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2013-14 Premier League
- Thread starter BIG EVIL
- Start date
Orangebird
Premier League Champs
Ox trying to be too cute.
Snorky's Shame
Well-Known Member
Looks like the top 4 is settled
Captain Obvious is obvious.....but that was a bad weekend for Chelsea.
Up 9 on City w/ City having 3 games in hand just meant Chelsea had to out-do City by 1 point over the remaining stretch of the season. And that's assuming City won all those games in hand. Reasonable, from Chelsea's point of view.
Now Chelsea rely on City dropping points at least twice, and then matching/exceeding City's performances in the other games. Not to mention Arsenal and Liverpool are each just 4 points back, and both have a game in hand.
Bad for Chelsea.......but really exciting for the run-in.
Remaining games amongst those 4 teams:
Chelsea v Arsenal
Liverpool v Chelsea
Arsenal v City
Liverpool v City
2 each. Advantage Liverpool? Since they host both of their games?
Up 9 on City w/ City having 3 games in hand just meant Chelsea had to out-do City by 1 point over the remaining stretch of the season. And that's assuming City won all those games in hand. Reasonable, from Chelsea's point of view.
Now Chelsea rely on City dropping points at least twice, and then matching/exceeding City's performances in the other games. Not to mention Arsenal and Liverpool are each just 4 points back, and both have a game in hand.
Bad for Chelsea.......but really exciting for the run-in.
Remaining games amongst those 4 teams:
Chelsea v Arsenal
Liverpool v Chelsea
Arsenal v City
Liverpool v City
2 each. Advantage Liverpool? Since they host both of their games?
silverwheels
PLAY LA BAMBA BABY
Yeah, I would say that Liverpool has the most favorable stretch of games left.
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
I'm not 100% sure about that. Chelsea do have Arsenal and Liverpool, but their other 6 games should be 6 wins. And, really, I expect Arsenal to lose to Chelsea on Saturday.
Arsenal probably have the toughest run-in, because they also have to play away at Everton in addition to playing @ Chelsea and City. Liverpool do get the tough teams at home, but I don't think they get 6 points from playing City and Chelsea.
So, let's say for the sake of argument that Chelsea go with 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. That puts them at 85 points. Liverpool would need 23 points to overcome them, Arsenal 24 (adding a point for goal differential). Both of those have 9 games left. That means Liverpool would have to win 7 and draw 2 games to overtake Chelsea. Arsenal would have to win 8 and lose 1 to overtake Chelsea, which is unlikely. So, if Chelsea holds serve, they'll be ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool. ManCity would need 25 points in 11 games to overtake Chelsea. That's much more doable - 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. Their run in is the toughest, yes, but the only two games where they might not be favored are @ Arsenal and @ Liverpool. They could lose both of those and still have the title under my math.
So, I think it comes down to City and Chelsea. Whichever of those two teams drops the most points against the bad teams will lose the title. I feel like that's an obvious statement, but that's how I see it. It's between City and Chelsea, barring a great run by Liverpool or Arsenal. Liverpool are more capable than Arsenal of putting together that type of run, but I still think that's unlikely.
Arsenal probably have the toughest run-in, because they also have to play away at Everton in addition to playing @ Chelsea and City. Liverpool do get the tough teams at home, but I don't think they get 6 points from playing City and Chelsea.
So, let's say for the sake of argument that Chelsea go with 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. That puts them at 85 points. Liverpool would need 23 points to overcome them, Arsenal 24 (adding a point for goal differential). Both of those have 9 games left. That means Liverpool would have to win 7 and draw 2 games to overtake Chelsea. Arsenal would have to win 8 and lose 1 to overtake Chelsea, which is unlikely. So, if Chelsea holds serve, they'll be ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool. ManCity would need 25 points in 11 games to overtake Chelsea. That's much more doable - 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. Their run in is the toughest, yes, but the only two games where they might not be favored are @ Arsenal and @ Liverpool. They could lose both of those and still have the title under my math.
So, I think it comes down to City and Chelsea. Whichever of those two teams drops the most points against the bad teams will lose the title. I feel like that's an obvious statement, but that's how I see it. It's between City and Chelsea, barring a great run by Liverpool or Arsenal. Liverpool are more capable than Arsenal of putting together that type of run, but I still think that's unlikely.
Deadman, I mostly agree. But "should win" obviously doesn't mean "will win." Hell, Chelsea should've won on Saturday.
I do think Chelsea will beat the Gunners at home. At Liverpool is a different hurdle though. The good news is that Chelsea have mostly played their best games against the best teams.
For to Chelsea to win the title, I think they need to win at Liverpool, and have City go through a couple/few game stretch where they can't win on the road....like they did early.
I do think Chelsea will beat the Gunners at home. At Liverpool is a different hurdle though. The good news is that Chelsea have mostly played their best games against the best teams.
For to Chelsea to win the title, I think they need to win at Liverpool, and have City go through a couple/few game stretch where they can't win on the road....like they did early.
Yankee151
Hot Girl Summer
I can tell you one game already that City are going to lose or draw on the road; @Crystal Palace. Pullis' 11 men behind the ball in a relegation battle will exacerbate City's scoring issues against bus parkers.
Incidentally, Good article on that relegation battle: http://www.whoscored.com/Articles/m...tle-to-Avoid-Relegation-in-the-Premier-League
Incidentally, Good article on that relegation battle: http://www.whoscored.com/Articles/m...tle-to-Avoid-Relegation-in-the-Premier-League
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Yeah, I can see that. If Chelsea can beat everybody else besides Liverpool and Arsenal, I think they'll probably win the title. Regardless of whether they beat Liverpool and Arsenal. I really think this comes down to which of ManCity and Chelsea drop more points against the mediocre teams.
People seem overly high on Liverpool in my view. I still think their defense is a big weak link, and odds are that they can't maintain their hot streak over the remaining 9 games. ManCity and Chelsea are both more than capable of exploiting Liverpool's defense. I mean, Hazard against Flanagan? Aguero against Skrtel? Navas/Silva against Flanagan? That's a huge mismatch. Granted, City have a mismatch with Sturridge/Saurez against whatever crappy CB pairs with Kompany. I think City and Chelsea have the ability to take advantage of Liverpool.
There's nobody else on the schedule that really scares me:
Besides home to Arsenal and and at Liverpool, Chelsea have: @ Palace, Stoke, @ Swansea, Sunderland, Norwich, @ Cardiff. There are some relegation battle teams in there who will fight hard, but Chelsea have something to fight for too, so hopefully they aren't just going through the motions. Those all "should" be wins. What scares me most is some of those teams desperately needing a point to hang on, and full on parking the bus. Chelsea's defense has been stout of late, but there are games (like Villa on Saturday) where struggle to score if the other team is committed to defense.
Most of the goals have come on fast break counter attacks, usually involving Hazard. If the opposition keeps an army of bodies back, it's tough. Chelsea doesn't run a great half court offense, so to speak.
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Good point. On that note, @ Palace or Norwich are the games where that is most likely to happen in my view.
Brick
Well-Known Member
Stop tagging me. Michigan are horrible.
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Don't know what you're talking about.
Yankee151
Hot Girl Summer
I feel pretty comfortable saying Fulham and Cardiff are going down, No idea who the 3rd team will be out of Swansea, Norwich, Sunderland, and WBA. Poyet has turned around Sunderland pretty well. Would be shocking to see Swansea go down with their passing rate/possesion being best in the league.
Orangebird
Premier League Champs
They held them to one goal at the Etihad. It's certainly possible.
Larry Fitzgerald
Well-Known Member
Well, the goalkeeper does have to wear a different shirt than the other players.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
Hahahahahahaha, Ox. Hahahahahahaha, the ref sends off the wrong guy? Hahahahahahahah
Orangebird
Premier League Champs
Larry Fitzgerald
Well-Known Member
This is one of those games where Arsenal should have just stayed in bed.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
This is Wenger's 1,000 game in charge. Arsenal won their last trophy in his 497th. Wow.
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Wenger hasn't signed a new contract yet. I'm worried that Arsenal could have a ManU like season if he leaves. Even though on paper this team looks decent, they haven't shown anything good against the top 4 (plus ManU). Maybe it's a mental thing, but this is fucking ridiculous.
