That's pretty close to what I saw, I believe.
The results will vary, but their rating does not.But wouldn’t 80 power vary based on the other players? i.e. the top 2.2% (or 80 rating) of power hitters may hit 50 homers during one year but may hit 65 the next decade
In addition, if you had an 80 power hitter vs 50 stuff pitchers compared to 70 stuff, that would alter things as well
Edit: or is 10 a standard deviation? For some reason I thought it was 15
Not including injuries makes everything afterward pointless.
Last season my sim model actually predicted a NDR WS win. I deleted it and never talked about it because I didn’t want to believe @Travis7401 would finally have a comeback to my “I got two WS and you ain’t got shit” posts.
I think the regular season results are generally pretty insulated from injury and reflect quality depth throughout the entire roster. That's why I think my MODEL generally did well predicting my regular season win totals. Everyone has injuries at some point and teams without depth get hit hardest. I think the playoffs tend to be the opposite, and highlight star power rather than depth, therefore an injury to a star player can really hurt your playoff chances more than it would in the regular season.
I think that difference explains why a lot of 4 seeds win the ship in this league when they might not have a great overall roster, but have some amazing star players and avoid injury to those players during the playoffs. I lost several playoff series where I clearly had the better TEAM throughout the season, but when you looked at the best 3-4 starting pitchers, best 2 BP pitchers, and starting lineups I actually was at a disadvantage compared to the "4 seed."
The exception to my injury/regular season thing is when you do have some decent depth but just happen to lose all the players from the same position, including your depth. I've had that happen before and I believe it happened @Karl Hungus 's OF last year. When you have an injury or two and you have to start some SCRUB player, that's a depth problem. When you have 5 injuries in the OF at one time, that's just bad luck.
I just don’t think I could accurately predict injuries. Even if I had good research into how often a fragile player gets hurt, for example, people use those players in different ways that will limit/increase those injuries.
I think that difference explains why a lot of 4 seeds win the ship in this league when they might not have a great overall roster, but have some amazing star players and avoid injury to those players during the playoffs. I lost several playoff series where I clearly had the better TEAM throughout the season, but when you looked at the best 3-4 starting pitchers, best 2 BP pitchers, and starting lineups I actually was at a disadvantage compared to the "4 seed."
It wasn't so much that he came in, it was that he came in and played like a GOD
This is just called gittin’ gud.Well it certainly influenced my latest build! I set a goal to get the 3 best SPs and 2 best RPs I could, rather than just throwing a bunch of rigger pitchers out there, as is tradition.
Haha I don’t remember. It must’ve been in the season thread. That was like three analysis ago doe