So, basically how a lot of people feel about Michigan hiring Harbaugh.
I think it would come down to whether Chip would want to go back to the NFL. If he doesn't, Miami is probably a destination for him if he decides to go to Miami. But if he wants to go back to the NFL, then yeah, he'll leave Miami. I don't see Chip as a Todd Graham-type when it comes to college programs. Oregon obviously offers a lot, but it's not like it's a historic power and college football blueblood. Miami probably is that, but it can't offer the support that Oregon has.
For what it's worth, I think transitions with a lot of coaches are really overstated. Kelly runs a run and shoot, zone blocking scheme. I don't know exactly what Miami runs at this point (I'm guessing zone blocking, west coast offense), but I doubt it'd be much of a transition. If Chip could find a QB to run the offense, I'd bet a lot of the other pieces fall into place easily.