• Hello Guest. We are upgrading the server's XenForo versions. This has to be done in stages. 1.5.18 ---> 1.5.23 ---> 2.0.0 ---> 2.0.12 ---> 2.1.0. I will likely upgrade each one and leave it for a day or so to see if there's any kinks. When moving from 1.x to 2.x, our add-ons will cease to work. Much of the functionality of said add-ons is now native within XenForo 2.x, so I don't think we'll miss much if anything. IF we are, we can try out new 2.x XF add-ons.

Travis7401's Newsletter! Subscribe Today!

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#1
February 2016 Edition - BTT Depth Chart Analysis Tool
Suggested Donation - 4th round pick for my analysis (but I will send the tool for free to anyone who wants)
How to receive - PM me your email address and I will send it.

I will post a video about it tonight, but based on my BTT WAR calculations (Based on 140 games). I then created a tool to help analyze which players should be playing in which positions and where platoons might be beneficial!

Here is a screen shot of how I used it on my outfield to investigate expected WARs a player has at each position and I looked at their L/R splits Based on the position I'd most likely have them play.

Then I allocated 162 games for each position (With a note to try and use Jose Vigil as a sub against RHP only). Starters getting 145 games and Jose Vigil getting 17 games at each position. Total predicted Wars for my outfield = 9.1

Blue Shaded Columns are User inputs, Green shaded columns are calculations.



Video showing how to input data and explaining everything:

Video showing how I broke down my roster and assigned starts (plan at least)
 
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Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#3
The thing is I did all the work! You just send me a 4th round pick and I'll provide you with my detailed analysis of ur team with my suggestions. (SPOILER ALERT, NO MORE ZO IN FIELD)
 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
#5
The thing is I did all the work! You just send me a 4th round pick and I'll provide you with my detailed analysis of ur team with my suggestions. (SPOILER ALERT, NO MORE ZO IN FIELD)
Well then it doesn't do me much good does it? Zo has to be in the field.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#9
Here is a trial analysis I did for HEL

My recommendations:

1. Sign a different Utility infield player and have Aluera learn 2B in AAA this season so he can be called up next year.
2. Upgrade at 2B
3. Upgrade at C starter
4. Fashion smoother wheels for TillstromBot so he has more range at 3B and cross train him at 1B so he can spell Weber

 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#13
I guess he got hit in the head with a baseball or something and forgot everything he knew. Stealing and baserunning still on point tho
I can't wait to see what Douglass looks like at that age. He started with a worse bat than Zo has now... if his defense declines to nothing it is going to be rough. Good thing he provides 10 Talisman WARS
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#22
He was named after Frederick Douglass! His mother was a voodoo woman and his father was a time child, but the OOTP community might not be ready for that "pop secret" yet.
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#29
The next NEWSLETTER! For March is going to be a tool aimed at projecting the potential positional and defensive abilities of players you are drafting or developing, based on their fielding ratings. This will help you when using the BTT WAR calculator to project the player's potential defensive contribution. I already did a bit of this in the previous draft tools, but it only had one level of projection (ie can they play that position or can't they) and didn't really quantify how good they'd be. This tool will take that a step farther and project which positions they could play and how well.

The first step in this project is to evaluate the 2054 defensive statistics position by position and come up with threshold values for each level of performance.

Here's the table I came up with for the CF position. I was surprised to see that nobody less than 70 OF range had a positional rating of 65 or higher at CF

[xtable=skin1|561x@]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=79x@}CF Ability{/td}
{td=79x@}POS Value{/td}
{td=79x@}DEF Value{/td}
{td=78x@}Min CF POS{/td}
{td=83x@}Min OF RNG{/td}
{td=78x@}Min OF ERR{/td}
{td=85x@}Min OF ARM{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Serviceable{/td}
{td}1.0{/td}
{td}0.0{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Good{/td}
{td}1.0{/td}
{td}0.5{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{td}55{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Great{/td}
{td}1.0{/td}
{td}1.0{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}65{/td}
{td}60{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
 

Yankee151

TWINK Stadium
#31
CF is really hard to judge though, Desi and CALKHOVENADES would be considered only Good because of their range (though their arm and error ratings are significantly better than minimum so maybe it's a bad example anyways) but they've put up better defensive stats than say, Mason Brett (Calkhoven better in all 3 stats, Desi better in ZR and EFF but worse in range). To be fair though, defensive stats are all pretty awful so it's not surprising

edit similar story with Alfie
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#32
CF is really hard to judge though, Desi and CALKHOVENADES would be considered only Good because of their range (though their arm and error ratings are significantly better than minimum so maybe it's a bad example anyways) but they've put up better defensive stats than say, Mason Brett (Calkhoven better in all 3 stats, Desi better in ZR and EFF but worse in range). To be fair though, defensive stats are all pretty awful so it's not surprising

edit similar story with Alfie
Yeah, those are just minimum values for each range, the combination of ratings must be higher than that for them to project +0.5 WAR for a good defender and +1.0 WAR for a great defender. This is also tough because many of these players play multiple positions during the season and I can only pull total ZR values. Plus it is like hitting a constantly moving target because these ratings are always changing (see below). ZR values are also partially park factor driven, which further complicates things. Players in hitters parks typically put up higher ZR values for their ratings. In my park, my LF needs more range than my RF to put up positive ZR.

Examples you brought up:

I'd say Calkhoven falls into the "Good" category. His ZR and EFF Put him at a little over +0.5 WAR (+.7 or +.8 WAR range at CF he had more at LF that boosted his overall ZR and EFF) but fielding stats notoriously suffer from small sample size, so it pairs up with his +4 ZR the season before to come up with around a +0.5 WAR average.

Desi used to be 65 positional with 70 range, 70 ERR, 65 ARM, according to my 2053 snapshot in time which puts him in the GREAT category and matches his statistical performance from 2051 to 2053 of over +1 WAR from defense alone. His ratings according to OSA are now 60 positional with 65 range, 65 ERR, 70 ARM which puts him in the good category and I'm guessing they changed as his ZR started to drop a bit last season. My guess is that he's somewhere between good and great (0.5 - 1 WAR) next season based on his current ratings, but these things are fluid.

Mason's stats always put him in the "Good" category but he hasn't had a "great" season yet. Either OSA is a little high on his ratings (My scout's ratings seem more accurate having him at 65 range) or my park factors hurt his ZR a bit or a combination of both.
 

Orlando

Well-Known Member
Utopia Moderator
#33
CF is really hard to judge though, Desi and CALKHOVENADES would be considered only Good because of their range (though their arm and error ratings are significantly better than minimum so maybe it's a bad example anyways) but they've put up better defensive stats than say, Mason Brett (Calkhoven better in all 3 stats, Desi better in ZR and EFF but worse in range). To be fair though, defensive stats are all pretty awful so it's not surprising

edit similar story with Alfie
They are all worse than Razor
 

Travis7401

Douglass Tagg
Community Liaison
#46
BUMP:

DOUGLAS AND DECKERADES DYNAMIC TALISMANIC DUO COMBINE FOR +8.6 TALISMAN WARS WON FOR THE BATTERS ALONE!

Here is the end result of my BTT spreadsheet vs Reality for NDR (with GS distributed as they actually happened during the season). I'm pretty pleased with the predictive tools vs reality. I think my team performed better than predicted primarily because they had extremely high morale, great locker room chemistry all season, and the OOTP GODS smiled upon us throughout the season as well, so I wouldn't adjust predicted values down based on my team over performing, because I would expect to see results being under projected for teams that had rough seasons.

I think what I like most about this tool is that it really allows me to see what sort of value I can get by platooning average players to their strong side.

 

OU11

Pleighboi
Utopia Moderator
#49
Do you do anything with salaries? I sometimes do when planning extensions and I hate copy and pastaing into excel or googlesheets and having to retype all the salaries so they are recognized as numbers. What wizardry does it have to make that streamlined
 

Wooly

Well-Known Member
#50
Give @Wooly that spreadsheet for Amsterdam, his L/R lineups need some work
I'll look at it. I have not put a lot of time into that analysis, concentrating on the pitching thus far. I set the handedness to be as alternating as possible. That way it's harder to use a reliever to get past a run producing situation late in games. Our team is about generating runs, so we win a lot of games by beating up on relievers, even if the starter was good.