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2023 Season: The Week 9 Thread - Lost

jamesnathan

jamesnathan

Resident Mormon
BYU is 4-1 vs Texas all-time. I attended 2 of the wins in Provo and their only loss in my only game at Austin. M'wife and I are going again tomorrow, hoping for a different result. I know it's a long shot, but you never know. But no matter what, I know that BYU will still have a winning record against UT and OU (2-0 all-time) when they both head off to the SEC. So I've got that going for me.

Please do not take my going to the game to mean that I don't like other teams. I'm fine with Florida State, Wisconsin, and many other teams. So just because I didn't say I like a team, please don't start ragging on me that it means I don't like someone else.

Except Utah. Screw them.
 
goblue96

goblue96

Disney and Curling Expert
Rutgers Mike said:
Who’s on the schedule tonight?
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FAU at Charlotte

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Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Jesus Christ how bad is the USC defense… these are Utah’s offensive efficiency numbers from Hythloday’s charting:

In the aggregate, the Utes have below a 44% efficiency rate in their FBS games outside garbage time (157 successes vs 201 failures, given the down & distance), gaining 5.4 adjusted YPP with about 11% of plays achieving explosive yardage.

…

Utah is deeply underwater in passing efficiency on the season at 41% (62 successes vs 90 failures), or 43.5% for Barnes alone, gaining 6.4 adjusted YPA and with 13.5% of passes going for 15+ yards.
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He goes on to shit talk the offensive line and says that the only real bright spots in their offense are their RBs and WRs.

One crazy stat: they only have two completions of 20+ yards on the season? How is that even possible?

Here are the rushing figures for those curious:
This year Utah is below average in designed rushing efficiency at 46% (95 vs 111), with 4.8 adjusted YPC and under 10% of designed rushes gaining 10+ yards. All of those are steep falloffs compared to the 2022 figures – by 13 percentage points in efficiency, 0.7 in yardage, and 5 points in explosiveness.
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Hythloday is always a good read:

www.addictedtoquack.com

Duck Tape: Film Analysis of Utah 2023

A preview of Oregon’s week 9 opponent in Salt Lake City
www.addictedtoquack.com www.addictedtoquack.com
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Bro, Penix was hurting midway through the 3rd in that game. Oregon’s DL won that positional battle despite the loss and you know it.
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Brick said:
it was awful, yes
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Remember how I kept complaining early on that they weren't getting to Ward despite breaking down the OL repeatedly? This is what Hythloday wrote in his review of the game:
Of those, over 48% ended in a sack, scramble, or throwaway, which is the highest single game rate I’ve ever charted. 60% of those broken plays were wins for Oregon’s defense, so from a per-play efficiency perspective the pass rush was getting the getting the job done. However, from a yardage perspective the Cougs were actually more effective when they broke the pocket – including sacks and throwaways — increasing their overall YPP by 0.74 compared to the rest of plays that went as designed. Put another way, 36.5% of all their non-garbage time yards came from just seven broken plays.
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Oregon ended the game with 6 sacks and 7 TFL.
Brick said:
they sucked. johnson being able to give them balance won them the game.
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Oregon was underwater in per play passing defense. That's what cost them the game. They won the positional battle OL vs. DL. That's all I'm saying. Those outside runs were a product of scheme (Oregon's DL doesn't have edge contain responsibilities, the nose covers the A gaps and the DEs take the B gaps to stuff the inside run and spill runs to the outside). UW all but abandoned the run game later on in the game - after running 5 times in their first drive of the second half, in their final 4 drives they ran the ball 4 times for a net gain of 13 yards.
 
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Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
look, to me it seems dumb to say that a team with 25 sacks on the season, which is tied for 5th in the nation, has a bad pass rush. lol.
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
pass rush isn't everything btw. Oregon had 2 DBs out and had some pretty frustrating coverage breakdowns against WSU lol. That doesn't change that the pass rush is really good.
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Brick said:
when you have a horrible dc "coverage breakdowns" are a feature not a bug.
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I mean, when you're missing your best two DBs and your replacements are last years guys... lol.

Let's not move the goalposts though. This entire thing has been about Oregon's pass rush, I believe I've made a solid argument that the pass rush is good, actually. The DL is the strength of the Oregon defense and the pass rush is the strength of their passing defense, which as much as you hate to admit it has been efficient overall for the season by various metrics.
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
Penix makes quick reads and has a quick release. We talked about this being a potential challenge before the game!
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
your argument is basically "Oregon couldn't stop an NFL draft talent at QB with 3 NFL draft receivers to throw to, therefore their defense is bad" and that seems like a strangely high bar for any college football team lol.
 
Mame YO

Mame YO

slings rocks
To answer your question though, you should really consider reading Hythloday's articles!
Oregon blitzed on a little over a quarter of UW’s dropbacks. After studying this offense and this QB within it for as much time as I had, I considered any amount of blitzing to be a mistake. The Ducks were more successful with it than previous UW opponents, getting incompletions on 40% of such plays and limiting YPA to 6.4, down more than two and a half yards compared to non-blitzing plays. However, every one of the completions against the remaining 60% of blitzes were successful plays given the down & distance, almost all for a 1st down or touchdown. So while blitzing slowed the pace of field position advancement, it increased the certainty of the Huskies doing so.
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