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2021 HEINEKEN

bruin228

Well-Known Member
NCAA Moderator
That decision to kick by Taylor was so NASHNUL. Even if he makes it, you’re up by 2 with Rivers beep booping all game. If you can’t get a few inches, you deserve to lose anyway. I swear these corches think kicking is just like Madden where you press a few buttons and it goes in. Kickers are headcases
 

kella

Low IQ fat ass with depression and anxiety
Staff member
Administrator
Operations
The refs trying to flag the most innocuous hit on Rogers lol
 

goblue96

Disney and Curling Expert
Why don’t we just contract New Jersey

giphy.gif
 

kella

Low IQ fat ass with depression and anxiety
Staff member
Administrator
Operations
What a lazy ass throw by FRAUDGERS
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
That decision to kick by Taylor was so NASHNUL. Even if he makes it, you’re up by 2 with Rivers beep booping all game. If you can’t get a few inches, you deserve to lose anyway. I swear these corches think kicking is just like Madden where you press a few buttons and it goes in. Kickers are headcases

lol @ "like Madden"

I haven't made a kick yet in Madden!
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
Well you have the twitch skills of a far, far older man so

For some reason they returned to the OLD method of kicking with button presses... but with LAG on EA's fuckshit servers it's always a crap shoot, lol. I also think there must be a glitch people can do to cause the lag, because the game runs fine until I get a game winning FG chance, then it's a fucking slideshow? HMMMMMMMMMMM
 

kella

Low IQ fat ass with depression and anxiety
Staff member
Administrator
Operations
Based on his forearm alone that man is 330lb and zero muscle
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
I haven't been watching this year. How are the Jets doing? Thinking of getting a game pass subscription if they"re doing ok.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Did anybody see the end of the Titans/Houston game? I thought I saw this real time but I had to go back to check to make sure, but Vrabel had one of the smartest FOOTBAW corching decisions I've seen in a long time:

Houston has a 2nd and 1 from like the 15, so he intentionally sends 12 players on the field to give them a first down AND stop the clock. It basically forced Houston to only have one more first down to run clock while also stopping the clock on the first down (obviously very high odds of them picking it up). On the broadcast, you can see a Titans player looking over and asking him wtf is going on and Vrabel gives him one of those "hand pushing down 'relax' motions."

I know nfl corches are generally mongs but fair play to him for that. There's stuff like this that should happen literally every game but no one asks anyone who would know/corches worried about the backlash. Refreshing to not see obvious advantages thrown away and in this case it probably won them the game
 

jamesnathan

Resident Mormon
Did anybody see the end of the Titans/Houston game? I thought I saw this real time but I had to go back to check to make sure, but Vrabel had one of the smartest FOOTBAW corching decisions I've seen in a long time:

Houston has a 2nd and 1 from like the 15, so he intentionally sends 12 players on the field to give them a first down AND stop the clock. It basically forced Houston to only have one more first down to run clock while also stopping the clock on the first down (obviously very high odds of them picking it up). On the broadcast, you can see a Titans player looking over and asking him wtf is going on and Vrabel gives him one of those "hand pushing down 'relax' motions."

I know nfl corches are generally mongs but fair play to him for that. There's stuff like this that should happen literally every game but no one asks anyone who would know/corches worried about the backlash. Refreshing to not see obvious advantages thrown away and in this case it probably won them the game

I wondered if it helped knowing that the HC on the other side probably won't be there the next few seasons, so less chance of backlash? Houston should have got for the PAT. The Titans still could have won, but it would have made it a little more difficult.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
fuck backlash, how many times since vrabel pulled that during the playoffs (which I'm sure every NFL corch was watching) has a team been in basically the exact same position and didn't do it? these people are just idiots.

i was fine with going for 2 - and in retrospect knowing that the titans kick the XP you DEFINITELY go for it
 

jamesnathan

Resident Mormon
fuck backlash, how many times since vrabel pulled that during the playoffs (which I'm sure every NFL corch was watching) has a team been in basically the exact same position and didn't do it? these people are just idiots.

i was fine with going for 2 - and in retrospect knowing that the titans kick the XP you DEFINITELY go for it

If Houston makes the PAT, they are up 8. It forces the Titans to go for two. Again, maybe they convert and still win in OT. But at least make them attempt the 2, which is more difficult to convert than the 1. Just make it a little harder. Then again, maybe they thought they had the right play call. If the pass hadn't been batted, they would have converted.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
quick math here, we'll assume 50/50 on 2 pt conversions and a 20% chance the titans score (probably less but idk for sure)

if you go for two and get it, you win 100% of the time. so there's a 50% chance of that

50% chance you don't get it, and then from there a 20% chance they score AND then a 50/50 shot they win in overtime = .5 * .2 * .5 = 5% of losing, so overall a 95% chance of winning

kick the xp (we'll assume they make it 100% of the time, but they certainly don't), 20% of the time they score and then 50/50 shot in OT = .2 * .5 = 10% chance of losing, 90% chance of winning


if you actually calculated this out, it'd be way worse for Houston, because they don't make the XP 100% of the time and because they are the worse team, they lose more often than 50% of the time in OT (which, since we know tenn kicks the XP, is the only way they lose). maybe the chance of tenn scoring is less but that mostly washes out on both sides
 

NML

Well-Known Member
sorry for the math problem, but little shit like this happens all the time in the NFL (and college) and its so frustrating to watch people throw their chances of winning away - or, even worse, fans attack coaches for smart decisions. going for two roughly cut their chances in losing in half, but i have no doubt the twitter mongs are out in full force for that "awful decision"
 

NML

Well-Known Member
actually i forgot the 50/50 for going for two, so i guess that does work out to be close to even on the surface, but i maintain that knowing that houston is worse means you push for the two
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
When does advanced analytics hit footbaw? It's been a while since I've stats but is it really .5 even if you convert at .25 for example? I know there are two outcomes so in a pure sense they should be 50/50 but surely that data on how successful you are would play into it right? Otherwise PATs would be 50/50 chance too.
 

evil1

Well-Known Member
I think ESPN calculated the chances and said Houston had a 98.2% chance of winning if they kicked the extra point, and a 98.1% chance of winning if they went for two. So essentially the same either way.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
what's weird is people think of this basic math as "advanced analytics" but its obviously not. i feel like every time i saw a Ravens game last year they talked about the one guy they hired for ANALYTICS who basically told them to go for it on 4th down more lol

PATs are around 94% i believe, but 2 points are actually like 48% or something. however - and this is mostly speculation - teams probably have kickers take 1000 XPs a week and they have like two plays they practice a few times that they might use at the 2. you also have some offenses who are better and some kickers who are worse, so its all relative

weirdly, the jags were the first team i'd saw for go 2 when down 9 a couple weeks ago, then the cowboys did at the 4:00 slate and ended up winning because, surprise, knowing you need two scores is way better when there's 6:00 minutes on the clock then being down 2 with 11 seconds left.
 
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