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Take It To The Bank - Utopia Betting Thread
- Thread starter PSUEagle
- Start date
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
I don't expect Rutgers to score a point. If that's a reverse jinx, so be it.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
More like on top of the train bridge.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
That pointless Pick-6 cost me that under.
Rutgers was pathetic as expected on offense, but it turns out Corey Clement is a difference maker for the Badgers offense: by far the best they've looked all year.
goblue96
Disney and Curling Expert
We goin' Sizzler.
Bdub
Well-Known Member
Hit on all but Notre Dame. Twas a good day
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Sorry dude: feel like I personally let you down
Taking Vandy was stupid on my part: should have played the under instead. The rest of the picks were decent IMO based on what I knew at the time: just didn't work out.
Chad Morris is a Mark Stoops level moron when it comes to game management. How do you not kick a FG down 9 with ~40 seconds left and then onside? Every 10 year old that plays Madden knows this, but not that asshole. Spent too much time learning from Dabo, I guess.
I hope he walked into his house tonight and saw his wife getting railed by the poolboy: fuck him.
Good stuff.
That Washington call was really strong: I was tempted to tail it late, but didn't want to risk going 2-6 if neither school from the state came through
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Well it's down to 14 already but I'll say giving up nearly 100 points combined to Tennessee and Mississippi state in consecutive weeks has something to do with it. They are still probably the most talented overall team in the east.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
Michigan -21.5
BET THE FUCKING FARM!
BET THE FUCKING FARM!
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
If Rudock plays, sure. If not, I would avoid that line. Might be a 14-0 type game.
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
I don't know if I'll bet it necessarily, but UGA's QB situation is so bad that even Kentucky's defense could look competent in that game. I swore I wouldn't bet Kentucky anymore after their game against Mississippi State, but I'll at least think about this one.
One of the games I'm kicking myself for not taking earlier this year was Mizzou +16 vs UGA: I don't think this Georgia team should be a huge favorite over anyone in SEC play.
I don't like betting huge favorites, especially if they're mediocre to bad on offense like Michigan is. Would think about the under but it'll probably be high 30's or something ridiculous.
-16.5 and climbing. Strongly thinking about playing OSU again this week: just wished they were a little bit better as a team.
Other Pac-12 lines of interest:
Wazzu -1: don't know about their pysche, but my gut is they rebound well. I can see them putting up a lot of yards in the air since ASU is bound to bust 3-4 coverages each game.
Cal +6: Bear Raid has kind of struggled in conference play, but UO's defense is so bad against the pass: have to think Goff will shred that back 7 with ease.
Arizona +17.5: Don't have a feel for this game, but thought this line seemed high. Could see Arizona's offense playing well enough to keep it interesting.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
A) Rutgers is terrible on the road
B) Rutgers defense is terrible
C) Rutgers defense is gonna make Rudock look like Elvis Grbac
D) Rutgers barely beat them last year with @goblue96 's house guest coaching.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
Rutgers D will make Shane Morris look like the second coming on Todd Collins
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Well, that definitely won't happen, considering he's not even the backup.
Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
Well whoever the backup QB is, will look like some former Michigan great QB.
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Lines I'm looking at for this Saturday: please feel free to comment/offer suggestions. I won't come close to playing all of these, but these are the lines that looked interesting to me so far.
UNC -7.5
WVU 80 Under
Michigan 51 Under (or maybe just under or Rutgers' total)
Wisconsin -11.5 (think they're much better on offense now that Clement is back)
Cal +4.5 or 76 Over (or both)
Kentucky +14.5
Wazzu -2.5
Michigan State 32 Total Over
Washington -1.5
USC 67 Over (or maybe Arizona +20)
Oregon State +17.5
Colorado +16
TCU 76 Over
Alabama 47.5 Over
UNC -7.5
WVU 80 Under
Michigan 51 Under (or maybe just under or Rutgers' total)
Wisconsin -11.5 (think they're much better on offense now that Clement is back)
Cal +4.5 or 76 Over (or both)
Kentucky +14.5
Wazzu -2.5
Michigan State 32 Total Over
Washington -1.5
USC 67 Over (or maybe Arizona +20)
Oregon State +17.5
Colorado +16
TCU 76 Over
Alabama 47.5 Over
Brick
Well-Known Member
@PSUEagle
UNC -7.5 williams is a spazzy boy, nope
WVU 80 Under i want to agree and say WVU's offense isn't good enough, but TTU has allowed 70, 63, 63, 55 this year
Michigan 51 Under (or maybe just under or Rutgers' total) i think harbaugh names the score, and that could be a bad thing
Wisconsin -11.5 (think they're much better on offense now that Clement is back) nah, they just played @Rutgers Mike
Cal +4.5 or 76 Over (or both) just take the over, i think it's a tossup
Kentucky +14.5 yes, yes, yes
Wazzu -2.5 you really feel that strongly about them winning?
Michigan State 32 Total Over they've only done that in 3 of their 8 games. overreaction to nebraska giving up all them point last week
Washington -1.5 i'd take utah straight up. washington isn't going to beat them at their own game. BOOKER rides 83 yards on 35 carries @Bdub
USC 67 Over (or maybe Arizona +20) take the over
Oregon State +17.5 nope
Colorado +16 yep
TCU 76 Over i have a feeling this one will be lower scoring, no
Alabama 47.5 Over nope, self-fulfilling SEC DEFENSE prophecy in this one. crazy that lowest point total LSU has allowed is 19, doe.
indiana +8 over iowa is a no-brainer to me
take aTm -8.5 over barn
UNC -7.5 williams is a spazzy boy, nope
WVU 80 Under i want to agree and say WVU's offense isn't good enough, but TTU has allowed 70, 63, 63, 55 this year
Michigan 51 Under (or maybe just under or Rutgers' total) i think harbaugh names the score, and that could be a bad thing
Wisconsin -11.5 (think they're much better on offense now that Clement is back) nah, they just played @Rutgers Mike
Cal +4.5 or 76 Over (or both) just take the over, i think it's a tossup
Kentucky +14.5 yes, yes, yes
Wazzu -2.5 you really feel that strongly about them winning?
Michigan State 32 Total Over they've only done that in 3 of their 8 games. overreaction to nebraska giving up all them point last week
Washington -1.5 i'd take utah straight up. washington isn't going to beat them at their own game. BOOKER rides 83 yards on 35 carries @Bdub
USC 67 Over (or maybe Arizona +20) take the over
Oregon State +17.5 nope
Colorado +16 yep
TCU 76 Over i have a feeling this one will be lower scoring, no
Alabama 47.5 Over nope, self-fulfilling SEC DEFENSE prophecy in this one. crazy that lowest point total LSU has allowed is 19, doe.
indiana +8 over iowa is a no-brainer to me
take aTm -8.5 over barn
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
@Brick
Thanks.
My thoughts on WVU are actually based on their defense: it's pretty solid for a team in that league. Then again, TTU is so incompetent on defense that WVU could hang 50 by themselves and threaten that number. Thinking I'll just pass now TBH.
TCU is another one I'm not sure on. Everytime I see @bjc blow OSU's D I think under until I remember that this is the Big 12: the fact that defenses in that league are considered good if they hold you under 40 is gayer than aids. TCU's offense has been really good in their big games this year.
I don't think I'm overreacting to Nebraska: they're statistically one of the worst passing D's in the country. Not one of my favorites here though so I'll probably back off.
Good point about Alabama. I looked at the Over because the total dropped quite a bit this week and I don't trust LSU's defense: Kevin Steele's due for a game where they get scorched.
I like the matchup for Wazzu against ASU: they throw it well and should get a few big plays when the Devils bust a couple coverages. Meanwhile Bercovici isn't good enough to exploit their weakness on defense: the secondary. Only thing I worry about is their psyche.
No one else will agree with me on Wisconsin, but that's OK. I've watched a few of their games this year: the defense has been awesome outside of the Alabama game (where they got out athleted) while the offense has struggled generating big plays. Really think Clement gives them that home run hitter who can get them a couple of easy scoring drives due to long runs.
Thanks.
My thoughts on WVU are actually based on their defense: it's pretty solid for a team in that league. Then again, TTU is so incompetent on defense that WVU could hang 50 by themselves and threaten that number. Thinking I'll just pass now TBH.
TCU is another one I'm not sure on. Everytime I see @bjc blow OSU's D I think under until I remember that this is the Big 12: the fact that defenses in that league are considered good if they hold you under 40 is gayer than aids. TCU's offense has been really good in their big games this year.
I don't think I'm overreacting to Nebraska: they're statistically one of the worst passing D's in the country. Not one of my favorites here though so I'll probably back off.
Good point about Alabama. I looked at the Over because the total dropped quite a bit this week and I don't trust LSU's defense: Kevin Steele's due for a game where they get scorched.
I like the matchup for Wazzu against ASU: they throw it well and should get a few big plays when the Devils bust a couple coverages. Meanwhile Bercovici isn't good enough to exploit their weakness on defense: the secondary. Only thing I worry about is their psyche.
No one else will agree with me on Wisconsin, but that's OK. I've watched a few of their games this year: the defense has been awesome outside of the Alabama game (where they got out athleted) while the offense has struggled generating big plays. Really think Clement gives them that home run hitter who can get them a couple of easy scoring drives due to long runs.
Yes on WVU. Howard is awful and won't do enough to score on TTU as bad as they are. Bet the score will be something like 45-21, which would leave you more than safe.
Yes on Wisconsin, because of the reason you gave. In B1G play, Wisconsin is 4th in total offense, 1st in total defense, and 1st in scoring defense. Maryland is 13th, 9th, and 12th in those categories. Plus 12th in scoring offense.
Take over on Cal. Agree with Brick that it's a tossup. Would probably take Oregon if I had to, since it's at Autzen and Cal has looked like shit in conference play.
Yes on Kentucky.
(Probably) Yes on Wazzu. Judging from the year thus far, their psyche should be okay. Came back against Oregon in the 4th, rolled against OSU like they should've, put Zona away when they were losing momentum, stuck with Furd the whole game. Only thing I'm worried about is Falk vs. the blitz, which ASU obviously likes to bring. He has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. But I don't think that'll be a big enough factor for ASU on the road.
Yes on Washington, they're improving every week I think.
Would probably avoid the Oregon State/UCLA game. I know I told you to keep an eye out, but I don't have a good feeling on it. Colorado was a much more solid pick.
Don't know enough about the other matchups to really comment. That A&M line looks good though from the little I've seen of either team, like Brick said.
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Rutgers Mike
Dr. Sad
What's the Rutgers over/under, because Rutgers top 2 WRs are both questionable.
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Like 12 or 13 I think.
More than likely will play that under instead of the overall one: while I don't trust Michigan's offense they still could put up 40+ and threaten that total by themselves.
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Take the under on Rutgers - Michigan. That's a 42-10 scoreline to get the over, and that's not happening. Michigan doesn't have the offense to run it up, and I think they'll pull Rudock as early as they can because he got hurt last game. I think it ends up about a 35-3 game or something like that.
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Taking SMU +7 1st half tonight. They've started well/scored points in the 1st half of most of their games while Temple has been a slow starting team. Also figure that the Owls will have a tough time early on with it being a short week road game after that gut punch against Notre Dame.
@Brick and @bruin228: I've been leading the bet against Auburn charge all year, but why do you guys like TAMU in that game so much? I don't think Auburn is very good, but they've been competitive each week since that LSU drubbing.
Also think that Tennessee-South Carolina line is interesting at +17. Probably won't do anything with it, but you're basically relying on the advanced stats guys to conclude that they should be favored by that much.
@Brick and @bruin228: I've been leading the bet against Auburn charge all year, but why do you guys like TAMU in that game so much? I don't think Auburn is very good, but they've been competitive each week since that LSU drubbing.
Also think that Tennessee-South Carolina line is interesting at +17. Probably won't do anything with it, but you're basically relying on the advanced stats guys to conclude that they should be favored by that much.
bjc
Butt Naked Wonda
I'd avoid the OSU-TCU game. I could see them dropping 40+ on us and could see us holding them to 28. Our D is legit bruh.. But the injuries are adding up.
Not every defense in the Big 12 is awful. There's just some damn good QB play in this conference. Lots of good schemes too.
Not every defense in the Big 12 is awful. There's just some damn good QB play in this conference. Lots of good schemes too.
PSUEagle
Well-Known Member
Well, I watched Baylor hang 62 on WVU's supposedly good defense and heard Trent Klatt talk about how they played their hearts out. Or people praising TCU's defense in the 4th quarter of the Baylor game last year before the collapse, even though they had given up 600+ yards to that point. Or Okie Lite giving up 30+ to KSU. Or...
GTFO.
bjc
Butt Naked Wonda
Oh my bad.
The hapless, no talent, 1485955th ranked OSU paper tiger D will hopefully luck into stopping the TCU offense once or twice. Maybe. We could pay the refs again.
And BTW WVU was statistically very good at that point but lost Karl Joseph. No big deal just lost their best defensive player.
Just saying, the Big 12 has some ridiculously good offensive teams with incredible skill players, good QB play, and some good schemes. It's hard to hold people below 20 routinely when you play teams like that. We don't get the benefit of playing Purdue, Rutgers, Indiana, Penn State, Maryland... Christ.
We could hold TCU or Baylor to 17 points (like we did in 2013...unfortunately it seems we're not that good) and you people would claim it's bad defense or luck. Where is Joshua husker to tell me this defense is bad?