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Base Stealing

Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
Is there a way to pull the league-wide caught stealing percentage?

Both the UBL and the WBL seem to have way too high a caught stealing rate. I thought this was an OOTP issue but recently read on the forums that there's a league setting for this.

Here's the post in question:

If CS is too high the league settings are off. The real MLB average SB% has varied little in a decade (71%-74%). This is completely controllable in OOTP and in my experience very stable and reproducible. The league commissioners should check league stat output then adjust league total modifiers related to SB success and SB attempts.

Now one negative is that SB success by individual players is more widely distributed ie you will see a bunch of 70%-80% guys but not enough 85% guys. That's understandable in a ratings based sim IMO. This could occur because of player ratings distribution and/or AI strategy. This may or may not matter to you. The key point is you can get realistic CS%.
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Lloyd Carr

Lloyd Carr

Well-Known Member
I feel like our CS% is higher than it should be, but that's just based off my own anecdotal experiences.
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
Yes, all my experience is anecdotal, although I've had PM threads with some members here about it. Hoping OU can pull the league-wide stats.

I had this same issue in offline leagues; I didn't know there was a league modifier though.
 
Karl Hungus

Karl Hungus

Here to fix the cable
This is just for starting catchers last year-

Amsterdam- 38.8 (60 arm)
Berlin- 39.7 (40 arm)
Dublin- 35.9 (55 arm)
Borg- 37.9 (55 arm)
Istanbul- 34.4 (60 arm)
Vegas- 25.8 (45 arm)
Moscow- 46.7 (65 arm)
Seoul- 40.4 (80 arm)

Stralia- 40.7 (50 arm) (Charles 28.7/ 60 arm)
BR- 33.9 (60 arm)
BA- 40.4 (55 arm)
Buff- 25.9 (40 arm)
Cairo- 32.1 (45 arm)
FB- 32.7 (55 arm)
Kabul- 37.0 (65 arm)
KW - Unknown
 
osick87

osick87

Well-Known Member
Community Liaison
There's more into it than just the Catching rating. I'm sure SP's Hold Runner stats have a decent amount to do with it.
 
Gooksta

Gooksta

Well-Known Member
Yeah. Hold runner for pitchers.. the hold slider in the strategy section also would be factors
 
Wendell Gee

Wendell Gee

dawg_gone parrothead
If you guys want to make a change, go ahead. I'll adapt to it. When I came into the league, I looked at the data, saw how things were, and adjusted to them. Somebody else looks at the data, and instead of adjusting to it, they ask the gubmint for a change. No knock against Radford, I'm glad you're here Rad, but I do feel a bit blindsided. This was one of my little competitive advantages. I would say it's one reason I valued Pei Wei highly enough to make the Padilla trade, and I would say it's probably what enabled me to eke out a wildcard spot over Karl by two games. And certainly that game 2 win over Helga in the lambship which ended with Zippo throwing out a runner at second. It's the little things man.

Also, anyone not on board with my dig against LC:

Lloyd Carr said:
That's Donatello. I told you I wanted him, but you told me to go to hell.
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I didn't really tell him to go to hell in our PM. But I'll roll with it. :laughing:
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
If we did change it would be a very gradual change over an extended period, im not going to change the success rate of something 10% in one year. Dont worry wendell
 
Wendell Gee

Wendell Gee

dawg_gone parrothead
OU11 said:
If we did change it would be a very gradual change over an extended period, im not going to change the success rate of something 10% in one year. Dont worry wendell
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Aight. I got no problem with that. Real question is why do I get so damn crotchety about a game.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
I really don't know how to pull overall league stats for certain years, is that something you do with the almanac by chance @Wendell Gee? I'm looking around in OOTP and there doesn't seem to be anything easy, might have to load up the stats in a spreadsheet and average it manually.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
also I looked at the modifiers for all of the stats and stolen base % is at 1 which is default. The default means that the league should average around 66%. Better thieves will be higher of course.
 
Wendell Gee

Wendell Gee

dawg_gone parrothead
Don't know. I think the first check was the league setup modifier, which you found to be default. Second step may be to spot check some of Helga's and Key's criminals. @Gooksta and @Orlando both like to run.

It could potentially be that we have a high proportion of pitchers with high hold-runner ratings. Hold runner prevents them from getting a big lead which would cut down on SB success rate. We already know our league is skewed in other ways.
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
Wendell Gee said:
If you guys want to make a change, go ahead. I'll adapt to it. When I came into the league, I looked at the data, saw how things were, and adjusted to them. Somebody else looks at the data, and instead of adjusting to it, they ask the gubmint for a change. No knock against Radford, I'm glad you're here Rad, but I do feel a bit blindsided. This was one of my little competitive advantages.
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I just asked if OU could pull the data. If it's way out of whack there could be a gradual change. I imagined a change in like 3 years or something.

I'm just sick of having players with stealing: 80, baserunning: 80, speed: 80 get 50 steals and get thrown out 33 times. It's lame.

I've been aware of this since UBL if you recall and back in the UBL I ran similar strategy sliders to you for a few seasons. I just didn't know there was a way to fix it until yesterday.

I think in general we should be very cautious adjusting league sliders since the league stats have ebbs and flows. But stolen bases have always been broken for me offline and in our online league so I got excited and posted.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Mr. Radpants said:
I just asked if OU could pull the data. If it's way out of whack there could be a gradual change. I imagined a change in like 3 years or something.

I'm just sick of having players with stealing: 80, baserunning: 80, speed: 80 get 50 steals and get thrown out 33 times. It's lame.

I've been aware of this since UBL if you recall and back in the UBL I ran similar strategy sliders to you for a few seasons. I just didn't know there was a way to fix it until yesterday.

I think in general we should be very cautious adjusting league sliders since the league stats have ebbs and flows. But stolen bases have always been broken for me offline and in our online league so I got excited and posted.
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Do you know how to pull the league data? Btw, Zo has a lifetime success rate of 72.7%. If they are getting thrown out 33 times you are running too much unless they are getting 66 SB. Is 66% not what the league average should be?
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Rad these are the top guys. Looks like the best you can do is about 76%

OcUlsAu.png
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
The real MLB average SB% has varied little in a decade (71%-74%). Good base stealers should be higher but I'm not sure we could ever replicate in OOTP.

For example this year,
Lorenzo Cain was 28 SBs 5 CS
Altuve was 56 SBs 9 CS
Ellsbury 39 SBs 5 CS (Last year he was 52:4)

I am finding some pretty efficient seasons this past year in the WBL, at least more so than I've seen before.

I'm not sure about pulling league data let me check.
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
You might be using current MLB efficiency break-evens, I didn't realize they had gotten that low.

Found some pretty cool team specific formulas for this.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Mr. Radpants said:
You might be using current MLB efficiency break-evens, I didn't realize they had gotten that low.

Found some pretty cool team specific formulas for this.
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The OOTP forums told me that was the break even point. They also said that a career 75% guy is fairly rare, not something you should see 50 a generation of. Those guys I pictured are the career numbers for SB, 76% is pretty good. That is 10% over the threshold for a career. I do agree the better guys should be better, but I don't want to skew the whole league to where average is gaining a run a year per player.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
Another thing is you can't run them too much. I put Zo at the extreme end of the slider last year and he was 24/15. When I put him near the middle he gets 33/6 type seasons.
 
Mr. Radpants

Mr. Radpants

Trog Five Standing By
OU11 said:
The OOTP forums told me that was the break even point. They also said that a career 75% guy is fairly rare, not something you should see 50 a generation of.
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You mean in OOTP? Because there are over 50 active right now in MLB. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/stolen_base_perc_career.shtml

Those guys I pictured are the career numbers for SB, 76% is pretty good. That is 10% over the threshold for a career. I do agree the better guys should be better, but I don't want to skew the whole league to where average is gaining a run a year per player.
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I view the league as skewed already, since it's so far from MLB norms.
 
OU11

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
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