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2023 Season: The Week 7 Thread - Sweet Jane

bruin

bruin

Well-Known Member
Anyone who's ever had a heart
Wouldn't turn around and break it
And anyone who's ever played a part
Wouldn't turn around and hate it

What's good brohans? Week 7 is here. GAMEDAY is heading to Seattle for the first ever top 10 matchup in the Washington-Oregon rivalry. We have games starting on Tuesday this week. MLB Playoffs are here, NHL starts and we'll continue rocking in the free world. Cheers, bros.



Notable matchups:
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State, 4:30 PT - ESPN 2 (Tuesday)
UTEP at Florida International, 4:30 PT - ESPN 2 (Wednesday)
West Virginia at Houston, 4:00 PT - FS1 (Thursday)
Fresno State at Utah State, 5:00 PT - CBS SPORTS NET (Friday)
Syracuse at Florida State, 9:00 AM PT - ABC
Arkansas at Alabama, 9:00 AM PT, ESPN
Oregon at Washington, 12:30 PT - ABC
Texas A&M at Tennessee, 12:30 PT - CBS
BYU at TCU, 12:30- ESPN
Louisville at Pitt, 3:30 PT (CW)
Arizona at Washington State, 4:00 PT - PAC-12 NET
USC at Notre Dame, 4:30 PT - NBC
Miami at North Carolina, 4:30 PT - ABC
UCLA at Oregon State, 5:00 PT - FOX
NC State at Duke, 5:00 PT - ACC NET

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Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Here are my thoughts on the key matchups for Oregon @ Washington:

Oregon’s DL is the strength of their defense, with 5 of the top 10 highest rated DLs in the pac12, per PFF. They run a 3 man front and no DL has played more than 50% of available snaps. It’s a deep group that generates a lot of havoc. UW has very good passing protection, one of the best units in the nation so far, anchored by Fautanu.

One thing to consider is that neither of these units has really faced a good opposing unit that tested them so far this season. Oregon did face a really good passing attack in Colorado, but their OL is trash. Washington hasn’t really seen any defenses that really tested their OL.

One last thing to consider for this matchup is how the QB handles pressure, and Penix is probably the best in the nation at handling what little pressure he’s faced with:
IMG_1396.jpeg
It’s well known that Washington has one of the best, if not *the* best receiver group in the nation. I’m not even going to really go into it because it isn’t even in dispute. The question is this: has Oregon’s secondary improved as much as the stats suggest? How much of the passing efficiency defense is based on Oregon’s much improved pass rush vs. improved personnel in the secondary vs. weak competition?

Kyhree Jackson, a transfer from Alabama, has been amazing. That is certain. He has been a blanket in coverage and has active, smart hands. Beyond that, both starting safeties, transfers, have been an upgrade. Dontae Manning is the lone DB from last year starting for the Ducks. He did good against Colorado! The rest of last year’s group excluding Gonzales are all in back up roles this year.

Is this legit?
IMG_1386.png
I’ll be blunt here: Washington’s defense hasn’t been that impressive IMO. They don’t disrupt offenses - having both a very low stuff rate and a very low sack rate. They also have a tendency to to play their CBs off the line of scrimmage, prioritizing explosive plays, which makes sense given their offense. I’m expecting them to adjust this based on Oregon’s short passing game and running attack. That’s what brings me to this key positional matchup…

Muhammad has been very good in coverage for Washington. If Washington is going to slow down the Oregon offense, they need Muhammad to contain Troy Franklin so that they can play closer to the line. If he can lock Franklin down, Oregon will struggle to punish UW. If they can’t, well, that’s what Oregon’s offense is designed to do. Dink and dunk and then Franklin over the top.
To the extent that Oregon has struggled defensively, it’s specifically been against the QB run. I doubt it, but Washington *could* try to exploit this. If they choose to do so, however, Oregon HAS succeeded in adjusting for this. Per Hythloday:
The QB run issue can be further isolated by halftime splits – 20 of the 25 designed QB runs the Ducks defended came in first halves, and Oregon defended them at a 40% success rate, but upon figuring them out and making halftime adjustments, opponents reduced QB runs to just five times in second halves, with the Ducks winning on 60% of them.
Click to expand...
I.e. teams have abandoned the QB run, and the running game more generally which Oregon is actually pretty good against, in the 2nd half.

…

On a related note: Oregon has done a much better job this year of making defensive adjustments. They brought in a new DB corch and named him co-DC. I don’t know if this is his doing, or Lupoi (lol) but there are examples of this in every game so far this season. They have not been asked to make additional adjustments in response to their initial changes, however. By the time they adjust for the QB run, for example, Oregon pulls away and the rest of the game is effectively garbage time. A team that can make multiple adjustments in game may cause problems.

…

Washington fans are concerned that Penix has been getting away with some throws that he won’t be able to get away with against better competition. There seems to be some negative homerism going on here, but also, Penix did make some costly throws last year. If Oregon’s defense is legit, he may get caught forcing some balls.

…

And the same goes for Nix! If Washington can neutralize Franklin and play at the line of scrimmage, that forces Nix into more intermediate throws than he’s used to, and we may see a return of Bo PIX.
In summary: this is the game where we find out if Oregon’s defense is legit. Most of my keys revolve around this uncertainty. If this is anything like last year’s defense they lose. If it’s real, they are probably the best team in the pac-12.

IMO this is easily one of the top games for the entire season. It should be fun!

Final answer: Oregon 42, Washington 31.
 
Last edited:
kella

kella

Low IQ fat ass with depression and anxiety
Staff member
Administrator
Operations
I am going to be utterly blotto at SNALLYGASTER during the day Saturday but let's fucking go PENIX
 
adchester

adchester

A-1 From Day 1
Mame YO said:
Here are my thoughts on the key matchups for Oregon @ Washington:

Oregon’s DL is the strength of their defense, with 5 of the top 10 highest rated DLs in the pac12, per PFF. They run a 3 man front and no DL has played more than 50% of available snaps. It’s a deep group that generates a lot of havoc. UW has very good passing protection, one of the best units in the nation so far, anchored by Fautanu.

One thing to consider is that neither of these units has really faced a good opposing unit that tested them so far this season. Oregon did face a really good passing attack in Colorado, but their OL is trash. Washington hasn’t really seen any defenses that really tested their OL.

One last thing to consider for this matchup is how the QB handles pressure, and Penix is probably the best in the nation at handling what little pressure he’s faced with:
View attachment 30021
It’s well known that Washington has one of the best, if not *the* best receiver group in the nation. I’m not even going to really go into it because it isn’t even in dispute. The question is this: has Oregon’s secondary improved as much as the stats suggest? How much of the passing efficiency defense is based on Oregon’s much improved pass rush vs. improved personnel in the secondary vs. weak competition?

Kyhree Jackson, a transfer from Alabama, has been amazing. That is certain. He has been a blanket in coverage and has active, smart hands. Beyond that, both starting safeties, transfers, have been an upgrade. Dontae Manning is the lone DB from last year starting for the Ducks. He did good against Colorado! The rest of last year’s group excluding Gonzales are all in back up roles this year.

Is this legit?
View attachment 30022
I’ll be blunt here: Washington’s defense hasn’t been that impressive IMO. They don’t disrupt offenses - having both a very low stuff rate and a very low sack rate. They also have a tendency to to play their CBs off the line of scrimmage, prioritizing explosive plays, which makes sense given their offense. I’m expecting them to adjust this based on Oregon’s short passing game and running attack. That’s what brings me to this key positional matchup…

Muhammad has been very good in coverage for Washington. If Washington is going to slow down the Oregon offense, they need Muhammad to contain Troy Franklin so that they can play closer to the line. If he can lock Franklin down, Oregon will struggle to punish UW. If they can’t, well, that’s what Oregon’s offense is designed to do. Dink and dunk and then Franklin over the top.
To the extent that Oregon has struggled defensively, it’s specifically been against the QB run. I doubt it, but Washington *could* try to exploit this. If they choose to do so, however, Oregon HAS succeeded in adjusting for this. Per Hythloday:

I.e. teams have abandoned the QB run, and the running game more generally which Oregon is actually pretty good against, in the 2nd half.

…

On a related note: Oregon has done a much better job this year of making defensive adjustments. They brought in a new DB corch and named him co-DC. I don’t know if this is his doing, or Lupoi (lol) but there are examples of this in every game so far this season. They have not been asked to make additional adjustments in response to their initial changes, however. By the time they adjust for the QB run, for example, Oregon pulls away and the rest of the game is effectively garbage time. A team that can make multiple adjustments in game may cause problems.

…

Washington fans are concerned that Penix has been getting away with some throws that he won’t be able to get away with against better competition. There seems to be some negative homerism going on here, but also, Penix did make some costly throws last year. If Oregon’s defense is legit, he may get caught forcing some balls.

…

And the same goes for Nix! If Washington can neutralize Franklin and play at the line of scrimmage, that forces Nix into more intermediate throws than he’s used to, and we may see a return of Bo PIX.
In summary: this is the game where we find out if Oregon’s defense is legit. Most of my keys revolve around this uncertainty. If this is anything like last year’s defense they lose. If it’s real, they are probably the best team in the pac-12.

IMO this is easily one of the top games for the entire season. It should be fun!

Final answer: Oregon 42, Washington 31.
Click to expand...
TL;DR
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
The best part of that model is that Oregon wins no matter who you put them up against lol. It does say that teams that have played weak schedules are currently overvalued though. Grain assault!
IMG_1416.png
 
Brick

Brick

Well-Known Member
this app state coastal game is fireemoji. tied and just had crazy back to back turnovers. FUN FUN FUN
 
Travis7401

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Lol, yeah I definitely missed my calling - woulda put my VENDOR BELT on and walked in as a beer vendor at every NFL stadium and as a lemonade/hot chocolate vendor at the college stadiums!
 
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