement from last year. Oregon didn't run for more than 301 yards in any game last year. Royce was big last year, but looks more athletic now and definitely one of the best running backs in the country. I bet he will get 25+ carries. Adams ran the ball well too, and the two backups (Beniot and Brooks-James) looked ready.
Michigan State was strong against Western Michigan (18 yards on 23 attempts) and I was really impressed by the athleticism and size of their front. Will they be able to break through and get TFLs and put Adams in situations where he has to make plays with his feet or make risky throws?
Adams did not turn the ball over much at all at Eastern Washington, but he looked excitable at times Saturday and fumbled on a run, as well as throwing a ball that should have been picked. Oregon should be able to move it very well, but turnovers could be an issue.
- Michigan State's biggest issue against teams with offensive talent like Oregon is giving up huge gains in the passing game. Against that type of competition last year:
Oregon went 17/28 for 318 yards and a 3/0 ratio
Ohio State went 16/26 for 300 yards and a 3/0 ratio
Baylor went 37/52 for 603 yards and a 4/1 ratio
TOTALS: 70/106 (66%) for 1221 yards and 10/1 ratio
Oy.
Western Michigan had some good success in the air last week - 33/50 for 365 yards and a 2/2 ratio.
I think Adams can put up very good numbers against Michigan State, but turnovers could be an issue.
Basically, between the inexperience of Michigan State's skill players, and Adams being new to Oregon's system and showing a bit of TO vulnerability last week, I think we'll see one of those sides, if not both, making mistakes with the ball. Neither offense should have trouble moving it most if not all of the game, but I trust MSU will be less prone with it being a home game and Cook's experience.
I think Michigan State will win it close, something like 31-24 maybe? I don't think it will be as high scoring as I'm sure many will predict.
I do feel good about it compared to how I did in the offseason, however. If MSU still had Langford, Hill, Mumphrey, Lippett I'd be terrified. I just think they will take a while to really get going with the new skill guys. But with how horrible Oregon's secondary looked against inexperienced QBs last week, it may not matter.
If Cook is clicking early, it could be a bloodbath. If not, I think it's more of a toss-up.
