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2023 Season: The Week 7 Thread - Sweet Jane
- Thread starter bruin
- Start date
Brick
Well-Known Member
i dont get the "complete team" thing. are you basing the D off stats? we are a few weeks away from stats telling a story especially for oregon since theyve had a 2 game schedule (which isnt their fault)
there's no evidence at all that oregon has a "good to great" defense. UW and TTU had no problems at all moving the ball and at no point did the defense look dominant. they gave up a TD or more in 7 of 8 quarters. TTU had 4 tds drive of 75 yards or more. they are gonna play much better offenses than TTU. relative to last year which was an awful group they are better.
their total D is high but the rest of their schedule is atrocious offenses + i guess colorado who ran into a buzzsaw and cant run.
can say what you want about lupoi's role but jonathan smith/lincoln riley is an enormous coaching mismatch.
the LBs are bad man. UW is not a good rushing team and johnson had a great game getting them in favorable down and distance. they are not a good TFL team and they sacked penix once. utah, usc, and osu are miles past any of the teams theyve faced on the ground so far. i would be worried about getting off the field.
the season hinges on BUCKY, james, and franklin having huge games and nix not making mistakes. the RB group is easily the best since helfrich's last year. the rest of the skill group is just a collection of OK guys.
they had one of the best pass pro lines in FBS history last year and DILLY is great. nix will never stand back there and take a hit. that isnt gonna change and they are gonna pay for that more this year with him throwing it in the dirt. they had 3 3 and outs yesterday and 3 against TTU. if he is gonna throw a bunch of dink and dunk shit they should just be pounding with BUCKY and james. theyre the best part of the team.
i can understand being optimistic but to win out they would have to beat 5 teams that are objectively capable of beating them. i dont see it at all.
there's no evidence at all that oregon has a "good to great" defense. UW and TTU had no problems at all moving the ball and at no point did the defense look dominant. they gave up a TD or more in 7 of 8 quarters. TTU had 4 tds drive of 75 yards or more. they are gonna play much better offenses than TTU. relative to last year which was an awful group they are better.
their total D is high but the rest of their schedule is atrocious offenses + i guess colorado who ran into a buzzsaw and cant run.
can say what you want about lupoi's role but jonathan smith/lincoln riley is an enormous coaching mismatch.
the LBs are bad man. UW is not a good rushing team and johnson had a great game getting them in favorable down and distance. they are not a good TFL team and they sacked penix once. utah, usc, and osu are miles past any of the teams theyve faced on the ground so far. i would be worried about getting off the field.
the season hinges on BUCKY, james, and franklin having huge games and nix not making mistakes. the RB group is easily the best since helfrich's last year. the rest of the skill group is just a collection of OK guys.
they had one of the best pass pro lines in FBS history last year and DILLY is great. nix will never stand back there and take a hit. that isnt gonna change and they are gonna pay for that more this year with him throwing it in the dirt. they had 3 3 and outs yesterday and 3 against TTU. if he is gonna throw a bunch of dink and dunk shit they should just be pounding with BUCKY and james. theyre the best part of the team.
i can understand being optimistic but to win out they would have to beat 5 teams that are objectively capable of beating them. i dont see it at all.
Lightningwar
Administrator
I want to get this thread back on track
Good day for me, A&M, Miami lost. FSU slept walk to a 38 point victory.
Unfortunately it is confirmed, the NDSU dynasty is officially over. Had a great 12 year run.
Good day for me, A&M, Miami lost. FSU slept walk to a 38 point victory.
Unfortunately it is confirmed, the NDSU dynasty is officially over. Had a great 12 year run.
Mame YO
slings rocks
This early in the season I try not to base it off of team stats per se. Aside from just watching the games I’m looking at individual grade systems like PFF when I can get them, charting where I can find it. For example, according to PFF Oregon’s DL has 5 of the 10 highest graded players in the pac12. I’ve mentioned one consistent source that I use, hythloday, and if you’re paying attention to Oregon football his articles are a must read. He does a preview and a retrospective every week. He’s the guy I mentioned that charts everyone.
UW is a really unique challenge given their QB+WR talent but they scored on 5 of 10 drives. Funnily enough, my prediction of 42-31 Oregon was based on 5 scoring drives for UW (but I thought Oregon would also stop them for a FG somewhere in there rather than a TD). The only other team that held them to 5 scoring drives this season was Arizona, also on 10 drives with one turnover.
Aside from the INT that Oregon failed to capitalize on, Oregon’s comeback from 29-18 included 2 punts and a turnover on downs from Washington, with Oregon scoring on 2 drives between. Oregon gets blown out without that defensive performance. UW’s game winning drive was set up with a short field. Would things be different if UW had to drive 80+ yards instead of 50? Idk. I do know that if Oregon’s defense wasn’t significantly improved from last year that this would’ve been a blowout, though. No doubt about it.
I don’t trust lepoi. I won’t argue this.
I do wonder how much of this is structural though. Oregon runs a 3-3-5 base defense that’s essentially meant to be like a hybrid 3-4. The down linemen play like in a 3-4 where the NT controls both A gaps and the DEs play more like interior DL and they control the B gaps. This leaves a hybrid LB/DB and an EDGE (LB/DE type) to set the edges. This works in theory by spilling interior runs out to the edge where defensive speed limits run success.
UW exploited this by running to the outside with pulled linemen. This achieved two main goals: 1) it kept Oregon relatively honest against the pass and 2) it helped ameliorate for the advantage that Oregon’s DL had against the OL, especially against the interior OL.
Oregon didn’t really have an answer for this other than just better contain. Schematically, it’s a difficult adjustment.
The LB group is probably the weakest group right now but Jestin Jacobs is widely considered the best LB Oregon has and he still hasn’t taken his spot. He’s been practicing for the last two weeks but didn’t play. This part is speculative to a certain extent but you might remember him from Iowa.
I mostly agree with this. I do think the WR group is better than you’re giving credit for but for some reason they have been underutilized by Willy. Bryant catches basically anything thrown his way and Tez is elusive and has chemistry with Nix. Last year’s line was an anomaly but they still have a good line overall. Nix is a bit scared this year compared to last. They don’t run the QB runs hardly at all this year and they kind of need it imo but I’m also not concerned about Nix’s pro career so.
To me I see the wazzu line as a dealbreaker. I saw their game against UCLA and it looks like a problem. Utah is not the same as they have been in years past, their offense is just bad. If Oregon scores 21+, do you have any confidence that Utah can keep up? UCLA has a good defense but a mistake prone first year QB and no offensive line. USC is a tough game which is why I bought tickets for it, but they don’t have the matchup advantages that UW had and their defense is worse than UW’s too. The game is also at home. I feel good about that one although Caleb could be Caleb. OSU might be a problem? It’s a home game for Oregon though so I feel okay about it. Beyond that, talent as a predictor is generally supportive of the idea that Oregon should be able to beat teams like OSU more often than not. I’ll take that.
I’m not saying nor was I ever saying that I predict that Oregon will run the table. I am saying that there is enough in Oregon’s favor in my view that I believe it’s entirely possible. This isn’t like previous years where they got exposed early or had to boat race every team because their defense is bad. If you aren’t convinced I think you will be convinced by the end of the year even if they end up 10-2. This is the most complete team they’ve had in a long time.
Brick
Well-Known Member
this is the disconnect where oregon thinks they are LSU/ohio state talent level or something. ill take oregon state and utah being 4-2 in the last 6 against oregon with osu beating them twice with backup qbs and utah straight up embarassing them twice.
Mame YO
slings rocks
I mean, depending on the source they have one of the most talented rosters in the nation, and aside from USC nobody else in the pac12 is close. Recruiting rankings are kind of like BMI in that they don’t tell individual stories very well, but in general they’re more or less predictive taken more broadly.
Brick
Well-Known Member
these sound like the dumbest people in history
Brick
Well-Known Member
theres an inverse relationship between CROOTIN rankings and oregon performance the last 20 years.
Mame YO
slings rocks
And the past games have limited predictive value too, since Lanning just took over the progrum last year.
I lol’ed at this though. It’s been rough with Taggert and CRISTOBUM but Lanning seems to be making an impact imo. If I’m right about the defense, at least.
Mame YO
slings rocks
I’m not going to spoiler it every time I sperg, sorry.
Brick
Well-Known Member
its amazing how CRISTOBUM crooted a oline that immediately became dominant once they ditched the HARD NOSE bullshit and hired a real OC. i will give lanning credit for hiring DILLY and things look good for stein. how the fuck is he hiring tosh as a DC though. he should be taking over the D if that is his specialty. tired of HCs who are fucking useless on gameday.
Mame YO
slings rocks
My hypothesis/head cannon/hope is that the co-dc has taken over a lot of duties. They generally have made better adjustments this year. It’s the same basic structure since that’s Lanning’s system (and Kirby’s) but it’s been better.
Ander1345
I ain't got friends, I got FamILLy
College football fans are an awful dumb lot.
Brick
Well-Known Member
i dont get why you hire someone who isnt running either an O/D by hisself to be CEO corch for his first head coaching job at 37 yo.
YallDontWantTo.gif
adchester
A-1 From Day 1
Ho Lee fuk u spergs going at it is less interesting than reading @Travis7401 spamming hachikos anime posts
Brick
Well-Known Member
hush WE THE NORTH chud
Don't imagine me!
Brick
Well-Known Member
Dr. Shats Basoon
Closed mouths don't get fed
I must be in the minority but I would much rather read posts of those two arguing than the endless white noise of regurgitating some local journos tweets
Mr. Radpants
Trog Five Standing By
I think they should have their own Gooksta Cubs thread
