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Take It To The Bank - Utopia Betting Thread

PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
Degenerate thread for those of us that like to lay gentlemanly wagers on the outcomes of college football games.

Picks I've made this season each week:

PSU Temple 42.5 U W
Utah State Utah +12 W
La. Tech WKU +2 W
Tulsa New Mexico -4 L
OU Tennessee 64 O L
OU Tennessee -1 W
Tulane Georgia Tech 55 U L
Oregon MSU 67 U W
Missouri Kentucky -2.5 W
Mississippi State Auburn +2.5 W
SDSU PSU O 39.5 W
Bowling Green Purdue +3.5 L
TCU TTU +6 W
Utah Oregon +11 W
Purdue Mich State +21.5 W
Purdue 16.5 TT O W
Alabama UGA +2.5 W
MTSU Vandy -3 L
BSU HAW 56 U W
Oregon Colorado -7 W
Washington USC 58.5 U W
TCU KSU +10 W
WAZZU Oregon +17 W
WAZZU Oregon TT 28 O W
TEN UGA +3 W
FSU Miami -6.5 L
UVA Pitt +10 W
WF BC +10 W
WF BC TT 13 O L
Auburn Kentucky +2 L
UCLA Stanford -6 W
Purdue Wisconsin +24 W
WVU Baylor -20 W
Vandy S. Car -2.5 W
Oregon UW +3 W
Hawaii New Mexico -5 L
OU KSU +4.5 L
Central Michigan Buffalo +6.5 L
Arizona Colorado -7 PUSH
Air Force CSU -3 L
Cal UCLA -3.5 W
Cal UCLA 70 U W
USU SDSU +4 W
Utah USC 60 U L
Utah USC -3.5 W
Kentucky MSU +11.5 L
Mizzou 19 TT U W
Indiana 23 TT O W
UT Bama 51 U W
Mississippi State 35 TT U L
Wazzu Arizona 73 O W
Clemson Miami -5.5 W
Oregon ASU +3 W
Oregon ASU 65 U L
ECU UCONN -5.5 L
Louisville WF 44 U W
Stanford Wazzu +10.5 W
Vandy Houston +10 L
Miami Duke -12 L
Wisconsin/Rutgers 52 U L
Oregon State Utah +28 W
Tulsa SMU 72 O L
Nebraska Purdue +8 W
Missouri 17 TT U W
Temple SMU +7 (1H) W
Duke UNC -7 W
PSU NW -1 L
Rutgers 13 Total UNDER L
Stanford Colorado +16.5 L
ASU Wazzu -2 W
Wisconsin Maryland -10.5 L
Auburn TAMU -7 L
Cal Oregon 74 OVER L
Arizona USC 66.5 OVER W
Utah Washington -2 L
BGSU WMU -3 W
USC Colorado -17 L
Wazzu UCLA -10 L
Oregon Stanford -9 L
Kentucky Vanderbilt 40 UNDER W
Purdue Northwestern 49 UNDER W
Georgia Auburn 55 UNDER W
Texas WVU 53 UNDER L
OU Baylor -2.5 L
Toledo BGSU -7 L
Purdue Iowa +23 W
Iowa State KSU -4 L
Michigan PSU +3 L
Baylor Oklahoma State -2 W
Cal Stanford -9.5 W
Tennessee Missouri -6.5 W
Oklahoma 40 Total OVER L
Arizona ASU 68.5 OVER W
TAMU Vandy 42 UNDER W
Washington Oregon State 49 UNDER L
BGSU Ball State -22.5 W
Texas Tech Texas PK W
Washington State Washington 53 UNDER L
Iowa Nebraska 58 OVER L
Vanderbilt Tennessee 42 UNDER L
FSU UF 45 UNDER W
Notre Dame Stanford -3 L
PSU MSU 44 UNDER L
Colorado Utah 49 UNDER W
UGA GT 49 UNDER W
ASU Cal 68.5 OVER W
Florida Alabama -17 L
UNC Clemson 67 OVER W
Michigan State Iowa 48.5 OVER L
Temple Houston -4 W
Temple Houston Total (30) OVER L
Arizona New Mexico 63 OVER W
BYU Utah +3 L
Arkansas State Louisiana Tech -2 W
Ga. Southern Bowling Green 63 OVER W
Southern Miss Washington 52 OVER W
Miami Wazzu -2 W
Nebraska UCLA -6 L
Pittsburgh Navy 52 OVER W
TTU LSU -7 W
NCSU Miss ST 60 OVER W
Tennessee Northwestern -9.5 W
Notre Dame Ohio State 57 OVER W
Iowa Stanford -6 W
Ole Miss Okie State 71 OVER L
PSU UGA -6 W
PSU UGA 44 UNDER W
Oregon TCU -6.5 L
Alabama Clemson -6.5 L

77-51-1 on the year. FYI TT means Team Total.

Would post my NFL picks if anyone wants them, but I'm not that good: a little over .500 on the year:laughing:

@GatorTD
@Bdub
@Brick
@Travis7401
@bruin
 
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PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
Looking over a few of the early lines so far, two plays stand out:

Colorado +3 vs. Oregon State. The Buffs aren't great, but they've been competitive in every game while Oregon State has been truly awful despite employing Utopia favorite Dave Baldwin as OC.

I'd also jump on Clemson -5.5 against Miami: would be shocked if the 'Canes kept it within two TD's.
 
Brick

Brick

Well-Known Member
Road dogs this week.

Indiana +17 @ Michigan State: MSU has only beaten one opponent by more than 14 points all season, and that team was Central Michigan, by 20. Indiana is going to put some points up on MSU's defense. Don't get this one at all.

Kentucky +11 @ Mississippi State: Kentucky has been competitive in every game this year. MSU's offense has scored fewer than 20 points in every game against SEC teams. Their record is inflated by 4 games against bad OOC opponents.
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
@Brick

Like that IU call now that I've seen that line. Also like the UK play as well.

It looks like UCLA is already down to -4: if it goes much lower I'll think about playing them. They've struggled the last couple weeks, but now they get to play the underdog/disrespect card a little bit and they're at home with some of their defensive guys coming back.

Couple other SEC favorites I'm going to do a little research on: Alabama -14 and Mizzou -2.

Think people are sleeping on how good this Alabama team is: it took like six turnovers and one of the flukiest catches ever for them to barely lose to Ole Miss. The defense looks like it's the best Saban's had since the 2012 team at least, and the offense still has play makers. Tennessee's offense with Debord calling the shots (lots of specific tells/tendencies based on D&D and formation) is one I could see them chewing up.

Mizzou's offense sucks, but they're playing Vandy: that line should be a few points higher IMO.
 
bruin

bruin

Well-Known Member
PSUEagle said:
It looks like UCLA is already down to -4: if it goes much lower I'll think about playing them. They've struggled the last couple weeks, but now they get to play the underdog/disrespect card a little bit and they're at home with some of their defensive guys coming back.
Click to expand...

was coming here to ask you bout this.

Bruins a little beat up on the OL with McDermott and Redmond going out against Stanford. They both suited up at practice today and got treatment. Keep an eye on McDermott. If he doesn't go, RS Frosh Kolton Miller steps in and he struggled mightily against Stanford. (Tough spot for him tho)

Could see the Bruins juggle OL and move Benenoch to LT.

The last two years we've dropped mid October games and bounced back pretty good (2013 at Stan, at Ore) (2014 Utah and Ore)
 
whiteyc_77

whiteyc_77

The Skeleton Debator
Mod Alumni
Went 11-4 on Saturday, with one of those picks being MSU on the money line. Easily the best day of action I've had in a while. Also, narrowly missed a 15 team ML parlay if Ball State can just win a home game against Georgia State as a 2 TD favorite. Eff you Jason Whitlock and @Bucksin04.

Also, if you ever need an easy win, always take the under on any PSU game. In the James Franklin era, the Under has hit 15 out of 20 times, with one of those coming only because of overtime (2014 PSU-anOSU).

-YTC
 
Bucksin04

Bucksin04

Well-Known Member
whiteyc_77 said:
Went 11-4 on Saturday, with one of those picks being MSU on the money line. Easily the best day of action I've had in a while. Also, narrowly missed a 15 team ML parlay if Ball State can just win a home game against Georgia State as a 2 TD favorite. Eff you Jason Whitlock and @Bucksin04.

Also, if you ever need an easy win, always take the under on any PSU game. In the James Franklin era, the Under has hit 15 out of 20 times, with one of those coming only because of overtime (2014 PSU-anOSU).

-YTC
Click to expand...

Ball State has been really, really bad since Hoke left. I could've talked you out of that one.
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
@bruin

Right now UCLA is -3.5: was at least a couple points higher to start. Going to wait and see if it goes any lower, but if not I'll buy the 1/2 point. Honestly think they're undervalued at this point: this is a game I'd expect them to win and play well in after how the last few weeks went for them.

@whiteyc_77

Welcome: good to have you aboard.

I'm not a trends guy for the most part, but that's interesting about Penn State unders. Will probably play it if it isn't ridiculously low.

Also thinking about taking PSU straight up. Right now it's -7.5: hoping it gets to -6.5 and I'll jump. I like that the game is "neutral" (Read: mostly PSU fans) in Baltimore along with Maryland's defense: they're Indiana level bad, and PSU unsurprisingly looked competent on offense against them. Think something similar plays out here where the defense mostly shuts down Maryland while Barkley runs well against the Terps' suspect run D.

EDIT: line's at -6 now: almost certainly playing this game now.
 
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whiteyc_77

whiteyc_77

The Skeleton Debator
Mod Alumni
Unfortunately, my book doesn't give any numbers for Saturday's games until Tuesday morning. I do have a line for App St/Ga Southern, and I'm liking App State - 5.

-YTC
 
GatorTD

GatorTD

Male
Mod Alumni
ThatPSU line is sketchy as all hell. I'd avoid that one. Lines don't magically drop 2 points when the percentages are even (52/48 in MDs favor). There's something fishy.
 
DeadMan

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Brick said:
Indiana +17 @ Michigan State: MSU has only beaten one opponent by more than 14 points all season, and that team was Central Michigan, by 20. Indiana is going to put some points up on MSU's defense. Don't get this one at all.
Click to expand...

I agree with you, if Sudfeld plays. If he doesn't, Indiana is awful. He was back against Rutgers and Indiana's offense was good. But look at what they did against Penn State. And I think they're going to their third stringer if he gets hurt, who is somehow worse than Diamont. Which is saying something. It's a good line if Sudfeld plays, but you have to keep an eye on that.
 
Travis7401

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
I'll be impressed when one of you actually makes a living doing this. Until then ur just a bunch of spergers.
 
CJ_24

CJ_24

Well-Known Member
Travis7401 said:
I'll be impressed when one of you actually makes a living doing this. Until then ur just a bunch of spergers.
Click to expand...

They'd have to be this guy:

880.jpg
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
@Bdub
@GatorTD

Thoughts on playing the under (59) in the Utah game? I'm not a huge trends guy, but the only really high scoring game in the series (2012) came as a direct result of USC spotting the Utes 14 pts off early turnovers. Looking at Brock's favorite website both teams are pretty mediocre in RZ TD % in conference play, USC especially. Similarly, both are decent to good (Utah) at RZ defense. Game feels like a 23-20 type slugfest IMO.

Also, lol at the O/U of the Mizzou game (35). The thing is Vandy has quietly put together a really solid defense with Mason taking it over: they held WKU's high powered crew to 14, Ole Miss to 26 (some of which were off turnovers), and even UGA who only put up 14 "real" points (two return TD's and a short field led to 17 more to inflate their total). Also #1 in RZ defense in conference play. Even though this under is absurdly low I may play it anyway for shits and giggles. Could see this game being like that Wake-BC 3-0 cripple fight a couple weeks ago.
 
Bdub

Bdub

Well-Known Member
I would take the under on the Utah game all day. If they go over it will mean it was a very long day for Utah.
 
Brick

Brick

Well-Known Member
Play under in the Utah game, yes. That is absurd. Bdub is spot on though. If it's the over, USC is tapping that ass.
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
Brick said:
Still really liking the Indiana and Kentucky lines.
Click to expand...

I am @DeadMan with the IU game: won't know until I know about Sudfeld. If it's Diamont or his backup at QB I'll probably lay off but would actually pick Sparty to cover if you put a gun to my head.

Kentucky O/U is 55.5 and climbing: will probably go under there in addition to the spread. Looking at some stats and MSU's played really good red zone and overall defense in conference play: think that game is played in the 40's.

BTW, you and @Bdub are right about Cal's defense: they're not that bad. Actually, both Cal and UCLA are in the Top 4 in opposing QB rating: strongly thinking about playing the under (67.5 and climbing) in addition to UCLA -3 (hoping to get it at -2.5).
 
Skeeter

Skeeter

Uber felon
JT named QB for Rutgers game. I think OSU undervalued at 21. see if it changes. Over a good play as well.
 
Bdub

Bdub

Well-Known Member
I don't know about UCLA -3, right now Cal is the better team. Also with all the injuries on UCLAs defense it should play right into Cals strength, throwing the ball a lot.
 
Brick

Brick

Well-Known Member
Would not touch UCLA and Cal. Are you just taking it for the action on a weekday? Wouldn't be surprised by any result in that game.
 
whiteyc_77

whiteyc_77

The Skeleton Debator
Mod Alumni
Today, I'm on:

Anderlecht/Tottenham Hotspur - Draw +235
App State -5
Temple/ECU over 48

-YTC
 
GatorTD

GatorTD

Male
Mod Alumni
Im not sure if Ill actually play it but UCLA -4 is the pick. Not taking a public backed underdog when the line shifts in the way of the favorite.
 
Brick

Brick

Well-Known Member
You're all stupid. Don't play it. Confirmation bias gon come hard though later from one of you.
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
Brick said:
You're all stupid. Don't play it. Confirmation bias gon come hard though later from one of you.
Click to expand...

Sup

Seriously though, why did you have a hard time seeing tonight coming? I mean you nailed them losing to ASU a few weeks ago: the other side of their WTF losses is that they usually play well once people start writing them off. Cal's defense struggles against the run (ask your boy Booker): predictably Perkins and the OL had their way.

Matchup wise I thought this was a good game for them: the kind of offenses they've usually struggled against are physical. Cal has no run game and honestly hasn't been quite as dominant on offense this year as people think (hence my under play). UCLA is #1 in passer rating allowed in conference play: people were forgetting that it took Hogan going into God mode on 3rd down last game to make that a blowout.
 
PSUEagle

PSUEagle

Well-Known Member
Any thoughts on KSU +7 against Texas? To me line seems like a crazy overreaction based on last week, to me. Texas played well against OU, but their offense still has issues.

Similar thought with Syracuse +7 vs Pittsburgh. Pitt's 5-1, but they've scraped by in a few of their games against similarly mediocre competition. Feel like this line should be at least five points lower TBH.
 
GatorTD

GatorTD

Male
Mod Alumni
PSUEagle said:
Any thoughts on KSU +7 against Texas? To me line seems like a crazy overreaction based on last week, to me. Texas played well against OU, but their offense still has issues.

Similar thought with Syracuse +7 vs Pittsburgh. Pitt's 5-1, but they've scraped by in a few of their games against similarly mediocre competition. Feel like this line should be at least five points lower TBH.
Click to expand...
Opened at Texas -4 FYI.
 
Bdub

Bdub

Well-Known Member
Thoughts on Utah? I don't normally bet on my team but it's a very interesting line.
 
Bdub

Bdub

Well-Known Member
I hope their wrong but Utah going to lose at some point, might as well be this week as any.
 
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