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2014 NFL: ALL HAIL THE ACID SHARKS

Southpaw

Fuckface
Utopia Moderator
I disagree with them on 2 evals for the Titans. Derrick Morgan is not a quality starter, well he shouldn't be rated the same as Casey, I'll say that. Also, Schwenke is not poor/gamble. He will be a good player next year I predict. Either way, the Titans aren't going to be drafting any centers or signing and free agent centers.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Head coach Marc Trestman’s first season was a one-sided affair as the offense performed admirably but the defense had holes at every level. The Bears got strong quarterback play from both Jay Cutler and Josh McCown, running back Matt Forte was an every down threat, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery had a breakout second season.
Unfortunately, the other side of the ball was nothing short of a disaster as their veterans showed their age while their young players showed little development. When you add it all up, Chicago’s 8-8 record was a fitting finish for their 2013 season that such contrasting play on both sides of the ball.
Key:
- Player markers are colored per class on a six-step ‘Poor’ to ‘High Quality’ scale based on their overall performance and the league’s elite are marked separately in blue.
- Colored outlines suggest a potential change in class.
- Underlined players will be 30+ years old for the 2014 season.
- Red player names suggest injury risks.
- Click on the image to enlarge.

Lineup-CHI1.png


Roster Notes
- The Bears are strong at the skill positions with wide receiver Brandon Marshall coming in at elite status and Jeffery knocking on the doorstep. Martellus Bennett was a fine addition at tight end, while Matt Forte is among the best running backs in the league. As for Cutler, we’ve been hearing about his plus tools since he was drafted in 2006, but he’s reached “is what he is” status at this point in his career, a solid starter around which the Bears can build their offense.
- The offensive line got a lot of credit for lowering their sack totals from 2012, but there was still plenty of pressure seeping through. Matt Slauson was the best of the bunch while Kyle Long showed quite a bit of promise in his rookie season. The biggest concerns will be at right tackle where Jordan Mills struggled throughout his rookie season and center where Roberto Garza hits free agency with Taylor Boggs is next in line despite never playing an NFL snap.
- The defensive side of the ball is a sea of red and unknowns. Shea McClellin has never lived up to his first round status while Chris Conte paired with free agent Major Wright to form one of the league’s worst safety duos. Defensive tackle is a huge position of need with Henry Melton and Landon Cohen hitting free agency leaving an adequate Stephen Paea and Tracy Robertson’s one snap of NFL experience.
- Chicago will lean heavily on linebackers Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene who both struggled during their rookie campaigns. Like most of their defensive teammates, both players struggled mightily in the running game.
2014 Cap Situation
While the Bears’ cap situation is not ideal, they’re a couple of free agent releases away from clearing up some room. They currently have a little over $5 million of cap space according tooverthecap.com, putting them near the bottom of the league in available resources.
Potential Casualties
Some serious decisions have to be made on good veteran players, starting with DE Julius Peppers. The Bears would save almost $11 million by cutting Peppers who is coming off a-4.4 season and is heading into his 13th year in the league. Another option could be Lance Briggs who would provide nearly $6 million of relief, but cutting one of the only reliable players on defense is certainly a risk. Also keep an eye on the Bears moving on from RB Michael Bush and WR Earl Bennett who would offer even more cap flexibility while allowing for the youth movement to continue ton offense.
Opportunities from the Roster
WR Marquess Wilson could make a run at that No. 3 wide receiver spot after some rookie year flashes. He was an intriguing prospect coming out of Washington State. There weren’t many positives on the defensive side of the ball, but DE Zach Minter had a nice preseason that just didn’t translate into his 27 regular season snaps. Fellow defensive end Cornelius Washington only saw the field for 10 snaps after being drafted in the sixth round, but he’ll be expected to make a serious push for more playing time in 2014.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Our tour through the NFL’s current rosters heads to Pittsburgh as we assess the strength of a Steelers’ roster that missed the playoffs for a second straight season. That marked the first time the Steelers have missed consecutive post seasons for the first time since missing three straight from 1998 to 2000.
In spite of missing the playoffs the Steelers came back strong after a very slow start to the 2013 season and have a lot of good pieces in place going into the 2014 league year. Unrestricted free agency only takes away a couple of contributors from the Steelers’ 2013 roster leaving few startling holes and what looks like a solid base for a strong rebound this fall.
Unlike other franchises around the league (and within their own division) the Steelers are forged on stability which Mike Tomlin and his staff will hope to capitalize on and capture the momentum that nearly gave them the most unlikely of playoff bids in January after an 0-4 start in September.
Key:
- Player markers are colored per class on a six-step ‘Poor’ to ‘High Quality’ scale based on their overall performance and the league’s elite are marked separately in blue.
- Colored outlines suggest a potential change in class.
- Underlined players will be 30+ years old for the 2014 season.
- Red player names suggest injury risks.
- Click on the image to enlarge.

Lineup-PIT.png


Roster Notes
Without much by way of gray (unknowns) or orange (subpar starters) on this chart Pittsburgh find themselves with a reasonably talented roster that with the right investment could see the Steelers elevate themselves back towards the top of the AFC North at the very least in 2014. Led by the ever excellent Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers also have quality in some of the key spots that has ensured that even through their “struggles” missing the playoffs in two straight seasons they have never bottomed out.
If there is one area of concern it is an aging defense where the young players aren’t quite pushing through to spark a new generation just yet. The first sign of that new generation is Cameron Heyward who finally got his chance to play in a more expanded role in 2013 and showed signs to suggest that he is ready to take another step forwards in 2014.
The secondary will be an area of pressing concern for Pittsburgh this off-season where Ike Taylor continued his decline and with the loss of Keenan Lewis a year ago they look short of quality young corners to push through and elevate this group to former glories. Troy Polamalu’s position as the leader of this secondary and defense seems assured for another season after a largely strong 2013 campaign. That said there were still worrying displays (-4.7 at New England, -5.0 vs Detroit) that raised questions over whether a decline could be just around the corner.
On offense Le’Veon Bell only earns the adequate starter grade for now but he is certainly capable of making that jump higher. In his rookie season there were sparks and consistent spells to suggest that an even higher caliber of player is in there ready to break out in 2014 if he can put a full season together.
2014 Cap Situation
At present only New Orleans and Dallas are projected to be further over the 2014 cap than the Steelers ($12.6 million over according to overthecap.com). The Steelers are firmly in a rebuilding/restocking phase and, barring some creative accounting or aggressive slash and burn to big cap numbers, are in for another offseason of frugal spending.
Potential Casualties
The Steelers need to create space and they can save in excess of $5million by jettisoning any one of five players. Veterans in the secondary Troy Polamalu ($8.25million saving) and Ike Taylor ($7 million saving) offer the greatest relief while aborted in-season acquisition Levi Brown seems an obvious cut candidate saving $6.25million in cap space with no dead money being added to the cap.
Opportunities from the Roster
The vacancies for players to fill on the Steelers may not become obvious until the Steelers are forced to jettison veterans in order to get under the cap and cheaper, younger players are required to fill the void. At corner Cortez Allen saw his snaps increase from 2012 to 2013 and should the Steelers jettison pricey veteran Ike Taylor then Allen’s 2012 form (+9.8 overall) offers some hope that there is some quality making the slow climb up the depth chart in the Steel City.
 

kella

Low IQ fat ass with depression and anxiety
Staff member
Administrator
Operations
That's cool stuff, where are you pulling it from? SIAP
 

Chase

Well-Known Member
Steelers will cut Levi Brown, Lamarr Woodley, Ike Taylor and will probably make Polamalu take a paycut. Can't see them bringing Ryan Clark back. Brett Keisel maybe gets a minimum deal and they'll probably re-sign Worlids once they cut Woodley. They're probably getting 3 comp picks in the draft (including a 3rd rounder for Wallace) and then their cap will be in great shape come 2015. Problem is a team who relies on the draft so much has had some pretty meh drafts lately.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Last offseason the Dolphins went on a spending spree bringing in a few big name free agents like Mike Wallace, Phillip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe. The new players along with a strong sophomore season from Ryan Tannehill helped lead Miami to be a competitive team in an up-and-down season with a disappointing finish.
While there are certainly needs on the roster, they are in position to spend even more money this free agency to again make a playoff run. If they can get more of an impact from their spending this year and have their 2013 rookie class step up, Miami could be a team to watch in 2013.
Here’s where they stand with their unrestricted free agents removed from the lineup:

Lineup-MIA1.png


Roster Notes
- Of the eight players that are either poor starters or unknown, four were players drafted within the first four rounds of the 2013 draft. All eight are at positions where a starter is a free agent and in most cases where a top backup at the position is also a free agent.
- If you wanted to judge a team just on their elite and quality starters, than you would consider the Dolphins one of the worst teams in the league. There are only four teams with one or fewer elite/quality starters with Cameron Wake being the only one in Miami.
- While the question marks going forward on the offensive line have been more public, there are just as many question marks in the secondary for 2014. Three of the four players with the most snaps in 2013 are free agents. While the team has been preparing for it, I’m sure the Dolphins want to re-sign quality players like Brent Grimes and Chris Clemons.
- In the past a big strength has been defensive tackle, but both Randy Starks and Paul Soliai are free agents and will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time next season begins. Even if one of these players is re-signed, the Dolphins will need to address the position as they currently lack depth behind Jared Odrick.
2014 Cap Situation
Per overthecap.com, the Dolphins are sitting at just over $32 million in cap space which is the fifth most in the league. Miami has just one player who has a cap hit over $8 million next year and only six with a cap hit above $4 million that will definitely not be cap casualties. That should be enough for Miami to re-sign a few of their quality defensive players as well as acquire a little help on the offensive line.
Potential Casualties
While the Dolphins have a lot of spending money, they have a few opportunities to create more cap space if they would like. One cut they could make is cornerback Dimitri Patterson. While he played well when healthy, the Dolphins would save $5.4 million by releasing him. Another move could be releasing backup quarterback Matt Moore. While there are few backup quarterbacks as good as Moore, there are also few backup quarterbacks who get paid as much as Moore. Finally if Miami was desperate, they would save over $2 million by cutting punter Brandon Fields.
Opportunities from the Roster
While we show our best guess at the Dolphins offensive line, chances are it will go through a lot of changes between now and September. The player who didn’t receive much time last year that is likely to make a jump is Dallas Thomas. The 77th overall pick of the 2013 draft saw only two offensive snaps during the 2013 season. Even if the Dolphins are able to bring in two or three new offensive linemen, Thomas should get a chance to start at either tackle or guard.
A lot could also happen at cornerback with Brent Grimes and Nolan Carroll as free agents, Dimitri Patterson possibly being a cap casualty and Jimmy Wilson possibly playing safety rather than slot cornerback. No matter how things shape out, we should see more than a combined 110 snaps from 2013 rookies Will Davis and Jamar Taylor. They might have to compete against each other for playing time.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Be it the result of a Super Bowl hangover, a mass of roster changes, or just down to an offense that failed to deliver much in 2013, theBaltimore Ravens trundled their way to an 8-8 record that left fans disappointed.
The team hired Gary Kubiak to be their new offensive coordinator recently and, given his track record there is cause for optimism there. They do have holes at key positions, however, and will have to take a sensible approach to fill those needs without putting themselves in a tough spot cap wise.
Here’s where they currently stand with unrestricted free agents removed from the lineup:

Lineup-BAL.png



Roster Notes
- Joe Flacco was an interesting player to debate in that his overall play balances out as average without him often being average. More likely to look either poor or good, he hasshown that he can be a very good quarterback, last season’s Super Bowl run proves that, but far too often he just isn’t that player.
- Given how often Kubiak likes to run two tight end sets, it’s concerning that the only player at the position currently on the roster is Matt Furstenburg. Dennis Pitta is likely to be one of their top priorities, but even if they are able to bring him back, they’ll still need more help at the position.
- It’s going to be interesting to see what they do on the offensive line, with starting tackles Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher as free-agents-to-be. That would leave Ricky Wagner and Kelechi Osemele as the starters, which is less than ideal. What they’ll want to do is bring in two players at tackle, allowing Osemele to slide back in to guard, though Monroe’s play after arriving in Baltimore will have driven his price up.
- With Daryl Smith slated to become a free agent it leaves the team with some questions at inside linebacker. Jameel McClain isn’t a capable starter at this point in his career while Arthur Brown didn’t see enough of the field to get a true reading on him in his rookie season.
- Lardarius Webb took his lumps in a comeback season from yet another knee injury, at this point he is a capable starter but if he can comeback as well as he did last time there’s little to stop him forcing himself into that elite bracket.
2014 Cap Situation
Healthy enough. With $11.9million available they are right in the middle of the pack and, while it’s not enough for them to be plotting some huge moves, they do have enough room to sign their own draft picks and have some wiggle room to create more space.
Potential Casualties
Cutting McClain would leave them with some dead money, but would net them $3.2m in savings, something that seems too good to pass up on given his level of play at this stage. Terrell Suggs would be a controversial cut, but they have already indicated that they won’t keep him at his current contract and saving $7.8m would allow them to plug some holes elsewhere. Cutting punter Sam Koch and full back Vonta Leach would save $1.6m and $1.75m respectively but outside of that there aren’t many more logical savings to be made.
Opportunities from the Roster
Defensive end DeAngelo Tyson (+1.8) is the next man up at defensive end and showed himself to be solid against the run on limited snaps in 2013. Fellow defensive lineman Brandon Williams (+4.0) was also stout against the run in limited duty, and should see an increase in snaps next year. Inside linebacker Josh Bynes (+2.3) was decent against the run, and could fit in a two-down role again next year. Wide Receiver Marlon Brown (-0.9) had a solid rookie campaign and, while the offense would benefit from improving at the position, he should still have an important role going forward. On the offensive line, Wagner had a solid season and his development this offseason will likely determine if he gets the opportunity to start in 2014.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
After going 10-6 in 2013, you’ll have to forgive Arizona Cardinals fans for being bitter about missing the playoffs. Still, they ended the season strong, including a win on the road against the eventual Super Bowl Champions, and will be confident that they can build on that going forward.
Their roster is full of talented players, but has plenty of areas of concern too, and they’ll need to correct that in the offseason if they are to fulfill their potential. Carson Palmer is nothing more than average at this point, but if they can put the talent around him they’ll be back in contention is the toughest division in football once again.
This is what the current state of their lineup (with UFAs removed) looks like:

Lineup-ARZ.png


Roster Notes
- Tight end wasn’t an area of success for the Cardinals in 2013. With Rob Housler as the projected starter at this stage it doesn’t look like they’ll improve much if they don’t find help at the position in the offseason. Poor as a blocker as well as a receiver, it’s tough to see him being successful in 2014 especially if the injury bug visits him again.
- Andre Ellington had a very good rookie season in a limited role last year. Can he do the same on a higher snap count if they don’t bring back Rashard Mendenhall? That remains to be seen, but there’s no denying how good he was in space in his first season in the league.
- The offensive line needs some work. Bradley Sowell was our lowest graded offensive tackle in his second season in the league, while Eric Winston is a free agent and didn’t fare much better. Bobby Massie would be the logical choice to replace him on the right side, but for as much as he impressed us in the second half of 2012, there is talk that the Cardinals see him as a guard and not a tackle. Much was expected of rookie Jonathan Cooper and they should finally get to see their top pick from last April’s draft on the field this year.
- The defensive backfield is a bit hit or miss. Patrick Peterson is very good and Tyrann Mathieu looks like he’s going to be a great player in the league, either at safety or in the slot (we are optimistic on his knee injury). Jerraud Powers isn’t a great starting cornerback however, and a safety duo of Rashad Johnson and Tony Jefferson isn’t much to write home about.
- Linebacker is similar, with two productive players and two you have to think they’ll be looking to replace. Daryl Washington was great in coverage, but left a lot to be desired against the run.
2014 Cap Situation
With $9.5 million in cap space they at least don’t have any work to do to get under the cap. However, with plenty of holes on the roster they’ll need to be smart about how they use their money, with their draft picks in May going to eat into that too.
Potential Casualties
Unfortunately for the Cardinals there aren’t any quick cuts they can make to save money against the cap in 2014. Palmer would give them an extra $5 million, but would result in $7 million in dead money, and leave them minus their starting quarterback so that’s not happening. Letting Jerraud Powers go would net them $2.75 million, and could do better at the position anyway, so that might be a way to go. Jasper Brinkley would give them an extra $2 million, and given his play that would make a lot of sense.
Opportunities from the Roster
Brittan Golden
saw just 48 snaps in his second season in the league but still managed to put up 136 receiving yards on four receptions, with two 50+ yarders giving a flash of potential. Fifth round draft pick Stepfan Taylor looked decent on 36 carries, and will likely see more snaps in 2014. Alameda Ta’amu looked really good against the run in limited duty, and will likely continue to be part of the defensive line rotation when he returns to the field after suffering a torn ACL in Week 17.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
The truth hurts with this one

The Packers had an interesting season to say the least. They lost many of their most important players due to injury for various amounts of time but still managed to win the division. They are heading into an interesting offseason with a number of fan favorites hitting free agency. It has been reported that for the first time in years the Packers plan on being active in free agency.
Even with everyone healthy, it seems like the Packers have fallen behind the elite teams of the NFC like Seattle and San Francisco. The roster is bound to change between now and next season, but it’s good to see what Green Bay has at this point to see where the Packers most need to improve.
Key:
- Player markers are colored per class on a five-step ‘Poor’ to ‘High Quality’ scale based on their overall performance and the league’s elite are marked separately in blue.
- Colored outlines suggest a potential change in class.
- Underlined players will be 30+ years old for the 2014 season.
- Red player names suggest injury risks.
- Click on the image to enlarge.

lineup-GB.png


Roster Notes
- At one point tight end was viewed as one of the deepest positions on the Packers roster. They often have kept five on the roster despite using two tight end sets less often than the average team. At this point it now looks like one of the weakest positions on the roster. Their current projected starter is Ryan Taylor who has just 43 career receiving yards on 91 career pass routes. It is the only position group where the Packers don’t have at least one solid starter.
- Even though the Packers lost Greg Jennings and Donald Driver last year and could lose James Jones this year, they still have one of the best trios of receivers in the league with Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin.
- Few teams look to be as reliant as their 2013 draft class as the Packers. Eddie Lacy and David Bakhtiari were both starters last year. Due to potential free agent losses, the Packers could also be starting J.C. Tretter at center as well as Datone Jones and Josh Boyd on the defensive line. Johnathan Franklin should have a larger role this year as a backup, and there is certainly a chance Casey Heyward plays more outside CB allowing Micah Hyde to play in the slot.
- Most teams are filled with adequate starters, with each team having an average of six. Green Bay is one of just three teams to have two or fewer.
2014 Cap Situation
Per overthecap.com, the Packers have $28.5 million of cap space available to spend this offseason which is sixth most. The Packers as always are one of the youngest teams so a high portion of their roster are on their rookie deals. Only eight players are scheduled to make over $4 million. That should be enough money to either re-sign some of their own free agents, bring in some players from other teams, or some combination of the two.
Potential Casualties
One cut that could be surprising but might make sense is cornerback Tramon Williams. He signed a four year deal after an excellent 2010 season, but in the first three years of the contract failed to match the same level of play. Cutting him would add an additional $7.5 million in cap space. He will be celebrating his 31st birthday in a month, and the Packers have a lot of young players at the position that already have experience.
At inside linebacker neither A.J. Hawk nor Brad Jones has lived up to their contracts. Cutting either would add just under $2 million in cap space, and an in-house replacement already exists in Jamari Lattimore. Cornerback Jarrett Bush has been kept around just for his special teams, but had a -2.0 special teams grade last year and is scheduled to make more money than half the starters on the team.
Opportunities from the Roster
The biggest opportunity is for the Packers young defensive linemen. All three starters in Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji and Johnny Jolly as well as backup C.J. Wilson are free agents and might not be re-signed. This should mean a lot more playing time for two recent high draft picks Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy. Josh Boyd also saw more playing time as the season went on, and that playing time could continue to increase. Even if the Packers re-sign one of their own or bring in someone from another team, all three players will have more snaps in 2014 than 2013.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Going back through the last few first round picks
2013 Datone Jones - Bum
2012 Nick Perry - Bum, couldn't even get on the field last year even with all the injuries
2011 Derrek Sherrod - out of the NFL
2010 Bryan Bulaga - ok, but missed all of last year
2009 - BJ Raji - probably ate himself off the team
2009 - CM3 - awful contract that is going to cause more problems than the Rodgers contract.
2008 - no pick
2007 - Justin Harrell - out of the league.

Lots of misses in the first round for TT, the later picks will keep the team competitive with Rodgers.
 

GR8 2 B FL G8R

Well-Known Member
2013 - Vaccaro - Beast
2012 - None
2011 - Jordan - Beast, Ingram - Maybe Bust, Maybe Beast
2010 - P Rob - Average, Has Potential to be a Starting CB
2009 - Jenkins - Average, FA this year
2008 - Ellis - Bust, out of the league
2007 - Meachem - Meh, Got him back on the Vet Min after SD overpaid him in 2012 and cut him
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Heading back to the NFC East for the final time, our tour of league lineups ahead of free agency takes on the division champion Philadelphia Eagles. The first year under Chip Kelly, with a few hiccups along the way, was a successful one with an explosive offense paving the way to Philadelphia’s eighth division title since the turn of the century.
With unrestricted free agents taken out of picture for the time being, the Eagles are in strong shape already with plenty of cap room to add to a team that went from worst to first in a division that failed to live up to its title as the “NFC Beast” in 2013. The questions surrounding the current state of the roster revolve largely around a defense still coping with its switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 front. In the front seven there is tinkering to be done while in the secondary there is perhaps more need for a continued overhaul to allow this team to take further strides.

Lineup-PHI.png


Roster Notes
- The gaudy statistics might lead you to look first at the skill positions but it all starts on the line for the Eagles. After some early wobbles as Jason Peters recovered from injury and Lane Johnson got used to life in the NFL, the Eagles’ line came together and was simply demolishing defenses. There is no better left side than Peters and Evan Mathis while on the right side Todd Herremans and Johnson could boast a similar claim if they can avoid repeating some poor early-season displays in pass protection.
- Moving past that terrific line, we take a look at the skill positions. Leading from the front is LeSean McCoy whose speed and decisiveness getting upfield blended perfectly with Chip Kelly’s open offense and the blocking he got up front. Our highest-graded running back last season, (+31.2) McCoy collected more than a third of his yards on 26 breakaway carries (15+ yards), leading the league in breakaway yards (585) by nearly 100 yards.
- Turning our attention to the defense and you see the areas that need investment or patience before we start to see the yellows and oranges turning to the two shades of green. At corner the Eagles got what they should have expected with Cary Williams a (just about) average corner who, after a strong debut, (+3.4 coverage at Washington) turned in more poor games in coverage than good.
- At linebacker the Eagles do have a defender trending upward in the shape of Mychal Kendricks. After an absolutely dire first month of the season. (-17.6 overall, eight missed tackles) Kendricks was much improved over the rest of the season with some strong games in run defense in the season’s final month. Kendricks still misses too many tackles (23 in total) and makes more plays coming forward than going backward but, deployed correctly, Kendricks is a valuable, incisive, linebacker for the Eagles.
2014 Cap Situation
The Eagles have holes to fill, positions to upgrade, and the ammunition ($20 million cap space according to overthecap.com) to make the necessary moves. The Eagles have never been ones to sit on their hands in free agency so expect targeted aggression once again as they go shopping for players to help them make the next step.
Potential Casualties
The Eagles can add further to their cap space by offloading the likes of DeMeco Ryans whose $6.9 million cap hit can be wiped off the books with no penalty and his performance (-21.4overall, 14 missed tackles) on the field shouldn’t be too tough to replace. In the secondary, Patrick Chung only arrived last year but after a poor first season (-8.1) that showed precious little ability to progress on his time with the Patriots he could be released penalty-free to create another $3.25 million in cap space.
Opportunities from the Roster
Symptomatic of a team stacked with talent, the Eagles signed one of the more versatile free agents last year, James Casey, and made scant use of him on offense. Casey made his presence felt as one of the Eagles’ best special teamers but it will be interesting to see if Chip Kelly can give him more opportunities to make his impact on offense than the 157 snaps he got this season.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
So wouldn't the 49 yards he "managed" against Seattle in the Divisional Round be the most important thing.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Free Agent Running Backs

1. Knowshon Moreno
2012 Grade: +9.9
2012 Snaps: 724
Summary:
The No. 1 running back, almost by default, comes from this year’s Super Bowl runner up. Knowshon Moreno is the only back on this list without injury, workload, or age concerns. This last season Moreno proved that he can produce effectively in an every-down role over the course of the season. In terms of pure ability, there are probably six or seven free agents I’d prefer, but none are proven commodities at this point in time. At just 27 years old, and with just 992 career touches to his name, Moreno is sure to have at least a few more productive seasons in his legs before the dreaded running back decline sets in.
2013 was by far Moreno’s most accomplished as a pro. He set career highs in snaps (724), rushing yards (1,038), receiving yards (548), touchdowns (13), and PFF grade (+9.9). His 241 carries were more the most Moreno’s had in a season since his rookie year and is 60 receptions were a career high by a wide margin. With his rushing (+4.2 grade), pass catching (+7.0 grade), and adequate pass blocking (0.0 grade) ability, Moreno provides the ability to plug and play 600+ snaps immediately.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
2012 Grade: +3.9
2012 Snaps: 664
Summary:
If this were two offseasons ago Maurice Jones-Drew would be the unquestioned number one back available. As it stands now though, teams will likely give the other members of this Top 10 a closer look than the former All-Pro. I like MJD’s chances of having a something left in the tank, though.
2013 was a frustrating year for the Jaguars and an even more so for Jones-Drew. He battled ankle and hamstring injuries all year and ran behind the worst run blocking in the NFL per our grading. It all led to a career-low 3.4 yards per carry and a PFF-era-low 2.2 average yards after contact. Lost in his poor rushing, however, was an utterly incredible pass blocking season. In 110 pass blocking snaps he didn’t allow a single pressure. That’s the most unblemished set of pass blocking snaps we’ve ever seen. If he can get his legs healthy, MJD is as complete a running back as they come.
The big question is can his legs return to form at 29 years of age with 1,804 carries to his name? Maybe not all the way back, but he doesn’t have to be in the upper echelon of running backs in the league.
3. Ben Tate
2012 Grade: -3.6
2012 Snaps: 491
Summary:
Of all the running back free agents to be, Ben Tate might command the largest contract. At a youthful 25 years of age (26 by start of next season) with 421 career attempts, Tate is poised to play at a high level over a full four-to-five year contract. The Texans’ back has a career 4.7 yards per carry average and an elite size/speed combination (5-foot-11, 220-pounds, 4.43 combine 40-yard dash). The only problem is that Tate’s best season came all the way back in 2011. In that season he ran for 987 yards at 5.4 yards per carry with an average of 3.3 yards after contact.
He’s been no slouch since then, with +4.6 rushing grades in each of the past two seasons, but he didn’t blow the doors off in a full-time role last season like some expected. From week 7 on, Tate took 130 carries for 504 yards for a yards per carry of 3.9 and a yards after contact of 2.0. He also dropped three passes and had a receiving grade of -5.3 in those eight games.While he did play with four broken ribs for some of that time, it tempered my enthusiasm of his impending free agency a tiny bit. Still, if I had to choose the most talented free agent running back it would be him.
Tate’s contract is the one out of this group I am most curious to see. With Arian Foster’s $8.5m cap hit next season and virtually unreleasable contract, Tate will hit the open market for all to bid. Reggie Bush’s four-year $16m from last offseason is the barometer I’m looking at with Tate. With his age and talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got more.
4. LeGarrette Blount
2012 Grade: +10.1
2012 Snaps: 289
Summary:
He may look more like a linebacker, but Legarrette Blount has proven in his four seasons that he can flat out run with the rock in his hands. Over his career he’s averaged a missed tackle once every 5.4 carries and 3.06 yards after contact per attempt. To illustrate how insane that is, only one running back last season had a better yards after contact than Blount’s career average (Andre Ellington). His rookie season was one of the more under-appreciated seasons in recent memory. In 2010 he led the NFL with 50 broken tackles on just 201 attempts (22nd-most in the NFL) and averaged 5.0 yards per carry behind our 30th-ranked run blocking unit.
Blount’s talent has never been the issue, though. Ever since his infamous punch his final year at Oregon, Blount has been followed by character concerns that won’t cease now. It caused him to go undrafted and will likely cause some teams to pass without thinking twice again this time around. Even after a tremendous bounce-back season in New England where he had the ninth-highest rushing grade at +7.8 (highest of all free agents) on just 153 attempts, don’t expect Blount to command top dollar in free agency. He’ll likely still have to prove he’s matured and won’t put up a season like in 2012 where he failed to break a tackle on 41 attempts and averaged just 1.8 yards after contact.
5. Donald Brown
2012 Grade: +6.9
2012 Snaps: 379
Summary:
Taken 15 picks after Moreno in the first round of the 2009 draft, Donald Brown had similarly failed to live up to his lofty draft status until this past season. Brown’s struggles may have had more to do with opportunities than anything else. In his five seasons, the Colts’ running back amassed a mere 551 carries and averaged over 10 carries a game in just one season. That could be a gift and a curse for potential free agent suitors. On one hand, Brown should be fresh at just 27 years of age with so few carries under his belt, but on the other, he may not transition well into a full-time role.
One thing you can be certain of with Brown, though, is that you’ll be getting a talented running back. The former Connecticut standout’s 2013 season proved once and for all that Trent Richardson’s struggles weren’t just the offensive lines fault. Brown averaged a whopping 2.4 yards more per carry than Richardson (5.3 vs. 2.9) and had an elusive rating 25.4 points higher (73.8 vs. 48.4). By our metric, Brown calculated out as the most elusive back last year with at least 100 touches. He also was one of the biggest breakaway threats, achieving eight runs of 15 yards or more and 40% of his total yards on those runs.
The biggest question for the former first-rounder is: was last season an aberration or the norm? Brown set career highs in almost every category and it would be safe to expect some sort of regression. The Colts’ slew of coaches have also never been confident enough in Brown’s ability to give him the full-time role. It’s also worth noting that he got all his production behind our 23rd-ranked run blocking unit. He may not command top dollar in free agency, but Brown will be a quality back wherever he ends up next season.
6. James Starks
2012 Grade: +5.6
2012 Snaps: 224
Summary:
If a team is looking for high risk-reward potential in free agency, James Starks is your man. Starks won’t command anything too pricey on the open market, due in large part to his vast injury history. In four NFL seasons, he has missed 29 total games due to injury. That’s not a great omen for a back that will already be 28 years old by the start of the 2014 season.
With all that said, Starks’ talent is undeniable. At 6-foot-2 and 218-pounds, the former sixth-round pick out of Buffalo resembles a poor man’s Adrian Peterson. Including the playoffs, Starks had the highest yards per carry of any back with at least 75 carries at 5.6. He also tied for the second highest yards after contact per attempt at 3.0.
Starks shares quite a few similarities to Donald Brown in that both are coming off of career years with inconsistent production previously and limited attempts. Neither have ever taken handoffs behind quality run blocking either. It’s hard to imagine any team going into the 2014 season with Starks as their featured back because of his injury history and you’ll most likely see him perform in a tandem next year. Outside of Ben Tate, I’m probably most excited to see what Starks can do with if he gets any sort of an increased role.
7. Rashad Jennings
2012 Grade: +6.0
2012 Snaps: 567
Summary:
In his fifth season in the NFL Rashad Jennings thrived in a full time role. After playing four seasons in Jacksonville with mixed results, Jennings signed in Oakland for just $630k and had a fantastic year. From Week 9 on Jennings was given the bulk of the Raiders’ carries and did not disappoint. In the last eight games he played, Jennings gained 593 yards at 4.7 yards per carry and averaged 2.9 yards after contact. He outperformed former No. 4 overall pick Darren McFadden by leaps and bounds with an overall grade 15.8 points higher.
Jennings is still fairly close to a one-hit wonder, though. His 2012 season was absolutely dismal. Then with Jacksonville he averaged 2.8 yards per carry and broke just six tackles on 101 carries. Hopefully that can just be chalked up to lingering effects from his 2011 knee injury that cost him the whole season. Whatever the reason may be, Jennings likely won’t command too much on the open market with the valid question marks about his inconsistency and his age (will be 29 by training camp).
8. Rashard Mendenhall
2012 Grade: -3.5
2012 Snaps: 470
Summary:
Running behind an offensive line as porous as the Cardinals’ was last season always makes for a difficult evaluation. Averaging the fifth-worst yards per carry (3.2) when the league leader in yards per carry is your teammate doesn’t help your cause, though. Rashard Mendenhall’s career stats and grades paint the picture of a quality back, but never much more. The alarming thing is that Mendenhall has been trending precipitously downwards as of late. From 2009-2011 Mendenhall had running grades of -2.1, +0.5, and+6.1 along with elusive ratings of 36.6, 35.3, and 37.1. In 2012-2013 his running grades were -4.5 and -4.7 while his elusive ratings were 31.9 and 26.1. Mendenhall still has his flashes, and there is no doubt he was limited by the run blocking struggles in Arizona. It’s just that there isn’t too much to get enthused about for the type of contract he might demand as a four year starter ($2.5M last offseason).
9. Toby Gerhart
2012 Grade: +3.0
2012 Snaps: 199
Summary:
Toby Gerhart is another one in the group of highly-talented free agent backs that never really got a chance at full-time snaps. A former second-round selection, Gerhart served as a sort of ‘insurance plan’ to Adrian Peterson that only had to be cashed in for a few games in 2011. His career stats are still mighty impressive, though: 276 carries for 1,305 yards at 4.7 yards per carry and 2.8 yards after contact per attempt.
While, in retrospect, the Vikings would have been better off using their 51st overall pick in the 2010 draft on a different position, Gerhart played up to his draft status when given the chance. At 6-foot-1, 231-pounds, Gerhart appears well suited for a heavy workload. It will be interesting to see if a team takes a flier on the 27-year-old running back and gives him those carries.
10. Andre Brown
2012 Grade: -4.6
2012 Snaps: 369
Summary:
If deemed healthy, former teammate Ahmad Bradshaw would be more deserving of this spot, but Andre Brown is a quality option in his own right. Injuries soured a promising 2013 campaign and could limit his potential in free agency, but he’s still an intriguing option. It’s not his 2013 season, but his 2012 season that I’m talking about, though. In 2012 Brown had a PFF grade of +5.4 in 225 snaps with 5.3 yards per carry and 3.4 yards after contact per attempt. Mix that with the fact that Brown is six feet tall, 227-pounds, and ran a 4.49 40 at the combine and there is reason to take a long look. The problem is that’s all the numbers we have to base Brown off of. After he put up those numbers he broke his leg twice and never looked the same. Brown should come cheap, but it will likely be a roll of the dice on what kind of production you’ll get based on his history.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Free Agent Edge Rushers

Earlier today you saw the first of these lists, the quarterbacks, and now you get a breakdown of the top players charged with getting after those QBs. This includes defenders from both 3-4 and 4-3 schemes that primarily play as ‘edge rushers’.
In some cases the highlighted defenders not only play on the edge of the defensive line, but also occasionally on the interior (including Michael Bennett and Justin Tuck). The fact that they primarily line up as a defensive end puts them on this list.
Here are the 10 best available as the 2014 free agency period nears:
1. Michael Bennett
2013 Grade: +36.2

2013 Snaps: 759
Once again Michael Bennett is the top-rated free agent Edge Defender; on what was a relatively light one-year deal considering his past production, the former Buccaneer played 226 fewer snaps than in 2012 despite the Super Bowl run and saw his overall grade go from+18.8 to +36.2. Obviously Seattle had significantly better players than the 2012 Tampa Bay defensive unit, but Bennett’s continuing dominant performance cannot be ignored. The downside is that it’s going to be difficult for the reigning Champions to hold onto him.
Perhaps the biggest compliment to Bennett’s 2013 performance is that he was the highest-overall graded defender on this stacked Seattle defense. The former 2009 undrafted free agent never received a ‘red’ grade in run defense or pass rushing, while earning a total of 16 combined ‘green’ grades in these areas. One aspect to improve would be penalties (-7.5 for 11 infractions).
2. Greg Hardy
2013 Grade: +27.2

2013 Snaps: 954
Nicknamed “The Kraken”, Greg Hardy, a former 2010 sixth-round pick, has proven his worth. Faring well in limited snaps his rookie year (+4.7 overall in 402 snaps), Hardy received a significant bump in playing time the following year (just over 500 more snaps), but his production (especially in run defense), suffered. However, his third year (+20.2 overall in 769 snaps) suggested his sophomore season was more of a fluke than a sign of things to come, while last season reiterated that point and made him almost, if not quite, a household name.
In 2013, Hardy achieved the fourth-best Run Stop Percentage and Pass Rushing Productivity rating among 4-3 Defensive Ends. He also got better as the season progressed, earning a season-best +2.4 run defense grade in Weeks 12 and 16 (the crucial Saints rematch that helped win the NFC South title) and collecting seven sacks, nine QB hits, and 12 hurries in the final three regular season contests. Unlike some other defenders on this list, Hardy seemed to step it up a notch at the end of the season. Teams looking to add a 4-3 defensive end should notice that.
3. Brian Orakpo
2013 Grade: +24.9

2013 Snaps: 827
After being lost for the year to a pectoral injury just 87 snaps into the 2012 season, Orakpo had a lot to prove in 2013, especially after the Redskins managed to win a division title without him. He responded with a career-best +24.9 overall grade. He could not match his amazing 2011 production in pass rushing, but he set new highs in run defense and coverage grades, both areas which he had previously struggled in throughout his Washington tenure.
In fact, not including his brief 2012 stint, Orakpo had never earned a positive grade in run defense or coverage since entering the league in 2009. His struggles in coverage are at least understandable, but his weakness in run defense was harder to ignore; he simply lost far too one-on-one battles, sometimes even with tight ends. If last season is any indication, he has overcome that hurdle as he became a more complete defender, never receiving a ‘red’ grade defending the run. As noted, he also improved in coverage, where he allowed seven of 10 targets to be completed, but for only a total of 34 yards; he also collected a pick-six against Jay Cutler.
4. Michael Johnson
2013 Grade: +26.0

2013 Snaps: 976
Former third-round draft pick Johnson has never graded out as an elite pass rusher, but he has proven to be a force against opposing running games. With a +20.6 grade in this area and a Run Stop Percentage tied for fifth best among 4-3 DEs last season, teams looking for assistance in run defense should take a long look at Johnson.
As for rushing the passer, last season was the first time in his five-year career that we’ve given him a positive grade in this area (+3.5). While he only had five sacks, he did otherwise knock opposing QBs down 17 times, along with 41 hurries. His consistency is the problem, though. Although he was never blanked in this area of the stat sheet, he did have five red-graded performances, including three against each divisional opponent.
5. Lamarr Houston
2013 Grade: +11.4

2013 Snaps: 1,049
Lamarr Houston, a 2010 second-round draft pick, was one of the bright spots on a weak Raiders defense. He was especially helpful in defending the run, earning the sixth-best grade in this area among 4-3 DEs and the best Run Stop Percentage among that group (with a minimum of 230 run defense snaps qualifying).
His production in terms of harassing signal-callers was not as impressive, though. In the first seven games he did contribute four sacks (including a rare strip-sack of Peyton Manning on Monday Night Football), nine QB knockdowns and 25 hurries. In the last nine games, however, he was much less of a factor, mustering seven QB hits but only a pair of sacks and 16 hurries. It is fair to wonder if opposing QBs would’ve been more uncomfortable against him if his team was still in playoff contention late in the year.
6. Justin Tuck
2013 Grade: +15.4
2013 Snaps: 896

Justin Tuck is perhaps known best for his dominating performances in both of their recent Super Bowl victories. The veteran earned a +11.7 run defense grade that was the eighth-best among his 4-3 defensive end peers, and his 12 sacks were tied for fifth most with Carolina’s Charles Johnson. He also finished with the second-highest overall grade on the Giants defense in 2013.
His performance against the run is hard to dispute, but his pass rushing stats can be. His four-sack game against the Redskins in Week 13, for example, is a little misleading; he quickly beat a lineman for one sack, but the three others were a result of pressure created by others, the QB holding onto the ball too long, and him being unblocked. He was also shut out twice and earned five red grades in this area. This will be his 10th season in the league and, while he’s never graded negatively overall, it is fair to wonder if he will ever repeat his earlier dominance, especially for a new team.
7. Anthony Spencer
2013 Grade: -0.9

2013 Snaps: 38
Despite a superb 2012 campaign (+26.6 overall), many scoffed at the Cowboys’ decision to franchise tag Spencer for the 2013 season. Those concerns turned out to be valid as Spencer was unable to help a defense that became decimated by injury, playing in only one game. That single game came in Week 2 in Kansas City where he collected a hit and a hurry in 22 rushes.
If Spencer is indeed healthy, he should be able to contribute. Aside from health concerns, the biggest question will be whether he will play as a defensive end (which he was slated to in Monte Kiffin’s new 4-3 Dallas defense last season), or as an outside LB, which is what he played during most of his time with the Cowboys.
8. Everson Griffen
2013 Grade: +4.7
2013 Snaps: 717

Everson Griffen, a fourth-round draft pick out of USC in 2010, was not a starter, but was one of only four Vikings defenders to finish the season with a ‘green’ overall grade. It did take him four weeks into the season to record more than two pressures, and he only had one spectacular pass rushing performance (registering nine pressures against an underrated Washington offensive line in Week 10 on Thursday Night Football). But it’s worth noting he was never blanked in the 2013 season and his only overall-negatively graded season in his four-year career came in 2012 and was mostly due to penalties (he had eight). Any team looking for depth should take a look.
9. Willie Young
2013 Grade: +7.0
2013 Snaps: 801

Former first-round draft picks Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley get most of the attention for Detroit’s defensive line, but starting right defensive end Willie Young has also been a factor. A seventh-round pick from 2010, Young earned the third-highest overall grade on that fearsome Lions DL, with only six penalties dragging that grade down. While he only recorded four sacks, he did register another 56 pressures and four batted passes.
Unfortunately, like the rest of his team, Young’s production (in terms of pass rushing) dropped as the season wore on. He earned a +6.2 pass-rushing grade in the first nine games, but could only manage a -1.3 in the final seven games. Like Lamarr Houston, teams will be asking about the late-season decrease in production.
10. Robert Ayers
2013 Grade: +11.6
2013 Snaps: 616

Like Orakpo, Robert Ayers was an edge rusher selected in the first round of the 2009 draft. Unlike Orakpo, though, Ayers, who was selected after Orakpo, has been criticized for his lack of production considering his high draft slot. With Von Miller missing the first six games (suspension) and six snaps shy of the last five games (ACL injury), Ayers was especially needed, and responded by earning the fourth-best run defense grade on this unit which included 17 Stops and only three missed tackles. While not near the top of the league in the category, he also contributed as a pass rusher, with his best stretch in this area coming between that Week 16 Houston game where Miller went down through the AFC Championship (+6.7). However, he was also blanked in this area in three games, and, like the rest of his team, failed in the biggest game of his career – Super Bowl XLVIII, where he could only muster a single hurry.
 

GR8 2 B FL G8R

Well-Known Member
According to Madden, it's Orakpo 1, Hardy 2, Bennett 3

What your rankings don't take into account is the player's full body of work (such as Orakpo being a 95 beast at UT, Hardy being a 93 beast at Ole Miss, Ingram winning the Heisman, etc)

You can't look at strictly 2013 when assessing a free agent
 

pavel

likes elk steak likes
Utopia Moderator
pack, where are you finding those team-by-position breakdowns? Really interesting stuff
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
With our Projected Lineups series continuing through the draft order and now into the 2013 playoff teams, we arrive in Kansas City. The Chiefs’ pre-bye 9-0 record ended up propelling them into the playoffs as a wild card, but their 2-5 second half and one-and-done postseason left some questions to answer.
With a receiving weapons shortage being a familiar issue and the expected shuffling on the offensive line adding to the concern, the offense has work to do. Defensively still strong, though, few parts will be needed on that side of the ball to keep up the standard set in 2013.
Here’s where the lineups stand with UFAs removed as we head toward the start of free agency:
Key:
- Player markers are colored per class on a five-step ‘Poor’ to ‘High Quality’ scale based on their overall performance and the league’s elite are marked separately in blue.
- Colored outlines suggest a potential change in class.
- Underlined players will be 30+ years old for the 2014 season.
- Red player names suggest injury risks.
- Click on the image to enlarge.



Lineup-KC.png


Roster Notes
- KC’s entrenched studs on either side of the ball, inside linebacker Derrick Johnson and halfback Jamaal Charles, have vastly different surroundings as far as the cast lining up alongside them. While Johnson sees a lot of green – and some potential blue – in the men making up his front line, Charles has a wall of yellow and orange as his aid and ‘do enough’ QB to share the backfield with.
- Dontari Poe’s leap from a rookie struggling to find form in 2012 to a run-swallowing terror on the nose in 2013 was remarkable and seems to have finally settled the point position for the KC D. The Poe effect was a positive one on free agent-to-be Tyson Jackson who enjoyed his best season as a run defender and, with Mike Devito plugged into Glenn Dorsey’s vacated spot on the other side, the Chief D-line performed as one of the season’s best against the ground game.
- With potential free agent losses along the O-line threatening to steal away a pair of starters (well, three since Asamoah and Schwartz split the season), much of the strength in that group could be stripped away. If Albert is let go and 2013’s top pick Eric Fisher slides over to the left, not only will they be stepping down from a Top-10 pass protecting vet to a sophomore who ended among the 10 lowest graded tackles in that regard, but they’ll also create a fully upset right side. Donald Stephenson saw time at both tackle spots last year and came around a bit as playing time became regular, but had his lone green-graded day in pass blocking while on the left.
- As Eric Berry stepped his play up to the next level – finishing with the third-highest coverage grade (+12.5) among safeties, strong Tackling Efficiency numbers in both phases, and 17 total pressures as a blitzer – the high spot next to him on the defense’s last line is in flux. Kendrick Lewis and Quintin Demps are both set to become free agents, as is Husain Abdullah, and replacing the 2000+ snaps they contributed will be a focus for the offseason.
2014 Cap Situation
The Chiefs’ cap space number of right around $3M (per overthecap.com) has them in the league’s last third so they’ll need to be frugal while shopping for upgrades and replacements and should be exploring any restructure opportunities that may exist.
Potential Casualties
The top players representing potential cap savings happen to be some of the anchors of the roster – some of them even outperforming sizable deals — so while its money well spent, the options for freeing up spending space are limited. Saying goodbye to players like Chase Daniel, Donnie Avery and Anthony Fasano could get back another $3.7M, but any larger chunk would cost a starter the team is unlikely to part with. Perhaps the blossoming Reid-Smith relationship could lead to Smith’s $8M cap number being brought down with an extension in this, his final year of a three-year contract.
Opportunities from the Roster
Defensive end Allen Bailey could inherit Tyson Jackson’s spot and, based on the 453 snaps he put in as part of last season’s rotation, could be an ever-valuable younger, cheaper plan that offers similar production. Likewise, tight end Travis Kelce, if back healthy from knee surgery, might work into the second receiving option the team has lacked. A long way to get there, but there’s a need for that kind of fit and Kelce’s game is supposed to be of that mold. That said, the door is still open for a receiver, any receiver, to step up opposite Dwayne Bowe and, with Dexter McCluster a free agent, the slot job is up for grabs as well. Could A.J. Jenkins carve out a home? Based on his track record the smart money would say otherwise — loudly — but there was a brief moment of shine late in the year and maybe this second chance is one that pays off.
 

Packfan

Administrator
Administrator
Profootball Focus, I think it is in their paid section that is why I am copy and pasting per their rules and regulations
 
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