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Conference Championship Week presented by Mobb Deep

Rutgers Mike

Dr. Sad
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Hachiko

The Akita on Utopia
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I'll allow it here but not on my status updates. Ta, isegeum.
 

Brick

Well-Known Member
i don't get why people think the playoff thing is so complicated right now. there are 4 teams with one loss or fewer right now. if they win, all four should be in:

alabama
ohio state
washington
clemson

imo western michigan should be in (going undefeated is extremely rare and hard, and teams should be rewarded for it regardless of conference), but that isn't happening.

none of the 2 loss teams has a compelling enough argument to move above any of those in my opinion. and if you come with WELL THE CRITERIA TEH COMMITTEE HAS ESTABLISHED bullshit, gtfo.

to me the team people should be picking on (if anyone) is clemson, to me. they had many close calls this year and looked flat-out unimpressive a number of times. however, they'll get a pass because of last year's team.

i don't want to hear any complaining about washington's ooc schedule, especially. if they were named usc, they'd be a stone cold lock with a win on friday. washington trounced most of their opponents this year and looked very dominant doing so. michigan did about the same, but lost one of their close games against a very average opponent (iowa). uw outscored opponents 44.8-17.8, and michigan 41.0-12.5. washington is #8 in defensive YPP and #5 in offensive YPP.

penn state: #31 O, #12 D
wisconsin: #97 O, #10 D

i don't see how wisconsin or penn state are even in the discussion at the moment, frankly. i think if people are being objective, no one believes they are among the four best teams in the country, or have looked especially dominant at any point this season. especially not enough to put them above teams that have fewer losses. and that's the argument you have to make.
 
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CJ_24

Well-Known Member
I'll bite, because all of these arguments are stupid anyway. In my view, as I have stated previously, @Brick's argument, as does everyone else's in these shenanigans, boils down to the ever-so-correct EYE TEST. case in point:

to me the team people should be picking on (if anyone) is clemson, to me. they had many close calls this year and looked flat-out unimpressive a number of times

I do not know what that means. There is no criteria. Whoever WE think looks good are the teams that get the nod.

--

It is a fair argument that if Wisconsin wins they should not go because they lost head-to-head with Ohio State and they have one more loss than Ohio State does. That is fair. That said, Wisconsin would be the b1g champion, and we can run in circles making asinine arguments in this popularity contest over who looked better than who versus different opponents and at different times. How close the game was, how close another game was, so and and so forth. Then you get in to who does what better, who has more talent, and all of these other subjective arguments that plebs will bicker over ad nauseam and for which there is never a smoking gun argument. You know all the arguments, I am certain each of us has engaged in them in one form or another at some point in our lives.

I will grant that Brick wants to be consistent by advocating for Western Michigan, so I think he is asserting a fairly objective criteria of wins or losses, and on that basis the aforementioned argument in favor of Ohio State over Wisconsin is a winning one. But that begs the question of what do you do if Penn State wins? Does Ohio's one loss trump Penn State's two losses, even though Ohio State lost to Penn State?

Which brings me to this:

i think if people are being objective, no one believes they are among the four best teams in the country

To me, this is a non-sequitur, to me. In order for there to be an objective discussion over who are the four best teams in the country, you need objective criteria. And that is where the tower of babel crumbles, because there are no objective criterion in college footbaw. Ohio is better, they played a tougher schedule. How do we know? Because they played Oklahoma. How do we know Oklahoma is good? Because they're ranked high. Why are they ranked high? Because they are good. wat. All of these discussions inevitably boil down to this syllogism, it is this syllogism that keeps the SEC in the drivers seat. And it makes no logical sense if you really break it down.

In my view, since we've eschewed any real objective criteria and are dressing up subjective criteria in the form of objective criteria, Ohio State will get in over Wisconsin because people think Ohio State is better, because they are Ohio State. Do I think Ohio State is better? Yes. Do I know Ohio State is better? No. Do I know who the best four teams in the country are? No. And if you want to put a team from the b1g in to the playoff, is there some objective criteria that justifies placing a team other than the b1g champ in the playoff?
 
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whiteyc_77

The Skeleton Debator
Mod Alumni
i don't get why people think the playoff thing is so complicated right now. there are 4 teams with one loss or fewer right now. if they win, all four should be in:

alabama
ohio state
washington
clemson

imo western michigan should be in (going undefeated is extremely rare and hard, and teams should be rewarded for it regardless of conference), but that isn't happening.

none of the 2 loss teams has a compelling enough argument to move above any of those in my opinion. and if you come with WELL THE CRITERIA TEH COMMITTEE HAS ESTABLISHED bullshit, gtfo.

to me the team people should be picking on (if anyone) is clemson, to me. they had many close calls this year and looked flat-out unimpressive a number of times. however, they'll get a pass because of last year's team.

i don't want to hear any complaining about washington's ooc schedule, especially. if they were named usc, they'd be a stone cold lock with a win on friday. washington trounced most of their opponents this year and looked very dominant doing so. michigan did about the same, but lost one of their close games against a very average opponent (iowa). uw outscored opponents 44.8-17.8, and michigan 41.0-12.5. washington is #8 in defensive YPP and #5 in offensive YPP.

penn state: #31 O, #12 D
wisconsin: #97 O, #10 D

i don't see how wisconsin or penn state are even in the discussion at the moment, frankly. i think if people are being objective, no one believes they are among the four best teams in the country, or have looked especially dominant at any point this season. especially not enough to put them above teams that have fewer losses. and that's the argument you have to make.

anOSU
Wins against S&P+ numbers 2, 10, 13, 40 and 50
Loss to #11

PSU
Wins against S&P+ numbers 3, 10 (presumed for the purposes of this discussion), 18, 22 and 48
Loss to #2 and #26

Are those resumes really that far apart?
  • YPP is nice, but few offenses have been more explosive than PSU. Only 6 teams are top 10 nationally in 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays from scrimmage: Western Kentucky, Louisville, Oklahoma, South Florida, Alabama and...you guessed it - Penn State
  • Speaking of YPP, if you look at conference games (removing the gawdawful non-con schedule that Washington had) they clock in at #24 in Defensive YPP. PSU comes in at #9.
  • Offensive YPP against conference foes? Washington is still very, very strong at #5. PSU moves up to #26, at the same YPP as KKKlimpson.
  • 2nd in the nation in TFL and 12th in sacks
  • Interesting you bring up KKKlimpson when it comes to close calls and looking flat out unimpressive. KKKlimpson had 6 games decided by one score (5-1 in those games). anOSU had 5 such games (4-1 in those games). Unimpressive? KKKlimpson had a better record against the spread than anOSU also.
  • "i don't want to hear any complaining about washington's ooc schedule, especially" PSU gets dinged for having 2 losses, despite one of those being on the road to the S&P+ (and fringe top 25) #26 team. Why should Washington get a pass for playing a creampuff OOC, while others get dinged for losing at a significantly more difficult OOC opponent on the road?
  • Fairly certain that most would agree that the B1G East is the toughest division in football this year. See if you can figure out who won the tiebreaker and gets to represent that division in their conference shampship game?
-YTC
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
In my view, since we've eschewed any real objective criteria and are dressing up subjective criteria in the form of objective criteria, Ohio State will get in over Wisconsin because people think Ohio State is better, because they are Ohio State. Do I think Ohio State is better? Yes. Do I know Ohio State is better? No. Do I know who the best four teams in the country are? No. And if you want to put a team from the b1g in to the playoff, is there some objective criteria that justifies placing a team other than the b1g champ in the playoff?

I know Ohio State is better than Wisconsin, because they beat Wisconsin. In Madison. Christ.
 

CJ_24

Well-Known Member
The way I view it, I am advocating for a fairly bright-line rule approach that places the teams on relatively equal footing. (While acknowledging that there is a great deal of subjectivity in deciding which conferences deserve the bid. But that is another discussion.)

The problem I have with the current approach is that, again, it boils down to the way-to-subjective EYE TEST. You can pick out whichever stats you want to support your position, but ultimately people are starting from their conclusion of "I think team X is one of the four best teams in the nation," and working back to the premise by picking out stats/observations that support their conclusion. The EYE TEST will always lead you to the conclusion you want. That is not a test at all, and it leads me to the point I made in the other thread--if that's the criteria you're using, then if you're not one of the 10-12 premier programs you need not even apply for the 'shampship because you do not fucking matter.
 

CJ_24

Well-Known Member
I know Ohio State is better than Wisconsin, because they beat Wisconsin. In Madison. Christ.

That is not necessarily so. If one wanted to, they could make the arguments that "if X had not happened," or "if player Y had not been hurt," so on and so forth. It was an overtime game, which essentially makes it a toss up. I get that Wisconsin lost and in many respects that is the end of the matter, but at the same time arguments can be made if you are taking a more holistic view of the season. I think Herbstreit said Ohio State was a better team than Penn State immediately after Ohio State lost to Penn State. (Then by your logic, is PSU better than OSU? Or is it mitigated by OSU having one fewer loss? Then we are back to running the same circles to determine who had the tougher schedule.) You see how these things go. My point is merely that if you are trying to determine who gets into a playoff based on the entire season, what criteria is more objectively representative, winning the conference, winning a game, or winning a popularity contest?
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
That is not necessarily so. If one wanted to, they could make the arguments that "if X had not happened," or "if player Y had not been hurt," so on and so forth. It was an overtime game, which essentially makes it a toss up. I get that Wisconsin lost and in many respects that is the end of the matter, but at the same time arguments can be made if you are taking a more holistic view of the season. I think Herbstreit said Ohio State was a better team than Penn State immediately after Ohio State lost to Penn State. (Then by your logic, is PSU better than OSU? Or is it mitigated by OSU having one fewer loss? Then we are back to running the same circles to determine who had the tougher schedule.) You see how these things go. My point is merely that if you are trying to determine who gets into a playoff based on the entire season, what criteria is more objectively representative, winning the conference, winning a game, or winning a popularity contest?

Only valid point in there is about OSU vs. PSU.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
By the way, I do think that Penn State gets in over OSU if they beat Wisconsin. I'm guess the committee wants every regular season game to matter, and beating a top ten team on a neutral site will probably push them over the edge. Only team that I think is safe right now is Bama. Clemson and Washington are safe, too, if they win.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Me likey this train of thought.

-YTC

On the other hand, if you want every game to matter, Penn State was ass in the first 5 (or 4.75, I guess) games of the year, so how does that play in? Then they play a bunch of mediocre teams and manage a fluke win against the only good team on their schedule after that.
 

whiteyc_77

The Skeleton Debator
Mod Alumni
On the other hand, if you want every game to matter, Penn State was ass in the first 5 (or 4.75, I guess) games of the year, so how does that play in? Then they play a bunch of mediocre teams and manage a fluke win against the only good team on their schedule after that.

Couldn't agree more. PSU getting in would prove how stupid this playoff is. anOSU getting in ahead of PSU would prove how even stupider this playoff is.

PSU gets in = @Hachiko

anOSU getting in over PSU = @JAR201166

-YTC
 

Brick

Well-Known Member
That was who I was going after, @Wooly. This would be a good podcast debate. Here's why I have tOSU above PSU @whiteyc_77 :
YPP is nice, but few offenses have been more explosive than PSU. Only 6 teams are top 10 nationally in 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays from scrimmage: Western Kentucky, Louisville, Oklahoma, South Florida, Alabama and...you guessed it - Penn State
That's very cherry-picked. I'd guess total YPP is much more correlated with W/L and quality of offense than explosive plays.
Speaking of YPP, if you look at conference games (removing the gawdawful non-con schedule that Washington had) they clock in at #24 in Defensive YPP. PSU comes in at #9.
Yes, playing in the B1G definitely helped that. Total offenses faced in conference below.

PSU/UW
tOSU #24/ California #11
Michigan #49/ Wazzu #17
Indiana #53/ Oregon #19
Michigan State #75/ USC #30
Purdue #80/ Utah #58
Maryland #93/ Arizona #66
Minnesota #106/ Arizona State #81
Iowa #119/ Oregon State #105
Rutgers #128/ Stanford #101

Offensive YPP against conference foes? Washington is still very, very strong at #5. PSU moves up to #26, at the same YPP as KKKlimpson.
Tennessee is two spots up, but your point stands.
2nd in the nation in TFL and 12th in sacks
This is good, but also #103 in TFL allowed and #51 in sacks allowed.
Interesting you bring up KKKlimpson when it comes to close calls and looking flat out unimpressive. KKKlimpson had 6 games decided by one score (5-1 in those games). anOSU had 5 such games (4-1 in those games). Unimpressive? KKKlimpson had a better record against the spread than anOSU also.
Fair enough. I'm probably biased because I watched more Clemson than Ohio State this year (can't do the lower half of B1G games, it's amazing that the ACC is more entertaining now). The NC State game sticks out in my mind, as that's one they really should have lost with a missed chip shot at the last second.
"i don't want to hear any complaining about washington's ooc schedule, especially" PSU gets dinged for having 2 losses, despite one of those being on the road to the S&P+ (and fringe top 25) #26 team. Why should Washington get a pass for playing a creampuff OOC, while others get dinged for losing at a significantly more difficult OOC opponent on the road?
We're really comparing the motive of the schools to schedule Pitt and Rutgers here. Washington scheduled the Rutgers series in 2014. Rutgers went 8-4 that year with a win at Washington State and had very good success (two 9 win seasons) in the early part of the decade. The Pitt series was scheduled in 2011, and they were about the same as Rutgers: sporadic success but a decent reputation. They aren't getting a "pass" for anything. They didn't know Rutgers was going to be bad, like Penn State had no idea Pitt would be decent. It's not Washington's fault Rutgers was bad. The committee is probably going to stand firm on this platform of you should schedule difficult teams, which I like, but Washington did not schedule 3 FBS schools. To me it's perfectly reasonable for a team with three non-conference games to schedule 2 warm-ups and an FBS opponent.

The schedule should be looked at as a whole. There is a laser focus on the RULES IS RULES OOC thing. Why isn't anyone talking about how Washington, after playing Colorado, will have played every team in the Pac-12 with a winning record? Penn State ducked Nebraska and Northwestern (6-3 and 5-4) and got to play Michigan State, Rutgers, and Purdue who combined for one conference win. Washington only missed 2-7 UCLA in conference play. That is pretty significant in my opinion and makes up for whatever their schedule lacked with Rutgers vs Pitt. Why isn't that being discussed?

Hey, Idaho is 7-4!!!!!!

Fairly certain that most would agree that the B1G East is the toughest division in football this year. See if you can figure out who won the tiebreaker and gets to represent that division in their conference shampship game?
That's the narrative but Maryland, Michigan State, and Rutgers are very bad teams. Indiana lost to Wake OOC and the best team they beat all year was Maryland. It's a three team division. Also Ohio State missed Iowa (who beat Michigan), and Penn State/Michigan missed Nebraska.

Again, if Penn State beat Pitt I'd put them in in a heartbeat over Ohio State. The playoff is for a national championship. Ohio State crushed top ten Oklahoma.

1. Losses: Michigan beat Penn State 49-10 and PSU was outgained 515 (season high in yards for Michigan) to 191 (season low 191 yards for Penn State). A thorough beating. I don't think a team that gets beaten that solidly should be in the playoff (felt the same way about tOSU two years ago). Penn State beat Ohio State in pretty fluky fashion. Outgained 413-276 and had a game-winning field goal returned for a touchdown. It was 21-7 in the fourth quarter. PSU lost an evenly played game with Pitt, but they lost. Ohio State struggled against Northwestern and Michigan State but pulled them out.

2. Penn State lost two games. If they're both one loss teams and Penn State beat Ohio State, I'd definitely have PSU over OSU. Penn State lost twice. Head-to-head only matters for the conference championship system, which I don't recognize as a viable way to determine a champion anyway (and you know I've always been consistent on this). This is the national championship, not the Big Ten Championship.
 
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Yankee151

Hot Girl Summer
Who is team 4 if Wisconsin and Colorado win? That seems the situation with the most potential for something weird to happen. I suppose Clemson losing would do something strange as well, but no way the CHOKIES pull it off.

(Assuming other 3 would be Bama Clemson tanOSU)
 

bruin228

Well-Known Member
NCAA Moderator
Would be really close. I think Wiscy would get in, but BUFFS would have the better win if they beat UDub.
 

CJ_24

Well-Known Member
This entire discussion serves only to prove my point--that the decision-making criteria is so arbitrary that it cannot be taken seriously.

Team Z is better because of stats A, B, and C! Team Y is better because they beat Z in week W! But team Y lost to team R in week N! And Team R lost to team S who lost to Team T and team T lost to Team Z in week P! Team Z's schedule is tougher because they scheduled Team U in 2011 when Team U went 8-4! My God, what a stupid system.

If the sole criteria was Ohio beat Wisconsin, and they have a better record, game, set, match. That is fine. And I think in Brick's Western Michigan world, that would be the case. The problem is, and it has to be acknowledged, that in the current system the debate does not stop at that point. It cannot, because there are not enough games to cross-reference from. Since the debate cannot stop at that point, it eventually devolves into the quagmire in the above paragraph. Since it inevitably devolves to that point, that cannot be a valid criteria for determining who goes.

A neutral criteria would be to pick the conference champions, and determine the four conferences based on each conference's overall record. Of course no one would want that because you run the risk of having wisconsin v. western michigan, and ucf v. new mexico in the playoff. And Mah Gawd we cannot have a national shampship unless one of the premier teams in the playoff. A playoff without Alabama, Florida, FSU, Okalahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, USC, LSU, Texas, or Nebraska is untenable! So this is where we are. Where winning the conference does not matter, because the only criteria boils down to EYE TEST. Ohio is better because of stats A, B, and C, and because they beat team X in week W and it does not matter that they also lost to team Z in week Y because we will come up with a confluence of factors that ultimately lead us to the conclusion we want to reach.
 

Yankee151

Hot Girl Summer
I just don't buy that argument. Last year's playoff had Clemson and Michigan State in it. Not exactly storied SEC programs
 

Skeeter

Uber felon
2 b1g teams get in Washington left out due to shitty non con and the PAC12 being hot trash. done deal.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Who is team 4 if Wisconsin and Colorado win? That seems the situation with the most potential for something weird to happen. I suppose Clemson losing would do something strange as well, but no way the CHOKIES pull it off.

(Assuming other 3 would be Bama Clemson tanOSU)

They'd probably put Wisconsin in, but Colorado should be in. Honestly, in that scenario, you could make an argument for Michigan.
 

Hachiko

The Akita on Utopia
not sure if srs
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nevermind, i should prolly just leave it be
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If Washington win this weekend en La Ciudad de Santa Clara de Asis en La Norte, Da Dergs need to be called up to the Colledge Fungbal Plerf. That means...SC to the Rose Bowl! At laaaaaaaaaaast! A chance to wear my SC chaqueta agane in Pasadena on New Year's Day. Anticipacion...intensificada, wwwwww.....
 

Hachiko

The Akita on Utopia
Behold! A preview of #SWACSHAMP16. Winnawinna ======> ObamaBowl Dinna.
Whitey Hopson ain't savin you boys naoughw: #GramFam gon' bring it.
Muhuhuhahahahahaaaaaaaah...
 

Lightningwar

Administrator
This could all be solved by an 8 team playoff with P5 conference champs auto bid unless they are not ranked within the top 15. Fill in the rest with at large.

Anyways I watch the B1G. I don't for a second believe the hype surrounding the conference. This is like the SEC echo chamber of years previous. It got a boost when Wisconsin barely beat a very avg LSU team in a home game at Lambeau. But watching these offenses trog around like they are playing in mud is painful. I think the most iconic vision of the B1G for me this year was Michigan v Wisconsin. A perfectly thrown pass to a RB in the flat that had beat the linebacker went for 2 yards. In any other conference that is big yardage.
 

wolverine318

Well-Known Member
Mod Alumni
They'd probably put Wisconsin in, but Colorado should be in. Honestly, in that scenario, you could make an argument for Michigan.
I think if this happens Mich sneaks in. At that point you have to take a two loss team unless you put Western in. Right now to me it is bama, tOSU, Clem, Wash. Then Mich, PSU, Wisc, Oklahoma, Colorado. I don't think it changes even if PSU wins, unless PSU absolutely destroys Wisconsin. Honestly I can see PUS winning some dull game, Wash losing and PSU still not getting in.
 

GatorTD

Male
Mod Alumni
I'd flip Wiscy and Michigan in ur rankings, but other than that I agree.

Wiscys losses were close enough to give them the boost of the CCG win to vault into the playoffs if Wash or Clemson lose.

Only way PSU hops Michigan is if Wiscy throws the game like they did in 14.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
This could all be solved by an 8 team playoff with P5 conference champs auto bid unless they are not ranked within the top 15. Fill in the rest with at large.

Anyways I watch the B1G. I don't for a second believe the hype surrounding the conference. This is like the SEC echo chamber of years previous. It got a boost when Wisconsin barely beat a very avg LSU team in a home game at Lambeau. But watching these offenses trog around like they are playing in mud is painful. I think the most iconic vision of the B1G for me this year was Michigan v Wisconsin. A perfectly thrown pass to a RB in the flat that had beat the linebacker went for 2 yards. In any other conference that is big yardage.

The Big Ten is utter garbage outside of the top 4. Even Penn State and Wisconsin aren't great, honestly. Wisconsin has no offense, and James Franklin still coaches Penn State. Michigan and OSU are legitimate top 10 teams in my mind, but I'm not sure if either is top 5. Their offenses are too rickety at times because of poor QB and OL play. Against teams like Maryland, that doesn't matter. But against good teams, they need 3 turnovers to score 17 points, for example. I mean, any of them would likely roll through the SEC East, but that's not saying much. I'm not sure they'd all roll through the Pac 12.

But then, besides that, the next best team is probably Nebraska? With Tommy Armstrong at QB? :laughing: Or Northwestern, who lost to Illinois State? Minnesota? All very average teams.
 
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