i dont get the "complete team" thing. are you basing the D off stats? we are a few weeks away from stats telling a story especially for oregon since theyve had a 2 game schedule (which isnt their fault)
This early in the season I try not to base it off of team stats per se. Aside from just watching the games I’m looking at individual grade systems like PFF when I can get them, charting where I can find it. For example, according to PFF Oregon’s DL has 5 of the 10 highest graded players in the pac12. I’ve mentioned one consistent source that I use, hythloday, and if you’re paying attention to Oregon football his articles are a must read. He does a preview and a retrospective every week. He’s the guy I mentioned that charts everyone.
there's no evidence at all that oregon has a "good to great" defense. UW and TTU had no problems at all moving the ball and at no point did the defense look dominant. they gave up a TD or more in 7 of 8 quarters. TTU had 4 tds drive of 75 yards or more. they are gonna play much better offenses than TTU. relative to last year which was an awful group they are better.
their total D is high but the rest of their schedule is atrocious offenses + i guess colorado who ran into a buzzsaw and cant run.
UW is a really unique challenge given their QB+WR talent but they scored on 5 of 10 drives. Funnily enough, my prediction of 42-31 Oregon was based on 5 scoring drives for UW (but I thought Oregon would also stop them for a FG somewhere in there rather than a TD). The only other team that held them to 5 scoring drives this season was Arizona, also on 10 drives with one turnover.
Aside from the INT that Oregon failed to capitalize on, Oregon’s comeback from 29-18 included 2 punts and a turnover on downs from Washington, with Oregon scoring on 2 drives between. Oregon gets blown out without that defensive performance. UW’s game winning drive was set up with a short field. Would things be different if UW had to drive 80+ yards instead of 50? Idk. I do know that if Oregon’s defense wasn’t significantly improved from last year that this would’ve been a blowout, though. No doubt about it.
can say what you want about lupoi's role but jonathan smith/lincoln riley is an enormous coaching mismatch.
I don’t trust lepoi. I won’t argue this.
I do wonder how much of this is structural though. Oregon runs a 3-3-5 base defense that’s essentially meant to be like a hybrid 3-4. The down linemen play like in a 3-4 where the NT controls both A gaps and the DEs play more like interior DL and they control the B gaps. This leaves a hybrid LB/DB and an EDGE (LB/DE type) to set the edges. This works in theory by spilling interior runs out to the edge where defensive speed limits run success.
UW exploited this by running to the outside with pulled linemen. This achieved two main goals: 1) it kept Oregon relatively honest against the pass and 2) it helped ameliorate for the advantage that Oregon’s DL had against the OL, especially against the interior OL.
Oregon didn’t really have an answer for this other than just better contain. Schematically, it’s a difficult adjustment.
the LBs are bad man. UW is not a good rushing team and johnson had a great game getting them in favorable down and distance. they are not a good TFL team and they sacked penix once. utah, usc, and osu are miles past any of the teams theyve faced on the ground so far. i would be worried about getting off the field.
The LB group is probably the weakest group right now but Jestin Jacobs is widely considered the best LB Oregon has and he still hasn’t taken his spot. He’s been practicing for the last two weeks but didn’t play. This part is speculative to a certain extent but you might remember him from Iowa.
the season hinges on BUCKY, james, and franklin having huge games and nix not making mistakes. the RB group is easily the best since helfrich's last year. the rest of the skill group is just a collection of OK guys.
they had one of the best pass pro lines in FBS history last year and DILLY is great. nix will never stand back there and take a hit. that isnt gonna change and they are gonna pay for that more this year with him throwing it in the dirt. they had 3 3 and outs yesterday and 3 against TTU. if he is gonna throw a bunch of dink and dunk shit they should just be pounding with BUCKY and james. theyre the best part of the team.
I mostly agree with this. I do think the WR group is better than you’re giving credit for but for some reason they have been underutilized by Willy. Bryant catches basically anything thrown his way and Tez is elusive and has chemistry with Nix. Last year’s line was an anomaly but they still have a good line overall. Nix is a bit scared this year compared to last. They don’t run the QB runs hardly at all this year and they kind of need it imo but I’m also not concerned about Nix’s pro career so.
i can understand being optimistic but to win out they would have to beat 5 teams that are objectively capable of beating them. i dont see it at all.
To me I see the wazzu line as a dealbreaker. I saw their game against UCLA and it looks like a problem. Utah is not the same as they have been in years past, their offense is just bad. If Oregon scores 21+, do you have any confidence that Utah can keep up? UCLA has a good defense but a mistake prone first year QB and no offensive line. USC is a tough game which is why I bought tickets for it, but they don’t have the matchup advantages that UW had and their defense is worse than UW’s too. The game is also at home. I feel good about that one although Caleb could be Caleb. OSU might be a problem? It’s a home game for Oregon though so I feel okay about it. Beyond that, talent as a predictor is generally supportive of the idea that Oregon should be able to beat teams like OSU more often than not. I’ll take that.
I’m not saying nor was I ever saying that I predict that Oregon will run the table. I am saying that there is enough in Oregon’s favor in my view that I believe it’s entirely possible. This isn’t like previous years where they got exposed early or had to boat race every team because their defense is bad. If you aren’t convinced I think you will be convinced by the end of the year even if they end up 10-2. This is the most complete team they’ve had in a long time.